2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[junior chįmp]

CAGOP is basically finished after 2018

[Strong Candidate]

If you want too see something completely hilarious:

NH-01
OnMessage for Eddie Edwards (R)
400 Likely Voters

Eddie Edwards (R) 42
Chris Pappas (D) 40

GCB
Republicans 54
Democrats44
(seriously, I mean come on!)

MOE +/- 4.9%

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-internal-republican-poll-shows-edwards-well-positioned-against-democrat-pappas/23586589

[BudgieForce]

1. North Dakota: North Dakota is the retail politics capital of this Senate cycle, it's easy to campaign in, and polls have always sucked in North Dakota. With a month to go I'm worried, but come on.

2. Kavanaugh will be confirmed, probably with 1 or 2 Democrats, and on November 6th nobody, especially not the generally demoralized Republican base will care.

I'm an optimist, so maybe on November 7th I'll want to shoot myself for writing this, but this sure seems like another round of Atlas/Beltway Mania about how the Democrats are doomed and how THIS is why the Democrats will lose a billion gajillion seats in November.

The Democrats can do NOTHING if they don't take the Senate and Republicans with Kavernaugh being confirmed will do everything in their Power to prevent that from happening.

I dont think you have a grasp on how our government works. While it would be nice to be able to stop Trump's nominees, the house is not some powerless body.

[Person Man]

If you want too see something completely hilarious:

NH-01
OnMessage for Eddie Edwards (R)
400 Likely Voters

Eddie Edwards (R) 42
Chris Pappas (D) 40

GCB
Democrats 54
Republicans 44
(seriously, I mean come on!)

MOE +/- 4.9%

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-internal-republican-poll-shows-edwards-well-positioned-against-democrat-pappas/23586589

This was definitely an internal.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

First, it seems like even those people suddenly proclaiming absolutely doom for the Democrats in November are conveniently just focusing on the Senate and ignoring the House and Governorships.  

So much is made of a few polls where Heitkamp is behind, and I would acknowledge there seems to be some movement there.  But that's one race in one tiny, unrepresentative state!

The same posts ignore 10+ House GOP incumbents that now appear to be behind in the polls by 8-12 points.  Or the fact that Andrew Gillum has led every poll of the biggest governor's race in the country since he won the primary.  Or the fact that Democrats are running away in Governors' races that were previous thought toss-ups like MI, CO, CT, and MN.  And does anyone think the Kavanaugh hearings are going to help Republicans defend their eight close congressional races in California??

North Dakota is not representative of the US.  Across the true scope of the nation, Democrats are still dominating.

[Hindsight was 2020]

First, it seems like even those people suddenly proclaiming absolutely doom for the Democrats in November are conveniently just focusing on the Senate and ignoring the House and Governorships.  

So much is made of a few polls where Heitkamp is behind, and I would acknowledge there seems to be some movement there.  But that's one race in one tiny, unrepresentative state!

The same posts ignore 10+ House GOP incumbents that now appear to be behind in the polls by 8-12 points.  Or the fact that Andrew Gillum has led every poll of the biggest governor's race in the country since he won the primary.  Or the fact that Democrats are running away in Governors' races that were previous thought toss-ups like MI, CO, CT, and MN.  And does anyone think the Kavanaugh hearings are going to help Republicans defend their eight close congressional races in California??

North Dakota is not representative of the US.  Across the true scope of the nation, Democrats are still dominating.

THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ON Progressive]

If you want too see something completely hilarious:

NH-01
OnMessage for Eddie Edwards (R)
400 Likely Voters

Eddie Edwards (R) 42
Chris Pappas (D) 40

GCB
Democrats 54
Republicans 44
(seriously, I mean come on!)

MOE +/- 4.9%

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-internal-republican-poll-shows-edwards-well-positioned-against-democrat-pappas/23586589

I think you meant R+10 in this poll’s GCB, which is hilarious as hell. NH-01 being nearly 20 points to the right of the nation is laughable.

[Xing]

B-b-b-but I thought Cisneros was finished!!! Anyway, good numbers for Democrats overall, and Walters is really looking like she could be joining the Coffman/Comstock/Blum/Paulsen/Lewis/Rothfus/Yoder club.

[Zaybay]

First, it seems like even those people suddenly proclaiming absolutely doom for the Democrats in November are conveniently just focusing on the Senate and ignoring the House and Governorships.  

So much is made of a few polls where Heitkamp is behind, and I would acknowledge there seems to be some movement there.  But that's one race in one tiny, unrepresentative state!

