2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[MillennialModerate]

Just a week or two - Chances of a Democratic senate we’re becoming very reasonable. The generic ballot had Dems up 12. Trump was embarrassing himself yet again. People were talking about the Dems breaking through the gerrymander wall and not just taking back the house but winning 40+

Now a week or two later, the Trumptard base of the GOP is up in arms because they want a partisan psychotic hack on the court and suddenly ... Bredesen is slipping, Heitkamp is a lost cause, Donnelly is way too close for comfort, McKaskill could go either way.

The implications could be horrific for the rule of law and reasonable common sense.

Because if the numbers hold the GOP will have a commanding majority in the senate in the sense that the Dems will not be able to take back control until 2026 if were being reasonable (2020 is a Presidential year and with Trump on the ballot there will be an historically low number of ticket splitting. Meaning hardly any pick ups. 2022 there will be a chance for a couple pick ups but not enough to knock down a 4-5-6 seat majority. Then 2024 is a Presidential year but it’ll be time for re-election of this class of Senators which is a overwhelmingly Republican favored class.

With Ginsburg surely retiring or god forbid passing (she’s up there in age) then you’re looking at 6-3 conservative majority - not just that but with at least 2 of those judges highly partisan.

I’ve always advocated for a split court. Four conservatives. Four liberals and 1 Centerist. Which is what we HAD until, well until when booze bag gets confirmed.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1047834597382377472

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Polls literally haven't changed. Why are people inventing polls out of thin air?


Heitkamp was always going to have a really rough time in a state Trump won by 36 and Cramer won by 50. The fundamentals (not 538 trash fundamentals) were terrible for Heitkamp. Also, she was trailing in every poll anyways.

Bredesen always had a tough time

Mccaskill has been near tied for months now, same w/ Donnelly


Y'all need to stop inventing "GCB D+12 polls" (where? the average has been D+8 for... months now). The environment has been D+8 for months which will end up being around a 30-40 house seat gain

[ElectionsGuy]

This could be a blip in the radar and Democrats return to commanding numbers in a couple weeks, like after the first debate in 2012. At the very worst, this will be a democratic-favored environment. At best, a landslide. So there shouldn't be too much to complain about as a Democrat.

Because if the numbers hold the GOP will have a commanding majority in the senate in the sense that the Dems will not be able to take back control until 2026 if were being reasonable (2020 is a Presidential year and with Trump on the ballot there will be an historically low number of ticket splitting. Meaning hardly any pick ups. 2022 there will be a chance for a couple pick ups but not enough to knock down a 4-5-6 seat majority. Then 2024 is a Presidential year but it’ll be time for re-election of this class of Senators which is a overwhelmingly Republican favored class.

2020 will be kinda tough for Democrats, but 3-4 pickups are possible in best case scenario. But if Trump gets re-elected in 2020, Democrats are probably looking at their best opportunity in a long time to pick up seats in 2022. AZ, FL, GA, NC, OH, PA, WI all possible opportunities, especially if any of those incumbents retire. If a Democrat defeats Trump in 2020, well it won't be as good. But the point is, it's not as bad as you make it out to be. Republicans, on paper, should have an advnatage in controlling the Senate due to smaller states being disproportionately Republican. Democrats could actually control the house for the next decade or so, the opposite of the past 8 years.

[bilaps]

Out of 5 Cali races that are ranked tossups, with these results 4-1 dems seems legit. One out of 39 or 48 should be Republican.

[Zaybay]

Republicans(2016):"Just a week or two - Chances of holding the Republican senate we’re becoming very reasonable. The generic ballot had tied. Clinton was embarrassing herself yet again. People were talking about the Reps breaking the blue wall and even taking back the presidency.

Now a week or two later, the Libtard base of the DEMs is up in arms because of Trump saying Mexicans are bad and suddenly ... Blunt is slipping, Johnson is a lost cause, Toomey is way too close for comfort, Tillis could go either way."


I dont mean to come off as rude in anyway, but my point is that things can change, and not everything is set in stone. This is October, where there will be many surprises and shifts in both the GCB and in polling. We shouldnt be declaring that a wave is dead or that the Tsunami is here until the actual election.

