NH: ARG: Sununu +5

[IceSpear]

New Poll: New Hampshire Governor by ARG on 2018-09-26

Summary: D: 44%, R: 49%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[IceSpear]

But Atlas told me Sununu was guaranteed to win by 30+ points because of muh April polls. Told you guys it was gonna close at the end just like it did in 2010 and 2014.

Looks like some people owe me and MT Treasurer an apology..

[IceSpear]

Would like to see another pollster confirming this, but it's plausible that this could be close. However, Sununu is at 49%

Yeah, I think he'll end up as Lynch/Hassan 2.0. Very popular, everyone expects them to win in a massive landslide early on, then at the very end the political climate drags them down, but they still win by a modest margin. Of course, I'm sure our Montanan friend has a different theory.

I'll accept my accolades though.

Polls with this many undecideds are worthless.

But it is interesting that despite a 61% approval rating he's stuck at 41-42%. Even if Sununu wins re-election, it's very possible he could be like Hassan in 2014, who was super popular and was expected to cruise to re-election, but the political environment got a some dude relatively close.

[IceSpear]

Are we unironically taking ARG seriously?

UNH (which is also a terrible pollster, FWIW) had it closing to Sununu +15 even before the primary and with Kelly having super low name recognition, so this result is completely believable.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear and Mt Treasurer are so desperate to "prove" Sununu is highly vulnerable they're using a trash poll. What else is new?

Stage 1: Denial

The trend of this race is clear.

[IceSpear]

ARG isn't the greatest pollster, but I have no idea why you guys think UNH is more credible.

[IceSpear]

Sununu will still win due to his popularity, but it will be closer then we initially thought, same with Maryland. But enough of "NH is solid D". It could easily vote R in 2020.

The craziest part of this poll is that it shows him only up 5 despite having a +28 approval rating (56-28).