NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2
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  NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2
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Author Topic: NJ-Stockton: Menendez +2  (Read 3787 times)
Skye
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« on: October 01, 2018, 10:06:28 AM »
« edited: October 01, 2018, 10:57:38 AM by yeah_93 »

Menendez (D, inc.)   45
Hugin (R)                 43

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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2018, 10:07:21 AM »

Likely D, due to the national environment, but Menendez would be losing in a Clinton midterm. Yet another example that candidate quality matters.
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2018, 10:10:19 AM »

Menendez, you make me sad.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2018, 10:11:28 AM »


This, but he will still win.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2018, 10:13:11 AM »

Good thing the environment will probably save him
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2018, 10:15:00 AM »

But you know that there was a major crapping of the diapers in NJ if we are more likely to win PA and MI than NJ lmao.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: October 01, 2018, 10:18:06 AM »

Safe D, Menendez will win no matter what (and would have won even in a Clinton midterm, lol) since he has that magical (D) next to his name. I donít actually blame any Democrat for voting for him, but itís sad that this scumbag made it out of the primary.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #7 on: October 01, 2018, 10:30:49 AM »

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.
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АndriуValeriovych
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« Reply #8 on: October 01, 2018, 10:34:47 AM »

Lean D
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #9 on: October 01, 2018, 10:41:02 AM »

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.

This poll also  has only a 4% Hispanic sample in a state where 18% of the population  are Hispanic.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #10 on: October 01, 2018, 10:43:42 AM »

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.

This poll also  has only a 4% Hispanic sample in a state where 18% of the population  are Hispanic.

Oh wow, I did not catch that one at first, thanks for pointing it out. Yeah I looked and they clock in at a slightly smaller 14% of the electorate usually, but that is significantly more than 4%, and they go heavier than even the generic American hispanic.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2018, 10:45:40 AM »

Yeah, I feel a little better now, if we factor in the hispanic deficit in the poll too, Menendez is probably up by 7-8.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2018, 10:46:02 AM »

New Jersey has a history of really high undecideds and nearly all undecided voters choosing the Democrat, even outside of D wave years, so I wouldn't take this too seriously as indicative of a competitive race. If the Republicans had run someone better than Hugin... maybe.
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DTC
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« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2018, 10:47:09 AM »

Good thing the environment will probably save him

More like a bad thing. Hugin would clearly be a far better Senator.

Unfortunately, this poll way under sampled miniorities, so Menendez is probably leading by much more
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #14 on: October 01, 2018, 10:47:27 AM »

Stockton likes to oversample whites.
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2018, 11:14:22 AM »

Suuuuure. Anyway, Menendez will definitely win by an underwhelming margin, but if candidate quality matters so much more than the partisan lean of a state, why isn't he losing by significantly more than any other incumbent Democrat?
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2018, 11:21:14 AM »

Good thing the environment will probably save him

More like a bad thing. Hugin would clearly be a far better Senator.
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Skye
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« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2018, 11:22:18 AM »

Suuuuure. Anyway, Menendez will definitely win by an underwhelming margin, but if candidate quality matters so much more than the partisan lean of a state, why isn't he losing by significantly more than any other incumbent Democrat?

It's obvious that the fact that this is a stubbornly Democratic state that's facing a blue wave is going to save Menendez.
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: October 01, 2018, 11:25:17 AM »

Suuuuure. Anyway, Menendez will definitely win by an underwhelming margin, but if candidate quality matters so much more than the partisan lean of a state, why isn't he losing by significantly more than any other incumbent Democrat?

It's obvious that the fact that this is a stubbornly Democratic state that's facing a blue wave is going to save Menendez.

That's exactly my point. The fact that New Jersey is a blue state and that this year is going to be Democratic-friendly have more impact on this race than Menendez being a terrible candidate.
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isoscelessquare
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« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2018, 11:32:43 AM »

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.
According to exit polls from past off-year elections in NJ, African-American's have been about 10% of the electorate (looking back at 2006 and 2017), and not 14% which is the presidential level. Same thing for Asians, they have consistently been about 3% of the electorate in past off-year elections, so this poll isn't that far off. But who knows, that could all change.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2018, 11:37:40 AM »

Stockton's September poll in 2016 has Clinton +6 in NJ.
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #21 on: October 01, 2018, 11:38:08 AM »

Woah. Didnít expect that
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KingSweden
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« Reply #22 on: October 01, 2018, 11:47:09 AM »

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.

If this is the case then the poll doesnít tell us much
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #23 on: October 01, 2018, 11:50:11 AM »

Stockton's September poll in 2016 has Clinton +6 in NJ.

Stockton always under samples minority voters. You'd think they would have tried to correct this by now.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #24 on: October 01, 2018, 11:52:01 AM »

A few brighter spots for Menendez, the poll is only 8% black, but NJ electorate is around 14% black, and asians are less than 1% of the poll, but are over 8% of NJ and a little under that in the electorate. Menendez is probably leading by 5-6.
According to exit polls from past off-year elections in NJ, African-American's have been about 10% of the electorate (looking back at 2006 and 2017), and not 14% which is the presidential level. Same thing for Asians, they have consistently been about 3% of the electorate in past off-year elections, so this poll isn't that far off. But who knows, that could all change.

2017 had record low turnout which 2018 wont have and 2006 was 12 years ago and the state has gotten a lot less white since then.
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