ND: SRA Research- Cramer +10

[BudgieForce]

Who?

[BudgieForce]

There was a poll in October 2012 that found Berg with a 10 point lead too, interesting

Hopefully Heidi has a new newspaper to hold up when she wins.

[BudgieForce]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

But I thought the Kavanaugh controversy/Cramer's "gaffe" were going to spell doom for him? Cramer +10 is definitely hard to believe (especially if Tester is ahead by 4), but anyone who believes Cramer is the next Akin doesn’t know what they’re talking about.

Edit: Oh, this was taken before Cramer's comments. Still, not a good poll for her by any means.

Wait it was taken that long ago? Was their WV during a similar date range?

The West Virginia poll released today was done between 9/17 through 9/26.

http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/September+Survey.pdf

[BudgieForce]

Heitkamp needs to Todd Akin him, hard.

As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasn’t leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.

Because unlike this forum and Twitter users from California she realizes it would backfire. Looks like the Dems overplaying their hand with Kavanaugh has already blown up in her face and could very well cost them their chance at the Senate. Brilliant strategery. Between that and them backing corrupt clown Menendez....Dems are so bad at politics it makes me wince sometimes.

You get an inch and you take a mile.

By the looks of it, this poll was taken entirely before the hearings and Cramer's comments. While they might not make much of impact, I think its far too soon to say its blown up in anybodies faces yet.

[BudgieForce]

Just because the polls underestimated Heitkamp in 2012 doesn’t mean they will underestimate her again this year. And the difference between 2012 and 2018 is that there were actually polls showing Heitkamp up in 2012. There hasn’t been one this year since February (and that was from Gravis and had 17% undecideds), and apparently private polling has been pretty ugly for Democrats here. The ND GOP is also much more competent than MO GOP/MT GOP/etc., and Cramer isn’t as "weak" as this forum is making him out to be.

According to RCP, Heidi only lead in one poll in June and that seemed like an outlier at the time. Also, what private polling?

[BudgieForce]

......

We really need more polling of ND in general. And until I see proof, I'm not willing to buy in completely to the idea that voting against even a rapey SCOTUS nominee means CURTAINS for these people. I'd like to see solid evidence first. I can buy that Heidi is down, but not necessarily that this confirmation is killing her.

We need more polling in general. Is it me or has the amount of polling astronomically declined since 2014? Its frustrating that due to the lack of polling, one poll can set the narrative for an entire race.

[BudgieForce]

Heitkamp needs to Todd Akin him, hard.

As I've said for a while now, North Dakota strongly backs Kavanaugh and a majority of North Dakota voters likely agree with Cramer's comments. If Heitkamp wants to lose, focusing on Cramer's "Akin comments" should certainly be her strategy.

Dems really overplayed their hand and shot themselves in the foot with the Kavanaugh situation, at least in regards to their deep red state Senate incumbents.

I mean she hasn’t leaned into the Cramer stuff as hard as one thought she might after he made the comments.

Because unlike this forum and Twitter users from California she realizes it would backfire. Looks like the Dems overplaying their hand with Kavanaugh has already blown up in her face and could very well cost them their chance at the Senate. Brilliant strategery. Between that and them backing corrupt clown Menendez....Dems are so bad at politics it makes me wince sometimes.

What exactly should they have done then? I think you are forgetting how hard of a needle this is to thread, where Kavanaugh is not just any nominee, but a potential rapist nominee in the #MeToo era nominated by Donald J. Trump, another serial sexual assaulter who has currently lit a nuclear-hot fire under the collective asses of the Democratic Party. I mean... what do you expect? Even if they didn't want to fight over this confirmation with everything they had, the base demands it. You could also argue that Republicans are completely overplaying their own hands here with regards to Gardner too. This kind of issue could come back and bite him in the ass or potentially tank his favorables after the confirmation if Democrats move to weaponize it effectively. Voting for a rapist justice is something a lot of people on the left seem to be taking note of.

Regarding Menendez, it's a shame but, again, this is really just a failure of local political machines not prioritizing ethics and actually reliably winning elections over their friends and favors. Not to mention that the primary voters decided to keep him. Again, Republicans and Republican primary voters have made loads of joke decisions themselves over the years, costing them a number of important, high-profile races. So yes, not trying to oust Bob with everything they had was a dumb move, but not exactly unique in its stupidity among both parties.

-

We really need more polling of ND in general. And until I see proof, I'm not willing to buy in completely to the idea that voting against even a rapey SCOTUS nominee means CURTAINS for these people. I'd like to see solid evidence first. I can buy that Heidi is down, but not necessarily that this confirmation is killing her.

I realize the base is itching for a fight, but turning it into Waterloo probably wasn't the best idea. It might be a winning issue for them from a national perspective, but in the Senate they're trying to hold or win very red territory where both Trump and Kavanaugh are popular. It's just something that's going to polarize the electorate. This could help them in the House, but in the Senate map it's going to hurt. On top of that, he's likely to get confirmed regardless of how hard the Democrats fight, so was it really worth the political capital?

As for Gardner, he has the benefit of the election being 2 years away, so nobody will remember or care by then. And he's already an underdog regardless. It doesn't matter what Heller does because he's already DOA and has clearly embraced the strategy of praying for a miracle that Republicans turn out and Democrats don't.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't.