The same posts ignore 10+ House GOP incumbents that now appear to be behind in the polls by 8-12 points.  Or the fact that Andrew Gillum has led every poll of the biggest governor's race in the country since he won the primary.  Or the fact that Democrats are running away in Governors' races that were previous thought toss-ups like MI, CO, CT, and MN.  And does anyone think the Kavanaugh hearings are going to help Republicans defend their eight close congressional races in California??

North Dakota is not representative of the US.  Across the true scope of the nation, Democrats are still dominating.

FF post right here

[Ebsy]

If you read some of the stuff Walters said earlier this year (a certain Politico profile comes to mind) it didn't really seem like she was taking this election seriously, even given that the GOP was in full freak out mode in the OC. She came across as extremely arrogant and convinced that the partisan lean of her seat was too great to overcome for the Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

If you want too see something completely hilarious:

NH-01
OnMessage for Eddie Edwards (R)
400 Likely Voters

Eddie Edwards (R) 42
Chris Pappas (D) 40

Thanks, I needed a good laugh today.

[Strong Candidate]

If you want too see something completely hilarious:

NH-01
OnMessage for Eddie Edwards (R)
400 Likely Voters

Eddie Edwards (R) 42
Chris Pappas (D) 40

GCB
Democrats 54
Republicans 44
(seriously, I mean come on!)

MOE +/- 4.9%

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-internal-republican-poll-shows-edwards-well-positioned-against-democrat-pappas/23586589

I think you meant R+10 in this poll’s GCB, which is hilarious as hell. NH-01 being nearly 20 points to the right of the nation is laughable.

Yeah, sorry. I think my brain just auto-corrected the numbers because they were so absurd.

[ON Progressive]

If you want too see something completely hilarious:

NH-01
OnMessage for Eddie Edwards (R)
400 Likely Voters

Eddie Edwards (R) 42
Chris Pappas (D) 40

GCB
Democrats 54
Republicans 44
(seriously, I mean come on!)

MOE +/- 4.9%

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-primary-source-internal-republican-poll-shows-edwards-well-positioned-against-democrat-pappas/23586589

I think you meant R+10 in this poll’s GCB, which is hilarious as hell. NH-01 being nearly 20 points to the right of the nation is laughable.

Yeah, sorry. I think my brain just auto-corrected the numbers because they were so absurd.

I can’t blame you for that LOL.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

To be honest, I find the potential consequences towards the future of the Senate not flipping in 2018 to be extremely horrifying, regardless of how well Democrats do overall. To me, Republicans holding the Senate automatically means that it was a disastrous year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

To be honest, I find the potential consequences towards the future of the Senate not flipping in 2018 to be extremely horrifying, regardless of how well Democrats do overall. To me, Republicans holding the Senate automatically means that it was a disastrous year.

Your expectations were too high.  It's always been a long shot for the Democrats to take the Senate this year.  The fact that they're even in the game (and they do still have a reasonable shot; it's still no more unlikely than Trump's victory was at this point in 2016) is utterly amazing.  If Clinton had won the Presidential election, we'd be looking at something in the neighborhood of 60 R Senators in January.

[Yank2133]

1. North Dakota: North Dakota is the retail politics capital of this Senate cycle, it's easy to campaign in, and polls have always sucked in North Dakota. With a month to go I'm worried, but come on.

2. Kavanaugh will be confirmed, probably with 1 or 2 Democrats, and on November 6th nobody, especially not the generally demoralized Republican base will care.

I'm an optimist, so maybe on November 7th I'll want to shoot myself for writing this, but this sure seems like another round of Atlas/Beltway Mania about how the Democrats are doomed and how THIS is why the Democrats will lose a billion gajillion seats in November.

The Democrats can do NOTHING if they don't take the Senate and Republicans with Kavernaugh being confirmed will do everything in their Power to prevent that from happening.

I dont think you have a grasp on how are government works. While it would be nice to be able to stop Trump's nominees, the house is not some powerless body.

Seriously.

The house can still send out subpoenas and run oversight.

[Tender Branson]

I wouldn't interpret all too much into some "tightening" Senate polls and then projecting that the Democrats will crash and burn.

All the signs are still very, very favourable for them and the approval (which seems likely) of Kavanaugh by the Senate will turn even more Democrats and -leaning Independents out.

Might not be enough to take the Senate (which was always a longshot), but the House should be safe.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1047895543639420928

[junior chįmp]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1047895543639420928

Lol at the insistence that attack ads ( or ads in general) matter

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Expectations were too high, Dems flipping 10-12 gubernatorial mansions and +2 or 3 in the Senate and winning +30 in the House is a +12 generic ballot lead.

