2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 130656 times)
IceSpear
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« Reply #1825 on: October 25, 2018, 10:13:09 AM »

LOL at the idiot Republicans who lit so much money on fire here.

Angry at the idiot Democrats who lit so much money on fire here.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1826 on: October 25, 2018, 10:17:48 AM »

I don't think they are up any more. There last buy was just for over the weekend. I think I saw a DCCC ad watching football on Sunday. I'm more okay with more specialized short term buys.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #1827 on: October 25, 2018, 10:24:01 AM »
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I7nNtLRO1sZrwrP-miEdV1XJTE4a2YDx/view?usp=drivesdk

GA-06 Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies Poll (McBath internal): Handel (R-inc) 48%, McBath (D) 47%; Governor (in the district) - Abrams (D) 47%, Kemp (R) 46%
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1828 on: October 25, 2018, 10:27:45 AM »
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on October 25, 2018, 10:24:01 AM
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I7nNtLRO1sZrwrP-miEdV1XJTE4a2YDx/view?usp=drivesdk

GA-06 Thirty-Ninth Street Strategies Poll (McBath internal): Handel (R-inc) 48%, McBath (D) 47%; Governor (in the district) - Abrams (D) 47%, Kemp (R) 46%

There's a reason the big dawgs (NRCC) are doing last-minute spending here. Toss up race.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1829 on: October 25, 2018, 10:29:05 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 25, 2018, 10:17:48 AM

I don't think they are up any more. There last buy was just for over the weekend. I think I saw a DCCC ad watching football on Sunday. I'm more okay with more specialized short term buys.

That's great that they aren't up any more, but they shouldn't have been up to begin with. If even a penny was needed to lock down this seat, Dems would have way more problems to worry about. Like finding a way to get their House gains beyond the single digits and preventing a filibuster proof GOP majority in the Senate.
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Florida Man for Crime
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« Reply #1830 on: October 25, 2018, 10:43:30 AM »
NJ-02 (Stockton)

Van Drew 50.1
Grossman 34.7

https://stockton.edu/hughes-center/polling/documents/2018-1025-cd2-poll-2-screened-wfs.pdf

Pretty nice lead coming from the pollster who had Menendez only +2
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1831 on: October 25, 2018, 10:44:46 AM »

And nobody was surprised.
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Florida Man for Crime
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« Reply #1832 on: October 25, 2018, 11:10:15 AM »
https://www.lsu.edu/manship/files/cook_manship_report_final.pdf

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Gass3268
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« Reply #1833 on: October 25, 2018, 11:15:33 AM »
« Edited: October 25, 2018, 11:20:20 AM by Gass3268 »

Not a big fan of polls like these, but these number are nuts.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1834 on: October 25, 2018, 01:21:05 PM »

Different from other polls like this, it was done by Cook. Which means we have a good idea of where those 72 districts are, in contrast to private polls which just say "close seats" and leave it at that.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1835 on: October 25, 2018, 01:23:34 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on October 25, 2018, 01:21:05 PM

Different from other polls like this, it was done by Cook. Which means we have a good idea of where those 72 districts are, in contrast to private polls which just say "close seats" and leave it at that.

Did someone calculate what the GOP margin was in 2016 in those seats?
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #1836 on: October 25, 2018, 02:02:59 PM »

Faux moderates like Comstock are the absolute worst.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1837 on: October 25, 2018, 02:13:13 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 25, 2018, 01:23:34 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on October 25, 2018, 01:21:05 PM

Different from other polls like this, it was done by Cook. Which means we have a good idea of where those 72 districts are, in contrast to private polls which just say "close seats" and leave it at that.

Did someone calculate what the GOP margin was in 2016 in those seats?

Give me a few hours, I can look into this after work.
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Florida Man for Crime
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« Reply #1838 on: October 25, 2018, 02:56:29 PM »
McLaughlin GCB -

46 D
44 R

Amusingly, 538 adjusts this all the way to D+7, so it is about in line with the average given that it is from McLaughlin

http://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/MA-National-Monthly-Omnibus-October-2018.pdf
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1839 on: October 25, 2018, 02:59:49 PM »
Quote from: INCUMBENT Cruz Will Probably Win 👁 on October 25, 2018, 02:56:29 PM
McLaughlin GCB -

46 D
44 R

Amusingly, 538 adjusts this all the way to D+7, so it is about in line with the average given that it is from McLaughlin

http://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/MA-National-Monthly-Omnibus-October-2018.pdf

If even McLaughlin can't find a Republican lead in the GCB, they're done.
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Person Man
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« Reply #1840 on: October 25, 2018, 03:05:44 PM »
Quote from: Fremont Speaker ON Progressive on October 25, 2018, 02:59:49 PM
Quote from: INCUMBENT Cruz Will Probably Win 👁 on October 25, 2018, 02:56:29 PM
McLaughlin GCB -

46 D
44 R

Amusingly, 538 adjusts this all the way to D+7, so it is about in line with the average given that it is from McLaughlin

http://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/MA-National-Monthly-Omnibus-October-2018.pdf

If even McLaughlin can't find a Republican lead in the GCB, they're done.

I've looked at it and they have been from R+3 to D+6 with most of the time showing anything from D+1 to D+3.
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Florida Man for Crime
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« Reply #1841 on: October 25, 2018, 03:06:20 PM »
Quote from: Fremont Speaker ON Progressive on October 25, 2018, 02:59:49 PM
If even McLaughlin can't find a Republican lead in the GCB, they're done.

Depends on what you mean by "done." There is basically no way they will win the popular vote, but that doesn't mean they can't (in theory) maintain control of the House with yet another minority vote.
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Xing
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« Reply #1842 on: October 25, 2018, 03:08:08 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 25, 2018, 09:47:59 AM





Please, Atlas and 538, keep telling me how this race is Lean R, but AZ/MO/IN are Lean D.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1843 on: October 25, 2018, 03:48:58 PM »
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Person Man
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« Reply #1844 on: October 25, 2018, 04:00:03 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 25, 2018, 03:48:58 PM


Nother tie?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1845 on: October 25, 2018, 04:01:41 PM »
Quote from: Come on! on October 25, 2018, 04:00:03 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 25, 2018, 03:48:58 PM


Nother tie?

Same poll, this is just the result they got for the congressional question.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1846 on: October 25, 2018, 04:30:20 PM »
Not to sound panicky again, but the 538 GCB average has been falling sharply in the past couple days. Even if it doesn't fall further, winning by 8 and winning by 8.5 are not equivalent.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1847 on: October 25, 2018, 04:32:02 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 25, 2018, 03:48:58 PM


That's actually pretty good news for Sutton, since it shows it's not just a favorable sample for Dems in general.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1848 on: October 25, 2018, 04:33:09 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 25, 2018, 04:30:20 PM
Not to sound panicky again, but the 538 GCB average has been falling sharply in the past couple days. Even if it doesn't fall further, winning by 8 and winning by 8.5 are not equivalent.

Come on dude...that's negligible movement. If it falls to 6 or below I might endorse your panic. Tongue
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1849 on: October 25, 2018, 04:33:23 PM »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 25, 2018, 04:30:20 PM
Not to sound panicky again, but the 538 GCB average has been falling sharply in the past couple days. Even if it doesn't fall further, winning by 8 and winning by 8.5 are not equivalent.

Do you know about data points and how statistics work or are you just looking for reasons to make panic posts?
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