New poll Menendez in dead heat in NJ
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  New poll Menendez in dead heat in NJ		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: New poll Menendez in dead heat in NJ  (Read 1083 times)
jman123
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« on: October 01, 2018, 12:52:37 PM »
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/409241-menendez-challenger-locked-in-virtual-dead-heat-poll?amp

Very interesting for NJ is a dem state
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Xing
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2018, 12:59:48 PM »
There's already a (dumpster fire of a) thread about this in the polls section of this board. Let's keep the (cringeworthy) conversation over there.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2018, 01:44:53 PM »
I'll also point out that the article (which led to the title of the thread) is misleading; it's not a dead heat.  A 2-point lead is within the margin of error, but that's not a tie or dead heat.  There is no such concept as a "statistical tie".

(Sorry, one of my pet peeves.)
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2018, 03:01:43 PM »
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2018, 03:50:12 PM »
This looks about right, but Menendez will probably still win.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2018, 05:51:57 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 01, 2018, 01:44:53 PM
I'll also point out that the article (which led to the title of the thread) is misleading; it's not a dead heat.  A 2-point lead is within the margin of error, but that's not a tie or dead heat.  There is no such concept as a "statistical tie".

(Sorry, one of my pet peeves.)

I always took it that what people meant by "statistical tie" is that the race is very close and well within the MoE, so you can't really say who is winning one way or the other, similar to an actual tie.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2018, 05:55:03 PM »
https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1046879386006372354

Partick Murray, the director of Monmouth Universality's polling, has openly called out this poll.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2018, 05:59:12 PM »
They should of made Menendez retire, but Schumer won't do that, and put Frank Pallone in this seat.
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Andy Hine
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2018, 07:25:35 PM »
Menendez will probably win by double digits.
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SN2903
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2018, 09:09:18 PM »
Quote from: Andy Hine on October 01, 2018, 07:25:35 PM
Menendez will probably win by double digits.
Menendez is gonna lose.
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TML
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2018, 09:44:35 PM »

By the same token, Gillespie should have been elected Governor of Virginia.
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AMB1996
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« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2018, 10:09:55 PM »
« Edited: October 01, 2018, 10:13:50 PM by AMB1996 »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on October 01, 2018, 05:55:03 PM
https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1046879386006372354

Partick Murray, the director of Monmouth Universality's polling, has openly called out this poll.


Dog Bites Man

This is literally a man denigrating his business rival. Pat Murray is a fine pollster and Monmouth is a top outlet, but they're not above a little bit of marketing. I've voiced my concern with this poll's methodology in the other thread, but this reeks of Pat trying to cover for Monmouth's own complete failure of to accurately poll this race. I'll take a weak poll from Stockton over Monmouth completely forgetting that they're a New Jersey pollster first.

Also, this post should just be rolled into the megathread for this race.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2018, 11:53:58 AM »
Quote from: Andy Hine on October 01, 2018, 11:41:47 PM

Menendez wouldn't lose if he smacked Alexandria Ocasio Cortez's booty while simultaneously licking a picture of a dead goat. Do you really think deep blue New Jersey will vote out Menendez in this type of environment. That's a riveting opinion you have there chap.
New Jersey isn't deep blue lol
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AMB1996
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2018, 12:58:38 PM »
I think that we can all agree that RCP moving the race to toss-up is an overreaction.
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2018, 01:36:02 PM »
I will be so fucking pissed of Dems win Arizona, Nevada and Texas, hold all their Trump state Dems, and lose New Jersey giving the Republican Party the Senate majority again.

MENENDEZ DROP OUT
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2018, 02:07:27 PM »
Menendez will win by 5-10.
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Andy Hine
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« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2018, 11:28:24 PM »
Quote from: Senator Bob Hugin (R-NJ) on October 02, 2018, 11:53:58 AM
Quote from: Andy Hine on October 01, 2018, 11:41:47 PM

Menendez wouldn't lose if he smacked Alexandria Ocasio Cortez's booty while simultaneously licking a picture of a dead goat. Do you really think deep blue New Jersey will vote out Menendez in this type of environment. That's a riveting opinion you have there chap.
New Jersey isn't deep blue lol

Don't try to deny the inevitable. Titan Melendez will mop the floor with beta cuck boy Bob Hugin.
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Hammy
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« Reply #17 on: October 03, 2018, 01:37:30 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 01, 2018, 01:44:53 PM
I'll also point out that the article (which led to the title of the thread) is misleading; it's not a dead heat.  A 2-point lead is within the margin of error, but that's not a tie or dead heat.  There is no such concept as a "statistical tie".

(Sorry, one of my pet peeves.)

But doesn't a statistical tie in polling refer to the poll margin being smaller than the margin of error?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #18 on: October 03, 2018, 08:19:11 PM »
Quote from: Andy Hine on October 02, 2018, 11:28:24 PM
Quote from: Senator Bob Hugin (R-NJ) on October 02, 2018, 11:53:58 AM
Quote from: Andy Hine on October 01, 2018, 11:41:47 PM

Menendez wouldn't lose if he smacked Alexandria Ocasio Cortez's booty while simultaneously licking a picture of a dead goat. Do you really think deep blue New Jersey will vote out Menendez in this type of environment. That's a riveting opinion you have there chap.
New Jersey isn't deep blue lol

Don't try to deny the inevitable. Titan Melendez will mop the floor with beta cuck boy Bob Hugin.
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