Winning generic ballot by 6 was much more reasonable

[Virginiá]

Lol at the insistence that attack ads ( or ads in general) matter

The feeding frenzy after Nov 6th about what campaign tactics/attack ads made the difference is going to be funny.

"I was leaning towards Rosen, but then I saw this ad that said she was a scary socialist who wanted to nationalize Pepsi production, and I just couldn't vote for her. I like my Pepsi, and no one will take that from me."

[Virginiá]

[MillennialModerate]

First, it seems like even those people suddenly proclaiming absolutely doom for the Democrats in November are conveniently just focusing on the Senate and ignoring the House and Governorships.  

So much is made of a few polls where Heitkamp is behind, and I would acknowledge there seems to be some movement there.  But that's one race in one tiny, unrepresentative state!

The same posts ignore 10+ House GOP incumbents that now appear to be behind in the polls by 8-12 points.  Or the fact that Andrew Gillum has led every poll of the biggest governor's race in the country since he won the primary.  Or the fact that Democrats are running away in Governors' races that were previous thought toss-ups like MI, CO, CT, and MN.  And does anyone think the Kavanaugh hearings are going to help Republicans defend their eight close congressional races in California??

North Dakota is not representative of the US.  Across the true scope of the nation, Democrats are still dominating.

I’m not ignoring the House and Governorships. But let’s be honest, even if they take over the house it’ll be by a 10 seat majority of something like that. Nothing major. Still good but nothing like what we had back before 2010.

And the Governorships are nice but can we win enough of them to undo the rigged gerrymandering?  Doubt if.

[bilaps]

Just a week or two - Chances of a Democratic senate we’re becoming very reasonable. The generic ballot had Dems up 12. Trump was embarrassing himself yet again. People were talking about the Dems breaking through the gerrymander wall and not just taking back the house but winning 40+

Now a week or two later, the Trumptard base of the GOP is up in arms because they want a partisan psychotic hack on the court and suddenly ... Bredesen is slipping, Heitkamp is a lost cause, Donnelly is way too close for comfort, McKaskill could go either way.

The implications could be horrific for the rule of law and reasonable common sense.

Because if the numbers hold the GOP will have a commanding majority in the senate in the sense that the Dems will not be able to take back control until 2026 if were being reasonable (2020 is a Presidential year and with Trump on the ballot there will be an historically low number of ticket splitting. Meaning hardly any pick ups. 2022 there will be a chance for a couple pick ups but not enough to knock down a 4-5-6 seat majority. Then 2024 is a Presidential year but it’ll be time for re-election of this class of Senators which is a overwhelmingly Republican favored class.

With Ginsburg surely retiring or god forbid passing (she’s up there in age) then you’re looking at 6-3 conservative majority - not just that but with at least 2 of those judges highly partisan.

I’ve always advocated for a split court. Four conservatives. Four liberals and 1 Centerist. Which is what we HAD until, well until when booze bag gets confirmed.

Senate will stay republican and house is going democratic, but as too Supreme Court, well "booze bag" isn't one to blame.. You should look somewhere around NY to wherever Hillary is hiding. Democratic establishment did this..

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just a week or two - Chances of a Democratic senate we’re becoming very reasonable. The generic ballot had Dems up 12. Trump was embarrassing himself yet again. People were talking about the Dems breaking through the gerrymander wall and not just taking back the house but winning 40+

Now a week or two later, the Trumptard base of the GOP is up in arms because they want a partisan psychotic hack on the court and suddenly ... Bredesen is slipping, Heitkamp is a lost cause, Donnelly is way too close for comfort, McKaskill could go either way.

The implications could be horrific for the rule of law and reasonable common sense.

Because if the numbers hold the GOP will have a commanding majority in the senate in the sense that the Dems will not be able to take back control until 2026 if were being reasonable (2020 is a Presidential year and with Trump on the ballot there will be an historically low number of ticket splitting. Meaning hardly any pick ups. 2022 there will be a chance for a couple pick ups but not enough to knock down a 4-5-6 seat majority. Then 2024 is a Presidential year but it’ll be time for re-election of this class of Senators which is a overwhelmingly Republican favored class.

With Ginsburg surely retiring or god forbid passing (she’s up there in age) then you’re looking at 6-3 conservative majority - not just that but with at least 2 of those judges highly partisan.

I’ve always advocated for a split court. Four conservatives. Four liberals and 1 Centerist. Which is what we HAD until, well until when booze bag gets confirmed.

I remember Bagel, myself and others were calling in July, that this would happen and Solid and a few others said we were wrong and made funnies about banning us.