Given the triages so far...
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 28, 2024, 10:05:29 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Given the triages so far...		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Given the triages so far...  (Read 877 times)
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,281
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 03, 2018, 01:55:34 AM »
It seems that the Democrats may already have a floor that's just a few seats short of a house majority already.

Looking at polling and reports of triages, bar an extreme late shift towards the GOP, Democrats seem all but guaranteed to pick up the following seats:

AZ-02
CA-49
CO-06
FL-27
IA-01
KS-03
MI-08
MI-11
MN-02
MN-03
NJ-02
NJ-03
NJ-11
NY-22
at least net +3 in PA
VA-10

This is already 18 seats, meaning that Democrats would only need to need to net five out of a vast pool of competitive seats to take the chamber.

In addition, Dems have already locked up seats where they appear to be heavily disadvantaged on paper, such as KS-03 and the MI seats (all R+4) and NY-22 (R+6). Not to mention MacArthur is getting run over despite being a GOP leader in an R+3 district.

Based on this, I'd say Democrats are in an exceptionally good position to take the House.


(special thanks to Sven/Cactus Jack/whatever you want to call him for helping with this #analysis)
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2018, 03:26:24 AM »
You forgot to take into account that Donna Shalala is a weaker candidate than Roy Moore.
Logged
Technocracy Timmy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,640
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2018, 03:48:38 AM »
I hope you are aware that VA-10 voted double digits for George W. Bush. Comstock is still in this.
Logged
AtorBoltox
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,043


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2018, 03:55:18 AM »
You mean the democrats are the overwhelming favorites to take the house? What a shocker?
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2018, 06:37:02 AM »
Quote from: AtorBoltox on October 03, 2018, 03:55:18 AM
You mean the democrats are the overwhelming favorites to take the house? What a shocker?
Impossible, RRH comments section told me Republicans are favored to hold the House. Also, I'd add CA-45 to your list.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,247
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2018, 07:56:48 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on October 03, 2018, 03:26:24 AM
You forgot to take into account that Donna Shalala is a weaker candidate than Roy Moore.
And muh Scott Wallace is so weak he will lose a seat that Wolf will win by 15 points!
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,527
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2018, 08:47:49 AM »
NRCC has jumped back into CO-06.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,247
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2018, 10:42:49 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 03, 2018, 08:47:49 AM
NRCC has jumped back into CO-06.


Bozos!
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,667
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2018, 11:49:39 AM »
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbedk on October 03, 2018, 10:42:49 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 03, 2018, 08:47:49 AM
NRCC has jumped back into CO-06.


Bozos!


Maybe he's improved or maybe simply improved relative to what is happening with everyone else.
Logged
ltomlinson31
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 448
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2018, 11:51:01 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 03, 2018, 08:47:49 AM
NRCC has jumped back into CO-06.



I don't think the NRCC ever triaged CO-06. It was the CLF who did that.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,546


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2018, 04:45:43 PM »
Quote from: Technocracy Timmy on October 03, 2018, 03:48:38 AM
I hope you are aware that VA-10 voted double digits for George W. Bush. Comstock is still in this.

And WV-03 voted for Dukakis and Clinton by double digits, so Ojeda should have a great chance there.
Logged
UncleSam
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,513


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2018, 05:24:39 PM »
It’s hard to argue all of these are triaged.

That being said, yes, Dems are shaping up to be big favorites in the house. Something something counting chickens though...
Logged
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,281
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2018, 12:16:52 PM »
I can't believe I'm saying this, but I actually think CA-45 might also be on the list. Walters appears to have dropped the ball bigtime.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.038 seconds with 12 queries.