2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 130587 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1025 on: October 08, 2018, 07:32:13 PM »

Manning and McReady win with these numbers.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #1026 on: October 08, 2018, 07:33:30 PM »
If you doubled Hillary's 2016 PV margin from 2 to 4, she would have won a majority of congressional seats. The suburban curbstompin is radically changing the map. Look at NJ.
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Bandit3 the Worker
Populist3
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« Reply #1027 on: October 08, 2018, 07:34:31 PM »

Butbutbutbut a person on the Internet told me the blue wave was becoming a red tsunami, and even put it in the Internet.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #1028 on: October 08, 2018, 07:39:44 PM »
With NC being R+3 in PVI, this translates to a national margin being D+8.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1029 on: October 08, 2018, 07:54:33 PM »

Right around where the average has been for a whole year or so

(Presuming a uniform swing, of course)
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
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« Reply #1030 on: October 08, 2018, 08:25:56 PM »

Actually, it would be D+11 since PVI of R+3 means that a nationally tied election would give the area a 53-47 R win.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #1031 on: October 08, 2018, 08:31:58 PM »

The question I'm interested in is what figure does Coleman need?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1032 on: October 08, 2018, 09:28:45 PM »
Quote from: Stranger in a strange land on October 08, 2018, 12:37:06 PM
This will not be the main story by election day; the news cycle moves too fast now. Consider that:
- The Manafort and Cohen verdict/plea happened a little over a month ago, were huge news, and who's talking about them now?
At this point in the 2016 cycle, the Entertainment Tonight Tape had just dropped, and people were talking about Hillary winning Texas and Georgia and Dems winning 8-10 seats in the Senate and possibly even winning the House

Delusional people, yes.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1033 on: October 08, 2018, 09:33:51 PM »
If democrats do worse than expected on election night, I could see Cam Cavasso putting up a fight, ofc he'd still lose, but I think he could have a decent chance of not having the race called the minute the polls close.
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junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
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« Reply #1034 on: October 08, 2018, 10:50:00 PM »
Quote from: Stranger in a strange land on October 08, 2018, 12:37:06 PM
This will not be the main story by election day; the news cycle moves too fast now. Consider that:
- The Manafort and Cohen verdict/plea happened a little over a month ago, were huge news, and who's talking about them now?
- At this point in the 2016 cycle, the Entertainment Tonight Tape had just dropped, and people were talking about Hillary winning Texas and Georgia and Dems winning 8-10 seats in the Senate and possibly even winning the House

You really have to hand it to Atlas....despite the spectacular special election results (with dems winning seats not won in decades), record setting fundraising and volunteering, running record amounts of candidates (including the most state legislature candidates since 1982), Trump's approval in the toilet....Atlas thinks that all that momentum will evaporate over this Kavanaugh nonsense. Literally nobody cares except political nerds and the MSM (which of course is looking for its bogus story of the week).
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #1035 on: October 09, 2018, 03:06:58 AM »
PA-10 (PPP)

Scott Perry (R) 44
George Scott (D) 43

https://www.scribd.com/document/390025957/New-Public-Policy-Poll-in-PA10#fullscreen&from_embed
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #1036 on: October 09, 2018, 06:28:23 AM »
VA-10 WP/Schar School: Wexton 55, Comstock 43

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democrat-wexton-leads-rep-comstock-by-12-points-in-northern-va-district-survey-finds/2018/10/08/9b4a42e2-c829-11e8-b2b5-79270f9cce17_story.html
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1037 on: October 09, 2018, 06:33:40 AM »

Comstock handled the Kavanaugh confirmation about as bad as she could.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1038 on: October 09, 2018, 06:34:58 AM »

Both parties are idiotic for spending a single cent here. Comstock would lose even in a blue ripple.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #1039 on: October 09, 2018, 06:37:12 AM »

Blanched Comstocked
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Beet
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« Reply #1040 on: October 09, 2018, 06:40:47 AM »
If this was a NY Times / Upshot poll it would probably be something like Wexton 47 Comstock 45

Nate Cohn on twitter: "We are adjusting our model bc no way is Comstock getting 86% among Asians"
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Politician
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« Reply #1041 on: October 09, 2018, 06:44:34 AM »
But UncleSam told me Comstock has a good chance
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Vega
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« Reply #1042 on: October 09, 2018, 07:00:24 AM »
Quote from: Mondale on October 08, 2018, 10:50:00 PM
Quote from: Stranger in a strange land on October 08, 2018, 12:37:06 PM
This will not be the main story by election day; the news cycle moves too fast now. Consider that:
- The Manafort and Cohen verdict/plea happened a little over a month ago, were huge news, and who's talking about them now?
- At this point in the 2016 cycle, the Entertainment Tonight Tape had just dropped, and people were talking about Hillary winning Texas and Georgia and Dems winning 8-10 seats in the Senate and possibly even winning the House

You really have to hand it to Atlas....despite the spectacular special election results (with dems winning seats not won in decades), record setting fundraising and volunteering, running record amounts of candidates (including the most state legislature candidates since 1982), Trump's approval in the toilet....Atlas thinks that all that momentum will evaporate over this Kavanaugh nonsense. Literally nobody cares except political nerds and the MSM (which of course is looking for its bogus story of the week).

I think it's less about Democratic turnout evaporating than it is Republican turnout surging and cancelling out a lot of that momentum.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1043 on: October 09, 2018, 07:29:15 AM »

Why did she even have to handle it? That should not even be a house matter.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1044 on: October 09, 2018, 07:37:00 AM »

Her opposition research is vaunted.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1045 on: October 09, 2018, 07:38:18 AM »

It looks like the undecideds are split evenly between Clinton and Trump voters.
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Person Man
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« Reply #1046 on: October 09, 2018, 08:06:43 AM »

Is this one we need?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1047 on: October 09, 2018, 08:08:57 AM »

Nah. The pundits all have it at lean R, which sounds about right to me. It used to be a massively underrated oppotunity though with lots of likely/safe R ratings.
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Person Man
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« Reply #1048 on: October 09, 2018, 08:20:44 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on October 09, 2018, 08:08:57 AM

Nah. The pundits all have it at lean R, which sounds about right to me. It used to be a massively underrated oppotunity though with lots of likely/safe R ratings.

That would seal it if we can pull through this soft patch.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #1049 on: October 09, 2018, 10:11:04 AM »
Ohio (Baldwin Wallace University):

Democrats 43
Republicans 40

Virtually identical to their September poll

https://www.bw.edu/Assets/stories/2018/2018-Fall/cri-october_survey_report-final.pdf
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