Kavanaugh case impact

[Proto]

Choose 1 or 2 options

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It will make the case for Trump not to be reelected Trump had an affair with Stormy Daniels and cheated on his wife and cheated on American electoral system. As a result, of his Kremlin cheating, he stole the Garland seat and got Kennedy to retire to steal the SCOTUS

[pbrower2a]

Little effect -- Trump's approval rating, a reflection of his low credibility and his poor reputation for overall competence, is unlikely to go much lower. It simply can't. People who believe that his choice of Bret Kavanaugh is a disaster mostly already think that the whole Presidency is a disaster.

So his approval rating nationwide goes to 33% from 38% -- he will still get about 20% of the popular vote, and that might go from 40.40% to 40.20%. I am still predicting that conservative nominees for President will still get 47% or so of the popular vote, and the only state that such a nominee can reasonably win is Utah. The Democrat is going to win a bunch of states with 45% or so of the popular vote because Trump will be getting 43% or less of the popular vote in such states as Kentucky and Tennessee.

There would be more effect if his approval ratings were around 44%. Ask next week when the statewide polls and some national polls are done this coming weekend.
     

[twenty42]

Little effect -- Trump's approval rating, a reflection of his low credibility and his poor reputation for overall competence, is unlikely to go much lower. It simply can't. People who believe that his choice of Bret Kavanaugh is a disaster mostly already think that the whole Presidency is a disaster.

So his approval rating nationwide goes to 33% from 38% -- he will still get about 20% of the popular vote, and that might go from 40.40% to 40.20%. I am still predicting that conservative nominees for President will still get 47% or so of the popular vote, and the only state that such a nominee can reasonably win is Utah. The Democrat is going to win a bunch of states with 45% or so of the popular vote because Trump will be getting 43% or less of the popular vote in such states as Kentucky and Tennessee.

There would be more effect if his approval ratings were around 44%. Ask next week when the statewide polls and some national polls are done this coming weekend.
     

They are around 44% here in the United States. Only in Atlasland where junk internet polls (that favor Democrats) are gospel are his approval ratings "in the 30s."

[junior chįmp]

No effect

[SN2903]

Small impact in favor of the GOP. Kavanaugh fired up the conservative base today and hit it out of the park. The democrats will try to do the same thing to future nominees if there are any during Trump's presidency.

[junior chįmp]

Small impact in favor of the GOP. Kavanaugh fired up the conservative base today and hit it out of the park. The democrats will try to do the same thing to future nominees if there are any during Trump's presidency.

Just lol. Seriously...everytime I hear this argument all I can say is you guys have no idea how clueless the average voter is. Having a Conservative SCOTUS only fires up political nerds like the ones that post on this forum...and there aint enough politicsl nerds to tip the scales of an election

[Proto]

Doesn't it intensity existing contradictions polarizing American society?

[junior chįmp]

Doesn't it intensity existing contradictions polarizing American society?

Kavanaugh is just a symptom of the polarization and not a contributor. The Democratic party isnt the one polarizing American political discourse....almost all polarization comes from the GOP. The party keeps growing more derranged and lawless by the day

[Proto]

Doesn't it intensity existing contradictions polarizing American society?

Kavanaugh is just a symptom of the polarization and not a contributor. The Democratic party isnt the one polarizing American political discourse....almost all polarization comes from the GOP. The party keeps growing more derranged and lawless by the day

I can hardly agree. Kavanaugh in his testimony told that he was probed by FBI six times and nothing had been found. And now it was Democrats who excavated Dr. Ford and opend this Kavanaugh case. So who has contributed to the polarization?
I watched Kavanaugh and Ford to find the former more convincing and credible. I disliked Ford very much.

[Beet]

Doesn't it intensity existing contradictions polarizing American society?

Kavanaugh is just a symptom of the polarization and not a contributor. The Democratic party isnt the one polarizing American political discourse....almost all polarization comes from the GOP. The party keeps growing more derranged and lawless by the day

I can hardly agree. Kavanaugh in his testimony told that he was probed by FBI six times and nothing had been found. And now it was Democrats who excavated Dr. Ford and opend this Kavanaugh case. So who has contributed to the polarization?
I watched Kavanaugh and Ford to find the former more convincing and credible. I disliked Ford very much.

I didn't watch Dr. Ford's testimony, but it would have to be pretty horrible if Kavanaugh was more convincing and credible than her.

[TPIG]

Doesn't it intensity existing contradictions polarizing American society?

Kavanaugh is just a symptom of the polarization and not a contributor. The Democratic party isnt the one polarizing American political discourse....almost all polarization comes from the GOP. The party keeps growing more derranged and lawless by the day

Right, and the party willing to use a sexual assault victim as a prop to smear a good man because they can't actually win elections or wield any real power... that party is quite the healing force for America.

[Proto]

Right, and the party willing to use a sexual assault victim as a prop to smear a good man because they can't actually win elections or wield any real power... that party is quite the healing force for America.

I am not sure she is a victim. The woman is false to backbone, I don't believe her at all. The whole story seems to have been fabricated.

[Proto]

Actually there are three options: the whole case is a fraud fabricated by Democratic establishment; Ford is wright and Kavanaugh is a rapist. Kavanaugh is wright and Ford mistook him for some other person. If the first option is true the case may have a serious impact on American political system. Trump should order FBI to start investigation.

[SInNYC]

After watching K's meltdown I thought this was going to lead to a D blowout in 2018 (I was a 'looking good for Ds, but dont count your eggs' person beforehand) and a slight push for Ds in 2020 after voters have had 2 years to forget. But now that there are rumors that some Ds might still vote for him, I think the impact on both 2018 and 2020 is minimal, since it adds fuel to the 'both parties are the same' sentiment by some voters.

[Grassroots]

If anything, watching the case made me more on K's side, and with the republican majority, he's going to win.

There won't be much impact, in a month, as with all things, nobody will care.

[pbrower2a]

The effect will be more upon 2018 than upon 2020 because this will be fresh in early November in 2018 -- not 2020. People will have other concerns in 2020.

We have a President acting much like a dictator, someone who treats elected officials as if they were his employees. 

[RI]

No one will care by 2020.

[Proto]

The effect will be more upon 2018 than upon 2020 because this will be fresh in early November in 2018 -- not 2020. People will have other concerns in 2020.

We have a President acting much like a dictator, someone who treats elected officials as if they were his employees.  

Toute nation a le gouvernement qu’elle mérite.
Trump was elected by Americans and he has some mission to accomplish. Mission given by God. Now it's not so easy to   understand what this mission consists in, but it will be clear later.

[Comrade Funk]

People are really underestimating how historic this is. It's a long way since 1991. If Kavanaugh is confirmed, he will be as hated by Democrats as Trump is. This isn't going away.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems already have the 272 EC college to win with IA, MI, WI and PA, states that will flip back, the damage is done for a Democratic control of Congress.

[IceSpear]

Nobody will remember or care about this in 2 years, except for people that were already locked in to voting for/against Trump regardless.

[MT Treasurer]

Nobody will remember or care about this in 2 years, except for people that were already locked in to voting for/against Trump regardless.

This. Not to mention that Democrats will believe the allegations no matter what, while most Republicans/Trump supporters won’t.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They will remember this. How McConnell obstructed Merrick Garland and got Kennedy to retire. Why wasn't he vetted by Kennedy. Who clerked for him

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Supreme Court always should matter. It should have been the top concern for Democratic voters in 2016 and drove them out to the polls. But it wasn't, and it didn't. So I doubt this will be on the minds of voters in 2020 either, regardless of whether there is a vacancy or not.