[KingSweden]

Those are good numbers for the Ds in Cali, frankly better than I expected. It’ll probably help that the gas tax repeal has basically given up, so R turnout may be further depressed

[Politician]

A temporary blip is not a permanent development. There is still a month left. Plenty of developments left to affect this midterm course.

Don't forget that in October 2016, most of Atlas was convinced Hillary would be winning Arizona and Ohio.

[SnowLabrador]

I agree with this. Trump's turning the wave into a ripple by firing up the base with the fascist rallies.

[Person Man]

A temporary blip is not a permanent development. There is still a month left. Plenty of developments left to affect this midterm course.

Don't forget that in October 2016, most of Atlas was convinced Hillary would be winning Arizona and Ohio.

I never thought she would win Ohio.

[ON Progressive]

I agree with this. Trump's turning the wave into a ripple by firing up the base with the fascist rallies.

Senator Roy Moore and Congressman Rick Saccone agree that Trump rallies win elections for Republicans.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Democrats were never up 12 in any GCB averages.

[socaldem]

I'm not as pessimistic as the OP.

But the Kavanaugh battle is giving me premonitions of the "Access Hollywood" tape--something that should have been damaging and disqualifying for the Republicans but somehow through Repubican populist alchemy, playing off of rural America's general distaste for cultural liberalism, "SJW" Democrats and criticisms of the vaunted patriarchy, turned the election into a culture war that drowned out the many, many reasons that Trump should not have been elected.

Now I see the same lines in the sand being drawn around Kavanaugh and while Democrats have a majority of Americans on their side, the voters in critical red states where we need senate seats are only thinking about Kavanaugh now and not the tax boondoggle, preexisting conditions, the foolish tariffs, the latest misadventures of Trump political appointees, or any of the many many other reasons we need a congressional check on the maniac in the White House.

No wonder Lindsey and the right-wing noise machine are so gleeful in hammering Kavanaugh talking points. And in this debate, we're still paying the price for Bill Clinton's sins. The line of argument is very eye-for-an-eye but in Democrats' unflinching defenses of Bill Clinton, I am starting to see how the shoe was on the other foot...

Also: I blame ing Avenetti. He clearly gave very poor advice to his client and did not sufficiently prepare her for the media firestorm.

End rant...

[Pollster]

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1047834597382377472

Murray is correct. This is a strong, up and coming methodology that I have been working with colleagues on recently. Many of the issues with folks lacking email on the voter file can be easily resolved with third-party email matching (easier and less expensive than third-party cell phone number matching, which many pollsters already do). Response rates are also much higher and more evenly distributed across age groups.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1047794412577837056

Personally surprised to see Cisneros back in the lead, perhaps Monmouth overestimated R support, perhaps this poll is skewed D, or perhaps CA has really shifted due to Kavanaugh? I dont know, but overall, great results for Ds.

For some reason, Atlas has always underestimated Cisernos’ strength and waaaaaaay overestimated Kim’s.  I’ve expected a narrow Cisneros win here since before the primary, tbh.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Just a week or two - Chances of a Democratic senate we’re becoming very reasonable. The generic ballot had Dems up 12. Trump was embarrassing himself yet again. People were talking about the Dems breaking through the gerrymander wall and not just taking back the house but winning 40+

Now a week or two later, the Trumptard base of the GOP is up in arms because they want a partisan psychotic hack on the court and suddenly ... Bredesen is slipping, Heitkamp is a lost cause, Donnelly is way too close for comfort, McKaskill could go either way.

The implications could be horrific for the rule of law and reasonable common sense.

Because if the numbers hold the GOP will have a commanding majority in the senate in the sense that the Dems will not be able to take back control until 2026 if were being reasonable (2020 is a Presidential year and with Trump on the ballot there will be an historically low number of ticket splitting. Meaning hardly any pick ups. 2022 there will be a chance for a couple pick ups but not enough to knock down a 4-5-6 seat majority. Then 2024 is a Presidential year but it’ll be time for re-election of this class of Senators which is a overwhelmingly Republican favored class.

With Ginsburg surely retiring or god forbid passing (she’s up there in age) then you’re looking at 6-3 conservative majority - not just that but with at least 2 of those judges highly partisan.

