Which combination of results is most likely in ND & TN?
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  Which combination of results is most likely in ND & TN?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Which of these combinations of results is most likely?
#1
ND-D + TN-D		  
#2
ND-D + TN-R		  
#3
ND-R + TN-D		  
#4
ND-R + TN-R		  
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Author Topic: Which combination of results is most likely in ND & TN?  (Read 1045 times)
TML
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 01, 2018, 11:02:02 PM »
At this time, polls suggest ND-R + TN-D, but 538's fundamentals suggest ND-D + TN-R.

538 also mentions that these races are correlated to a meaningful degree, which suggests that it wouldn't take much to shift them both in the same general direction (one way or the other).

What do you guys think?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2018, 11:03:44 PM »
Republicans win both.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2018, 11:05:53 PM »
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2018, 11:06:46 PM »
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2018, 12:14:31 AM »
I'm a believer in the possibility of ND-R TN-D, but Republicans win both is probably the most likely.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2018, 12:21:30 AM »
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andjey
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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2018, 12:38:28 AM »
Quote from: westroopnerd on October 02, 2018, 12:14:31 AM
I'm a believer in the possibility of ND-R TN-D, but Republicans win both is probably the most likely.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2018, 10:11:54 AM »

I would add that I still believe both races are Toss-ups, though.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2018, 10:37:27 AM »
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Del Tachi
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2018, 10:38:24 AM »
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Skye
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« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2018, 10:39:24 AM »
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Xeuma
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2018, 11:45:49 AM »
Quote from: АndriуValeriovich on October 02, 2018, 12:38:28 AM
Quote from: westroopnerd on October 02, 2018, 12:14:31 AM
I'm a believer in the possibility of ND-R TN-D, but Republicans win both is probably the most likely.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2018, 11:58:30 AM »
Rs win both is the ‘most likely’ but any of the four are possible (<10% chance). Rs win both is maybe 40% ish chance? I think ND goes D before TN in most circumstances, though it could be the other way around.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2018, 12:35:54 PM »
Cramer/Bredesen
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2018, 01:25:41 PM »
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2018, 02:01:00 PM »

Yeah, exactly.

I love how people seem to write off Bredesen because muh fundamentals while writing off Heitkamp because muh polls while forgetting that if you look at the other indicator for each race, you get the exact opposite outcome.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2018, 02:54:35 PM »
The fundamentals are pretty bad for Heidi too. She's running in a state Trump won by 36 vs a fairly popular rep who is practically an incumbent
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2018, 03:16:19 PM »
Quote from: Holy Unifying Centrist on October 02, 2018, 02:54:35 PM
The fundamentals are pretty bad for Heidi too. She's running in a state Trump won by 36 vs a fairly popular rep who is practically an incumbent

The fundamentals say she's up 6.
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2018, 03:49:48 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 02, 2018, 03:16:19 PM
Quote from: Holy Unifying Centrist on October 02, 2018, 02:54:35 PM
The fundamentals are pretty bad for Heidi too. She's running in a state Trump won by 36 vs a fairly popular rep who is practically an incumbent

The fundamentals say she's up 6.

A fundamentals model that skews the results 42 points from 2016 is not exactly a good model. 538 predicted that Hillary would win NC (she lost by over 3%).
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TML
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« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2018, 04:41:34 PM »
Quote from: Holy Unifying Centrist on October 02, 2018, 03:49:48 PM
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 02, 2018, 03:16:19 PM
Quote from: Holy Unifying Centrist on October 02, 2018, 02:54:35 PM
The fundamentals are pretty bad for Heidi too. She's running in a state Trump won by 36 vs a fairly popular rep who is practically an incumbent

The fundamentals say she's up 6.

A fundamentals model that skews the results 42 points from 2016 is not exactly a good model. 538 predicted that Hillary would win NC (she lost by over 3%).

According to 538, fundamentals are better at predicting results when there are few good-quality polls. They point out that ND has relatively few good-quality polls, so that is why they think there is a good chance the polls will move in the direction of the fundamentals between now and Election Day.

If you think the magnitude of the result skew from 2016 is big, try West Virginia, where Manchin is heavily favored to win according to 538 despite Democrats losing at the Presidential level by nearly 50 points in 2016.
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Orser67
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« Reply #20 on: October 02, 2018, 08:40:40 PM »
Rs win both: 35%
Rs win TN, lose ND: 20%
Rs lose TN, win ND: 10%
Rs lose both: 35%

I actually feel pretty good about those numbers.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #21 on: October 02, 2018, 09:28:31 PM »
Quote from: Holy Unifying Centrist on October 02, 2018, 03:49:48 PM
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 02, 2018, 03:16:19 PM
Quote from: Holy Unifying Centrist on October 02, 2018, 02:54:35 PM
The fundamentals are pretty bad for Heidi too. She's running in a state Trump won by 36 vs a fairly popular rep who is practically an incumbent

The fundamentals say she's up 6.

A fundamentals model that skews the results 42 points from 2016 is not exactly a good model. 538 predicted that Hillary would win NC (she lost by over 3%).

"I don't like what the data says because the data has been wrong once, which means it's always wrong, so I'm just going to make up my own numbers based on gut feelings."
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #22 on: October 02, 2018, 09:40:13 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 02, 2018, 09:28:31 PM
Quote from: Holy Unifying Centrist on October 02, 2018, 03:49:48 PM
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 02, 2018, 03:16:19 PM
Quote from: Holy Unifying Centrist on October 02, 2018, 02:54:35 PM
The fundamentals are pretty bad for Heidi too. She's running in a state Trump won by 36 vs a fairly popular rep who is practically an incumbent

The fundamentals say she's up 6.

A fundamentals model that skews the results 42 points from 2016 is not exactly a good model. 538 predicted that Hillary would win NC (she lost by over 3%).

"I don't like what the data says because the data has been wrong once, which means it's always wrong, so I'm just going to make up my own numbers based on gut feelings."

The data we have is that Trump won ND by 36 (a massive 16 point shift from 2012) & Heitkamp is down by 4 or more in every poll, including internals by the DCCC. Kevin Cramer has high favorables in all of these polls + the state shifted 16 points from 2012 which explains why Heitkamp could (barely) win in 2012 yet still lose in 2018.

By this logic, Manchin should be losing too, but Morrissey frequently has double digit unfavorable ratings, which explains why he is struggling hard.

My gut feelings are that Heitkamp is one of my favorite senators, so if I was going by my gut feelings, I would say Heitkamp is the best and will win. Gut feelings are worthless, though.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #23 on: October 02, 2018, 09:46:02 PM »
Which is why I'm trusting the guy who crunches the numbers over the guy who throws a bunch of impressionistic facts together and pretend they prove anything.

Heitkamp is a slight underdog right now. Nothing more, nothing less.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #24 on: October 02, 2018, 10:12:49 PM »
« Edited: October 02, 2018, 10:17:14 PM by MT Treasurer »
Pretty sure that the 538 model overestimates incumbents in general (see also: Heller, Dean).
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