Anyone else think the Republicans will hold the House?

[SnowLabrador]

I sure do. According to G. Elliott Morris, the undecided voters look more like GOP voters than Democratic voters. In addition, I think Trump's planning an October surprise that will drive people to his side.

What do you think?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I do.

[Xing]

I can definitely see this becoming a concern troll thread, but let me try to save it before it does. It's definitely possible that Republicans could retain the House, and Democrats should recognize this possibility, but the vast majority of evidence points to Democrats taking the House. While the polls and the results of special elections so far don't all point to a Democratic tsunami, the evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of Democrats having a good year, and even Republicans seem to at least privately acknowledge that things aren't going their way in the House. Republicans keeping their majority would definitely run contrary to what the fundamentals are saying right now.

Basically, the argument for Democrats taking the House is to look at the fundamentals, polling, Trump's approval rating, fundraising numbers, retirements, special election results, historical precedent for midterms, and much more, while the argument for Republicans keeping the House can be boiled down to "muh 2016" or "gut feelings."

[Antonio the Sixth]

In addition, I think Trump's planning an October surprise that will drive people to his side.

Yes, because if T***p is known for one thing, it's his careful planning.

[Yellowhammer]

Eh, there's about a 5% chance. Not impossible, though it almost certainly won't happen.

[Yank2133]

Ah, yes we are definitely reaching the end of campaign season when the concern-trolling threads start to pop up.

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They have pretty much conceded that the house is gone and they hope to keep the senate, while minimizing losses in the house. Anyway, yes the GOP could very well win the house. But right now, I would much rather be in the Democrats position, then the Republicans.

[Politician]

Eh, there's about a 5% chance. Not impossible, though it almost certainly won't happen.

This, but their chances are slightly better than that.

[ElectionsGuy]

Nah. Here's the thing, the house is the chamber that is much more volatile in wave years and hostile environments for the party in power. Not only is the house up everywhere in the country, but in addition, (I have no hard evidence for this, but I think most would agree with me here) people vote for the congressmen and women as more 'generic R vs generic D' than elsewhere on the ballot. Senate and other statewide races are higher profile and details in candidate differences matter more (even if they are mattering less and less nowadays). Why else would Heitkamp, Manchin, and others still hold seats in very red states while there are almost no Democrats in heavily Trump districts? This is why Republicans picked up 63 seats in 2010 but only 6 in Senate, where they made mistakes in nominating Buck, Angle, and O'Donnell, not to mention Akin and Mourdock in 2012. I can't see the Democrats losing the house when the generic ballot is so bad for the R's.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Senate and other statewide races are higher profile and details in candidate differences matter more (even if they are mattering less and less nowadays). Why else would Heitkamp, Manchin, and others still hold seats in very red states while there are almost no Democrats in heavily Trump districts?

Republicans do hold all the Senate seats in very red states that are Class II and Class III seats, with the single exception of Doug Jones in Alabama (which is a result of the national environment in this cycle, like the Class I seats).

I wouldn't say that you are entirely wrong that candidate differences matter a bit more in Senate races than house races, but the reason why there are lots of Red State dems up for re-election now is not so much that candidates matter, it is that they were not up in 2010 or 2014.

So I think the staggered once-every-6-years Senate elections has more to do with explaining that difference than candidates.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

To do that they'll have to hold some triaged seats.

[BaldEagle1991]

No.

I'd say there's more of a possibility of them holding the Senate than the House.

[Orser67]

I guess I wouldn't quite be shocked if the GOP held the House, but I would be pretty surprised. There are just too many competitive GOP-held races, and the history of mid-terms is just too tough for the party in power. Now, I would be shocked if the Democrats didn't pick up 10+ seats.

[Mr.Phips]

If Dems fail to pick up the House with all they have going for them, Pelosi would need to resign ASAP.  This is a once in a decade chance for Democrats and if the manage to blow this, heads need to roll.

[BaldEagle1991]

If Dems fail to pick up the House with all they have going for them, Pelosi would need to resign ASAP.  This is a once in a decade chance for Democrats and if the manage to blow this, heads need to roll.

I'm hoping for that too.

The only problem is I don't have a good name that could replace her.

[Mr.Phips]

If Dems fail to pick up the House with all they have going for them, Pelosi would need to resign ASAP.  This is a once in a decade chance for Democrats and if the manage to blow this, heads need to roll.

I'm hoping for that too.

The only problem is I don't have a good name that could replace her.

Someone who knows something about the game of politics, which Democrats seem to be in short supply of these days.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, they won't, Dems still have a path to control the Senate and the House, it's TX/TN and winning AZ/NV and MS and ND

[SnowLabrador]

North Dakota is Likely R flip at this point.

[DINGO Joe]

North Dakota is Likely R flip at this point.

Do you know the difference between the Senate and the House?

[Beet]

I sure do. According to G. Elliott Morris, the undecided voters look more like GOP voters than Democratic voters. In addition, I think Trump's planning an October surprise that will drive people to his side.

What do you think?

Red October?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'd love to know what the chances are of the Republicans actually GAINING seats in the House. (Probably zero.)

I'd also love to know what the chances are of the Republicans winning the nationwide popular vote for the House. (Probably zero.)

[Roronoa D. Law]

It's easy to say you think GOP will hold the house but can you actually list the seats.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Even for a pessimist like myself I say no. At worst, the Democrats take a smaller than ideal majority. I'm more worried about losing seats in the Senate.

[History505]

Extremely unlikely.

[Mr. Smith]

It's a possibility if Shalalalalol does her thing while Dems get 23 seats.

[TarHeelDem]

No (sane). A 60 seat gain blowout is likelier than missing the majority and only gaining 20.