I’ve always advocated for a split court. Four conservatives. Four liberals and 1 Centerist. Which is what we HAD until, well until when booze bag gets confirmed.

Weren’t you the guy who used to have NY avatar and was telling everyone the sky was falling because of #WalkAway?

[ON Progressive]

Just a week or two - Chances of a Democratic senate we’re becoming very reasonable. The generic ballot had Dems up 12. Trump was embarrassing himself yet again. People were talking about the Dems breaking through the gerrymander wall and not just taking back the house but winning 40+

Now a week or two later, the Trumptard base of the GOP is up in arms because they want a partisan psychotic hack on the court and suddenly ... Bredesen is slipping, Heitkamp is a lost cause, Donnelly is way too close for comfort, McKaskill could go either way.

The implications could be horrific for the rule of law and reasonable common sense.

Because if the numbers hold the GOP will have a commanding majority in the senate in the sense that the Dems will not be able to take back control until 2026 if were being reasonable (2020 is a Presidential year and with Trump on the ballot there will be an historically low number of ticket splitting. Meaning hardly any pick ups. 2022 there will be a chance for a couple pick ups but not enough to knock down a 4-5-6 seat majority. Then 2024 is a Presidential year but it’ll be time for re-election of this class of Senators which is a overwhelmingly Republican favored class.

With Ginsburg surely retiring or god forbid passing (she’s up there in age) then you’re looking at 6-3 conservative majority - not just that but with at least 2 of those judges highly partisan.

I’ve always advocated for a split court. Four conservatives. Four liberals and 1 Centerist. Which is what we HAD until, well until when booze bag gets confirmed.

Weren’t you the guy who used to have NY avatar and was telling everyone the sky was falling because of #WalkAway?

I don’t think so, but he thinks Nevada is a Lean R seat so I don’t take him seriously.

[Sestak]

Even if your scenario does play out, we’d still have a reasonable shot in 2020. CO, AZ, ME, IA, and maybe MT and GA will be on the table, while the only vulnerable seat is AL.

[KingSweden]

I'm not as pessimistic as the OP.

But the Kavanaugh battle is giving me premonitions of the "Access Hollywood" tape--something that should have been damaging and disqualifying for the Republicans but somehow through Repubican populist alchemy, playing off of rural America's general distaste for cultural liberalism, "SJW" Democrats and criticisms of the vaunted patriarchy, turned the election into a culture war that drowned out the many, many reasons that Trump should not have been elected.

Now I see the same lines in the sand being drawn around Kavanaugh and while Democrats have a majority of Americans on their side, the voters in critical red states where we need senate seats are only thinking about Kavanaugh now and not the tax boondoggle, preexisting conditions, the foolish tariffs, the latest misadventures of Trump political appointees, or any of the many many other reasons we need a congressional check on the maniac in the White House.

No wonder Lindsey and the right-wing noise machine are so gleeful in hammering Kavanaugh talking points. And in this debate, we're still paying the price for Bill Clinton's sins. The line of argument is very eye-for-an-eye but in Democrats' unflinching defenses of Bill Clinton, I am starting to see how the shoe was on the other foot...

Also: I blame ing Avenetti. He clearly gave very poor advice to his client and did not sufficiently prepare her for the media firestorm.

End rant...

When did the idea that Access Hollywood *helped* Trump come from? It dinged him for a week or two, then the Comey Letter hit and HillDawg forgot to campaign in the Midwest.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I'm not as pessimistic as the OP.

But the Kavanaugh battle is giving me premonitions of the "Access Hollywood" tape--something that should have been damaging and disqualifying for the Republicans but somehow through Repubican populist alchemy, playing off of rural America's general distaste for cultural liberalism, "SJW" Democrats and criticisms of the vaunted patriarchy, turned the election into a culture war that drowned out the many, many reasons that Trump should not have been elected.

Now I see the same lines in the sand being drawn around Kavanaugh and while Democrats have a majority of Americans on their side, the voters in critical red states where we need senate seats are only thinking about Kavanaugh now and not the tax boondoggle, preexisting conditions, the foolish tariffs, the latest misadventures of Trump political appointees, or any of the many many other reasons we need a congressional check on the maniac in the White House.

