TN NBC/SurveyMonkey: Tie
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Author Topic: TN NBC/SurveyMonkey: Tie  (Read 1042 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: October 02, 2018, 06:50:27 AM »

http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/NBCNewsSurveyMonkeyTennesseePollToplinesMethodology102.pdf

Blackburn 42
Bredesen 42
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2018, 06:55:31 AM »

That's a whole lot of undecideds a month out. Still, not good for Bredesen if he ultimately wants to win.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2018, 06:57:57 AM »

That's a whole lot of undecideds a month out. Still, not good for Bredesen if he ultimately wants to win.

You could argue the same for Blackburn. This is a Trump +26 state where his approval is only +7, and she can barely consolidate 42% of the R-leaning electorate right now.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2018, 07:01:54 AM »

Undecided women and independents will break bigly for Bredesen. Tilt D.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2018, 07:07:54 AM »

That's a whole lot of undecideds a month out. Still, not good for Bredesen if he ultimately wants to win.

You could argue the same for Blackburn. This is a Trump +26 state where his approval is only +7, and she can barely consolidate 42% of the R-leaning electorate right now.

Which means that toward the end they will break for Blackburn. Count on it. In order for Democrats to win in deep red states, they need to be pushing very close to 50 and tied if not a little ahead. We've seen this before with Kansas and Georgia in 2014. Democrats leading in polls but on election day lose anywhere from 3-10 points.
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Person Man
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2018, 08:01:16 AM »

That's a whole lot of undecideds a month out. Still, not good for Bredesen if he ultimately wants to win.

You could argue the same for Blackburn. This is a Trump +26 state where his approval is only +7, and she can barely consolidate 42% of the R-leaning electorate right now.

Which means that toward the end they will break for Blackburn. Count on it. In order for Democrats to win in deep red states, they need to be pushing very close to 50 and tied if not a little ahead. We've seen this before with Kansas and Georgia in 2014. Democrats leading in polls but on election day lose anywhere from 3-10 points.

Maybe the underperformance of Democrats will lessen somewhat because of the nature of the cycle. Maybe it has nothing to do with the electorate and more with poor campaigning?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2018, 09:36:04 AM »

Still a Toss-up (like ND), but certainly not the best poll for Bredesen, to say the least.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2018, 10:46:53 AM »

I don't disagree with the argument that a tie here doesn't necessarily mean that this race is a pure Toss-Up. It's much better for Blackburn than Bredesen to be in a tie. However, the idea that a tie doesn't imply a pure Toss-Up doesn't only apply to this race...
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2018, 01:51:05 PM »

That's a whole lot of undecideds a month out. Still, not good for Bredesen if he ultimately wants to win.

You could argue the same for Blackburn. This is a Trump +26 state where his approval is only +7, and she can barely consolidate 42% of the R-leaning electorate right now.

Which means that toward the end they will break for Blackburn. Count on it. In order for Democrats to win in deep red states, they need to be pushing very close to 50 and tied if not a little ahead. We've seen this before with Kansas and Georgia in 2014. Democrats leading in polls but on election day lose anywhere from 3-10 points.

Maybe the underperformance of Democrats will lessen somewhat because of the nature of the cycle. Maybe it has nothing to do with the electorate and more with poor campaigning?

Undecideds in Southern States aside from FL pretty much always break R at the end though. Even if it doesn't show up in the polling super-well, the D still under performs whatever the media expected them to do. Only exception off the top of my head is VA-GOV 2017, if that even counts as a 'real' southern state anymore.
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