2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[YE]

Emerson polling lol

http://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/2/1/7/217c0300d1cde9c2/Emerson_College_Polling_Weekly_Episode_74.mp3?c_id=24009809&cs_id=24009809&expiration=1539609387&hwt=51b426f88471752024aab5be68f67054

NH-1: Pappas (D) 40, Edwards (R) 35

NH-2: Kuster (D-inc) 44, Negron (R) 25

NV-1: Titus (D-inc) 50, Bentley (R) 20

NV-2: Amodei (R-inc), 23 Koble (D) 16

NV-3: Lee (D) 41, Tarkanian (R) 39

NV-4: Horsford (D) 36 Hardy (R) 34

This is the junkiest of junk polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson polling lol

http://hwcdn.libsyn.com/p/2/1/7/217c0300d1cde9c2/Emerson_College_Polling_Weekly_Episode_74.mp3?c_id=24009809&cs_id=24009809&expiration=1539609387&hwt=51b426f88471752024aab5be68f67054

NH-1: Pappas (D) 40, Edwards (R) 35

NH-2: Kuster (D-inc) 44, Negron (R) 25

NV-1: Titus (D-inc) 50, Bentley (R) 20

NV-2: Amodei (R-inc), 23 Koble (D) 16

NV-3: Lee (D) 41, Tarkanian (R) 39

NV-4: Horsford (D) 36 Hardy (R) 34

23-16??

[henster]

http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/taylor-leads-luria-by-7pts-in-va-cd-2-preserves-lead-among-most-committed-voters/

VA-2 CNU Wason: Taylor (R-inc) 50, Luria (D) 43

The result isn’t ridiculous, but them having Kaine only up 47-42 in this seat is.

Yeah, I mean I'm not surprised if Taylor is winning but there's no way Kaine is only up +5... Northam even won by 4 and Stewart is an abomination

Kaine has treated Stewart with kid gloves, with all the material he has on him he’s running ads on him being opposed to the omnibus. No surprise he’s performing essentially like a generic R if that’s how Kine is treating him.

[2016]

CNU had Jennifer Wexton up 10 over Comstock a week ago...and now they have Taylor up 7 over Luria. Not everything is rosy in the House for the Dems.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

CNU had Jennifer Wexton up 10 over Comstock a week ago...and now they have Taylor up 7 over Luria. Not everything is rosy in the House for the Dems.

And exactly how does the poll in VA-10 from a week ago relate to VA-02?

[Brittain33]

CNU had Jennifer Wexton up 10 over Comstock a week ago...and now they have Taylor up 7 over Luria. Not everything is rosy in the House for the Dems.

VA-2, like TX-23, seems like it's going to stay Republican. VA-10 and VA-2 are very different districts; VA-2 has a low rate of college education for Virginia, while VA-10 is off the charts.

[Nyvin]

CNU had Jennifer Wexton up 10 over Comstock a week ago...and now they have Taylor up 7 over Luria. Not everything is rosy in the House for the Dems.

Can we start applying this #analysis to other elections around the country?

[Xing]

Don't be so hard on User Named After A Terrible Year, guys. As our Lord and Savior Donald Trump taught us, "love thy poorly educated neighbors."

[bilaps]

Stockton college 3-10 Oct has Macarthur up 1 on Kim. B+ 538

[BudgieForce]

Stockton college 3-10 Oct has Macarthur up 1 on Kim. B+ 538

Stockton has been really off this cycle. Most notably their Menendez +2 poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pew Research American Trends Panel: Sep. 24 - Oct. 7, 8904 RV (change from Jul/Aug)

D: 47 (+1)
R: 38 (-1)

An interesting question -- which party do you expect to control Congress after this election:

House: R 51, D 46
Senate: R 57, D 40

[Xing]

An interesting question -- which party do you expect to control Congress after this election:

House: R 51, D 46
Senate: R 57, D 40

It is definitely to the Democrats' advantage for people to think that Republicans are going to retain control of the House.

[Strudelcutie4427]

NH-1: Papas 40 Edwards 35. Both have a lot of room to grow
NH-2: Kuster 44 Negron 25. It’ll tighten but kuster will win

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

McAdams has now drawn even with Love in UT-04, 46-46%

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/10/15/poll-th-district-race-is/

[Xing]

McAdams has now drawn even with Love in UT-04, 46-46%

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/10/15/poll-th-district-race-is/

Dang, and that's not an internal. Looks like we could have a real race on our hands.

[Gass3268]

NH-1: Papas 40 Edwards 35. Both have a lot of room to grow
NH-2: Kuster 44 Negron 25. It’ll tighten but kuster will win

Two Safe D seats.

[Gass3268]

McAdams has now drawn even with Love in UT-04, 46-46%

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/10/15/poll-th-district-race-is/

Dang, and that's not an internal. Looks like we could have a real race on our hands.

Mia Love is a classic underperformer.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

McAdams has now drawn even with Love in UT-04, 46-46%

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/10/15/poll-th-district-race-is/

Now, this is news to be excited about.

[Zaybay]

McAdams has now drawn even with Love in UT-04, 46-46%

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/10/15/poll-th-district-race-is/

Dang, and that's not an internal. Looks like we could have a real race on our hands.

perhaps we wont have to wait for the commission to take effect to win a seat in UT.

[Brittain33]

Seat flips back to a different Republican in 2020, though.

[ON Progressive]

McAdams has now drawn even with Love in UT-04, 46-46%

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/10/15/poll-th-district-race-is/

Solid told me this seat is Safe R though.

[Gass3268]

Seat flips back to a different Republican in 2020, though.

Maybe, but Trump on the ballot instead of Romney seems like a better environment for McAdams.

[Beet]

McAdams has now drawn even with Love in UT-04, 46-46%

https://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2018/10/15/poll-th-district-race-is/

Solid told me this seat is Safe R though.

LOL. The one unexpectedly good House poll for Dems lately and it's against the black woman Republican. Truly the worst of all possible timelines.

[Virginiá]

Seat flips back to a different Republican in 2020, though.

Maybe, but Trump on the ballot instead of Romney seems like a better environment for McAdams.

Yea I'm not sure how it would be worse in 2020 this time around. Trump only won UT-04 39% - 33%. That is a massive drop from 2012, where Romney carried it 67% - 30% while Matheson just barely lost the seat. And it's not like this election will see a dramatically bluer electorate in UT-04. It's probably not that much different. Even if the vote isn't split again in 2020, it's still likely Trump will under-perform there.

2020 should be a lot easier on McAdams than 2012 was for Matheson.

[Gass3268]

Seat flips back to a different Republican in 2020, though.

Maybe, but Trump on the ballot instead of Romney seems like a better environment for McAdams.

Yea I'm not sure how it would be worse in 2020 this time around. Trump only won UT-04 39% - 33%. That is a massive drop from 2012, where Romney carried it 67% - 30% while Matheson just barely lost the seat. And it's not like this election will see a dramatically bluer electorate in UT-04. It's probably not that much different. Even if the vote isn't split again in 2020, it's still likely Trump will under-perform there.

2020 should be a lot easier on McAdams than 2012 was for Matheson.

Then after 2020, if the commission passes, he should get an SLC centric district.