Does it make sense for the Democrats to triage Heitkamp? (ND-SEN)

[SnowLabrador]

She hasn't led in a public poll since February, and even that was Gravis, which doesn't exactly have the best reputation on this forum. Also, the latest poll has her down by ten, and the RCP average is now Cramer +6. This seems insurmountable to me this close to the election.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

No. This is a likely tipping point race and still a winnable one.

[MycroftCZ]

No, North Dakota is key to winning the Senate and I still think that this race is close. Heitkamp is a strong campaigner and polling had her down in 2012. Still, I think she needs something, a gaffe, scandal, massive spending, etc, to move this race in her direction.

[TML]

Remember that back in 2012, she was considered a slight underdog during the final week leading up to Election Day. We all know what the actual result was back then.

In addition, 538's fundamentals favor her, and there is still plenty of time for the polls to move in that direction.

Thus, it is way too early to write her off right now. I think it is possible to play defense here and be on the offense in places like Tennessee & Texas simultaneously.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

No. She could be down 20 points and it’d be silly to triage her since it’s so cheap.

Precisely. It is cheaper to compete in ND-SEN than it is to compete in most house races.

[wbrocks67]

She hasn't led in a public poll since February, and even that was Gravis, which doesn't exactly have the best reputation on this forum. Also, the latest poll has her down by ten, and the RCP average is now Cramer +6. This seems insurmountable to me this close to the election.

I don't get why people keep using this argument. If there were 10 polls this summer, then sure "she hasn't led a single poll" has weight. But there has literally been, what, 3 polls of this race all *year*?

[TarHeelDem]

This thread is peak concern trolling. Well done.

[Former Kentuckian]

She hasn't led in a public poll since February, and even that was Gravis, which doesn't exactly have the best reputation on this forum. Also, the latest poll has her down by ten, and the RCP average is now Cramer +6. This seems insurmountable to me this close to the election.

I don't get why people keep using this argument. If there were 10 polls this summer, then sure "she hasn't led a single poll" has weight. But there has literally been, what, 3 polls of this race all *year*?

Not to mention it's difficult to poll North Dakota since they have laws about how polls can be conducted, such as banning ADAD calls

[Zaybay]

She hasn't led in a public poll since February, and even that was Gravis, which doesn't exactly have the best reputation on this forum. Also, the latest poll has her down by ten, and the RCP average is now Cramer +6. This seems insurmountable to me this close to the election.

I don't get why people keep using this argument. If there were 10 polls this summer, then sure "she hasn't led a single poll" has weight. But there has literally been, what, 3 polls of this race all *year*?

Not to mention it's difficult to poll North Dakota since they have laws about how polls can be conducted, such as banning ADAD calls

They dont even have voter registration, in any form, which is one of the multitude of reasons polling is so bad in ND.

This will be a race decided on election night, there is little point in debating otherwise.

[Xing]

Considering how little it costs and how critical ND is to gaining control of the Senate, it makes zero sense for Democrats to triage this race.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Just a friendly reminder

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

My friend says absolutely not, I want them to waste more money on ND.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No

[Pollster]

Of course not. It's next to impossible to poll the state since they don't have voter registration (and therefore no voter file) and its such a small population that modest spending can move the needle.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Say it with me:

ND POLLS ARE JUNK

[pbrower2a]

No. Low-cost TV market, possible gains from the farm and ranch vote for D's due to the tariffs (TAX INCREASE) and trade war (FALLING COMMODITY PRICES) to which anyone connected to Trump will get bad consequences.  It's a high-reward, winnable, low-cost gamble.

In a normal year she would be the Blanche Lincoln of 2018. But this looks like a bad year for Republicans. She probably goes down in flames in 2024.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

That's absurd.  They should triage Menendez before Heitkamp given the costs involve.

Unless Heitkamp votes for Kavanaugh.  In which case, yes.

[Mike Thick]

Democrats shouldn't be triaging anyone, given how flush with cash everyone appears to be at the moment

[Progressive Pessimist]

No. Keeping Democratic numbers in the Senate is too important.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats shouldn't be triaging anyone, given how flush with cash everyone appears to be at the moment

[KingSweden]

Democrats shouldn't be triaging anyone, given how flush with cash everyone appears to be at the moment