No wonder Lindsey and the right-wing noise machine are so gleeful in hammering Kavanaugh talking points. And in this debate, we're still paying the price for Bill Clinton's sins. The line of argument is very eye-for-an-eye but in Democrats' unflinching defenses of Bill Clinton, I am starting to see how the shoe was on the other foot...

Also: I blame ing Avenetti. He clearly gave very poor advice to his client and did not sufficiently prepare her for the media firestorm.

End rant...

When did the idea that Access Hollywood *helped* Trump come from? It dinged him for a week or two, then the Comey Letter hit and HillDawg forgot to campaign in the Midwest.

Yah if Clinton hadn’t forgotten to campaign in the Midwest she wins


Without Access Hollywood Trump wins the popular vote along with NV NH MN at the very least

[BudgieForce]

Even if your scenario does play out, we’d still have a reasonable shot in 2020. CO, AZ, ME, IA, and maybe MT and GA will be on the table, while the only vulnerable seat is AL.

If the Senate is 53R-47D or worse after 2018, the 2020 Senate map is near impossible

If the senate is 53-47 or worse on November 7th, then the night went terribly for democrats and there'd be bigger issues than 2020 looming for them.

[Orser67]

Now a week or two later, the Trumptard base of the GOP is up in arms because they want a partisan psychotic hack on the court and suddenly ... Bredesen is slipping, Heitkamp is a lost cause, Donnelly is way too close for comfort, McKaskill could go either way.

I'll grant that Heitkamp's recent polling has been worse than I expected, and she may well be a lost cause. But Democrats are doing reasonably well in all of their other seats, as well as NV + AZ, while TN + TX are still competitive. If Senate Democrats have 49 or 50 seats after this election, they'll still be in a strong position to take back the Senate in 2020 (assuming Trump loses) or 2022 (assuming Trump wins). Either of those scenarios would set the party up to pass legislation and confirm replacements for Ginsburg and Breyer (assuming they are still on the court at that point).

The horrific long-term implications would only come if Republicans pick up, say, 5 seats. Then I do think that Democrats would have a hard time taking back the Senate anytime soon.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

1. North Dakota: North Dakota is the retail politics capital of this Senate cycle, it's easy to campaign in, and polls have always sucked in North Dakota. With a month to go I'm worried, but come on.

2. Kavanaugh will be confirmed, probably with 1 or 2 Democrats, and on November 6th nobody, especially not the generally demoralized Republican base will care.

I'm an optimist, so maybe on November 7th I'll want to shoot myself for writing this, but this sure seems like another round of Atlas/Beltway Mania about how the Democrats are doomed and how THIS is why the Democrats will lose a billion gajillion seats in November.

[Xing]

GCB goes down from 8.5% to 8% -> OMG! Dems in disarray! Muh bloo wave is dead!!!! RIP Democratic House majority!!!

Come on. Enough concern trolling. The ONLY Senate race that has shown a significant trend toward Republicans is North Dakota. Some races (Indiana, according for Fox) trended very slightly toward the Democrats. While losing North Dakota would definitely make gaining the Senate significantly more difficult than it already is, it still looks as though Democrats will end up around 47-50 seats. The House polls have been a mixed bag, but the dramatic reaction to the slightest downward trend for the Democrats is unwarranted. If the Democrats continue to tank until they're at +3 by the end of October, then we'll talk.

[2016]

1. North Dakota: North Dakota is the retail politics capital of this Senate cycle, it's easy to campaign in, and polls have always sucked in North Dakota. With a month to go I'm worried, but come on.

2. Kavanaugh will be confirmed, probably with 1 or 2 Democrats, and on November 6th nobody, especially not the generally demoralized Republican base will care.

I'm an optimist, so maybe on November 7th I'll want to shoot myself for writing this, but this sure seems like another round of Atlas/Beltway Mania about how the Democrats are doomed and how THIS is why the Democrats will lose a billion gajillion seats in November.

The Democrats can do NOTHING if they don't take the Senate and Republicans with Kavernaugh being confirmed will do everything in their Power to prevent that from happening.