NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2

[BudgieForce]

Stockton likes to oversample whites.

[BudgieForce]

Stockton's September poll in 2016 has Clinton +6 in NJ.

Stockton always under samples minority voters. You'd think they would have tried to correct this by now.

[BudgieForce]

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.

According to exit polls from past off-year elections in NJ, African-American's have been about 10% of the electorate (looking back at 2006 and 2017), and not 14% which is the presidential level. Same thing for Asians, they have consistently been about 3% of the electorate in past off-year elections, so this poll isn't that far off. But who knows, that could all change.

2017 had record low turnout which 2018 wont have and 2006 was 12 years ago and the state has gotten a lot less white since then.

[BudgieForce]

Seriously, if the electorate is over 80% white like Stockton is suggesting, Menendez might lose. However, the electorate in a democrat leaning midterm  is probably going to be under 70% white. I know we shouldn't unskew, but it frustrates me that Harry Enten and Nate Silver wont even point out the huge flaws in this poll.

[BudgieForce]

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.

Stockton obviously has problems that make this poll favor Hugin, but I wouldn't assume Asian voters are going to go for Menendez in any big way. I think he'll be under 60% with them.

The real problem is the undersampling of Hispanics and black voters.

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.

According to exit polls from past off-year elections in NJ, African-American's have been about 10% of the electorate (looking back at 2006 and 2017), and not 14% which is the presidential level. Same thing for Asians, they have consistently been about 3% of the electorate in past off-year elections, so this poll isn't that far off. But who knows, that could all change.

2017 had record low turnout which 2018 wont have and 2006 was 12 years ago and the state has gotten a lot less white since then.

It has also gotten a lot less non-Hispanic black since 2006. Population growth in NJ is almost entirely driven by Hispanic and especially (South) Asian populations.

Fun fact, NJ would be facing a small but significant population decline if it were not for non-whites moving and having families there.

[BudgieForce]

Ouch. That's embarrassing.

More for Stockton than Menendez.

[BudgieForce]

The poll specifically says 4% Hispanic and 8% black pre-weighting. Did they only weight by likelihood or did they also presumably weight by race?

I'm not sure how accurately you can weigh 24 people tbh. 

[BudgieForce]

Oh wow. You know its bad when someone like Patrick Murray openly calls out another pollster.

[BudgieForce]

We're getting a Fairleigh Dickinson poll on Wednesday thats apparently younger and less white. So be careful with the panic until then unless you want to end up with egg on your face.

https://twitter.com/MattFriedmanNJ/status/1046852932828897280

[BudgieForce]

We're getting a Fairleigh Dickinson poll on Wednesday thats apparently younger and less white. So be careful with the panic until then unless you want to end up with egg on your face.

https://twitter.com/MattFriedmanNJ/status/1046852932828897280

I don't see anyone panicking in this thread.

Whatever Icespear.

[BudgieForce]

We're getting a Fairleigh Dickinson poll on Wednesday thats apparently younger and less white. So be careful with the panic until then unless you want to end up with egg on your face.

https://twitter.com/MattFriedmanNJ/status/1046852932828897280

I don't see anyone panicking in this thread.

Whatever Icespear.

Okay? I was just stating an objective fact. I'm guessing it was aimed at me despite me explicitly saying Hugin would need a miracle to win. But even if it wasn't, I didn't see a single person in this thread "panicking" when I skimmed through it.

Thats the case with most of the threads in this forum. If a thread gets alot of activity, its a train-wreck. If alot of people are speaking out against a poll, their panicking. I know no one was actually panicking, it just seems like common terminology around here.

[BudgieForce]

Like I said, if the 2018 NJ electorate is +80% white like Stockton thinks it'll be, then yes, Menendez is vulnerable. However, chances are the electorate will be under 70% white and Menendez is in no actual danger. Hopefully the FDU poll tomorrow shows that.