Post NJ Gov predictions here

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I typically don't like to make exact predictions for elections, but all the fuss about this one makes an exception. So post your prediction and whoever gets closest and can brag.

I'll go. Like I said in the other thread:

Corzine 53
Forrester 46

P.S. Just for predictions. Keep the fighting in the other threads and NO PA-13

[Democratic Hawk]

Corzine 52

Forrester 47

Dave

[Frodo]

Jon Corzine (D) 50.5%

Doug Forrester (R) 49.5%

[Sam Spade]

Earlier in the year, I had said Corzine 52%, Forrester 47%.

Because of New Jersey's fickle, late-breaking voters, this race is harder to predict than it looks.

I will take the opportunity to narrow the Corzine win to Corzine 51%, Forrester 48%, just because it's my feeling of how these undecided voters will break.

[nini2287]

Corzine 51.8%
Forrester 47.6%

[Flying Dog]

My prediction

(D) Jon Corzine      53%
(R) Doug Forrester 46%
     other                 1%

[Cashcow]

My original prediction was 54-45-1.

I will revise it to 51-46-3.

[AuH2O]

50/48 Corzine wins

[Jake]

Forrester - 50%
Corzine - 48%

[Flying Dog]

Forrester - 50%
Corzine - 48%

Why this outlandish prediction???

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Either close to 50/50 or a suprisingly large win for Corzine

[MHS2002]

Forrester (R) 50.7%
Corzine (D) 48.8%

Why the hell not. A shot in the dark if there ever was one.

[Flying Dog]

Forrester (R) 50.7%
Corzine (D) 48.8%

Why the hell not. A shot in the dark if there ever was one.

Hold on, I was not saying it was impossible, I just want to know why he gave that uncommon prediction

[Sarnstrom]

Corzine      53%
Forrester   45%
Others         2%

[Flying Dog]

9-corzine win
2-forrester win

[Jake]

Hold on, I was not saying it was impossible, I just want to know why he gave that uncommon prediction

Because the trend is to Forrester at the moment and I'm predicting an undecided break of at least 2 to 1 to Forrester.

[Moooooo]

Im not ready to predict yet. 

Isnt there still one more debate?

[Speed of Sound]

Corzine-51%

Forrestor-48%

Other-1%

[Flying Dog]

Hold on, I was not saying it was impossible, I just want to know why he gave that uncommon prediction

Because the trend is to Forrester at the moment and I'm predicting an undecided break of at least 2 to 1 to Forrester.

thank you for answering my question. i still disagree though

[J. J.]

50%-48%

Who will win? I don't know.

I agree with Dick Nixon.  This is a 2 point race.  I'm a pessimist and predict Corzine.

[Flying Dog]

50%-48%

Who will win? I don't know.

I agree with Dick Nixon.  This is a 2 point race.  I'm a pessimist and predict Corzine.

I am optimistic and predict corzine, hey we agree

[Sam Spade]

Either close to 50/50 or a suprisingly large win for Corzine

As New Jersey goes, this is probably the safe prediction for now with Corzine ahead in the polls roughly 6%-8%.  However, it has been a week since the last major poll, so things may have changed since then.

New Jersey has a strong number of voters (roughly 10-15% in most races) that are classic Independents and last minute movers.  Sometimes they move together, other times they don't.

Folks at this site note that in the 1990s and 2000s, these voters have broken Democratic at the Presidential level.  The statewide level can be different, however, as the past has shown.

If they break even, Corzine would win by the 6%-8% margin.  If they break 2-1 or 3-1 in Corzine's favor, Corzine wins by probably 10%-14%.

However, if they break strongly towards Forrester in 2-1 or 3-1 margin, you have the potential of a race a la Christie Todd Whitman in 1993.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Corzine wins 53-46.

[Smash255]

Corzine wins 53-46.

[Alcon]

Corzine 61.32%
Forrester 33.56%
Forchions 5.12%