2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 130601 times)
Brittain33
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« Reply #300 on: September 23, 2018, 09:03:39 AM »
I wonder if Trump's bump from the rescue of those Thai children in the cave might be fading.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #301 on: September 23, 2018, 09:53:04 AM »
CBS/YouGov projects that Dems will win the House vote 52.1-43.7 (D+8.4). The estimated # of Dem seats is 224 (+29, wins house by 6.5 seats), though with a bound of 213 (short by 5) to 235 (over by 18).

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/09/23/cbs-news-yougov-house-model-democrats-224-republic
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #302 on: September 23, 2018, 11:18:29 AM »
Fox News-

43% of voters say a candidate being supported by Barack Obama is more likely to get their support compared to 33% who say otherwise.

It's 29/44% less likely with Trump, and 27/39% less likely with Pence.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #303 on: September 23, 2018, 11:43:49 AM »
Quote from: Bandit3 the Worker on September 23, 2018, 08:59:43 AM
Quote from: TheRocketRaccoon on September 23, 2018, 08:58:16 AM
Fox News GCB: D+6 RV (46-40), D+7 LV (49-42)

Aw, poor Fox News thinks it'll be closer than D +9.

If the actual margin is around D+9, which I think is pretty close, it's perfectly normal to see some polls at both Fox's D+6 and the D+12 reported this morning by NBC/WSJ.  Fox News is a biased organization, but they use good pollsters that don't inject that bias into their results.
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2016
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« Reply #304 on: September 23, 2018, 12:44:38 PM »
CBS House Estimate
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #305 on: September 23, 2018, 01:31:28 PM »
To be more accurate, YouGov's estimate.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #306 on: September 23, 2018, 01:33:10 PM »

Why do they have a Safe D race like NV-03 as a "key House race"?
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Politician
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« Reply #307 on: September 23, 2018, 01:40:35 PM »
Uh, why is GA-6 a battleground? Handel is as likely to win as Rouzer or Marchant.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #308 on: September 23, 2018, 01:44:31 PM »
lol, GA-7 is more likely to flip than GA-6 at this point.  And why are are CA-50, VA-05, and WI-01 ignored on that map?
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Xing
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« Reply #309 on: September 23, 2018, 02:07:00 PM »
"Key House Races": Includes AZ-01 and NV-03, but not races like NC-02 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #310 on: September 23, 2018, 02:56:12 PM »
There's evidence of the GCB lead coming down slightly from its height about a week ago, although it's probably just reversion to the mean.
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American2020
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« Reply #311 on: September 23, 2018, 03:12:32 PM »
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IceSpear
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« Reply #312 on: September 23, 2018, 03:17:14 PM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on September 23, 2018, 08:40:50 AM
These likely voter screens are gonna give me heart burn.

Dems up 8 points gives you heartburn?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #313 on: September 23, 2018, 03:20:46 PM »
Quote from: American2020 on September 23, 2018, 03:12:32 PM


I posted that upthread early this morning.  This is their first likely voter number of the cycle.  Among registered voters, it was 52/40 (up from 50/42 last month).
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #314 on: September 23, 2018, 03:34:38 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on September 23, 2018, 03:17:14 PM
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on September 23, 2018, 08:40:50 AM
These likely voter screens are gonna give me heart burn.

Dems up 8 points gives you heartburn?

Dems dropping 4 points due to a likely voter screen give me heartburn.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #315 on: September 23, 2018, 03:35:26 PM »
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on September 23, 2018, 03:34:38 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on September 23, 2018, 03:17:14 PM
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on September 23, 2018, 08:40:50 AM
These likely voter screens are gonna give me heart burn.

Dems up 8 points gives you heartburn?

Dems dropping 4 points due to a likely voter screen give me heartburn.

It just makes me think it's a poor screen for this year.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #316 on: September 23, 2018, 03:50:55 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on September 23, 2018, 03:35:26 PM
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on September 23, 2018, 03:34:38 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on September 23, 2018, 03:17:14 PM
Quote from: superbudgie1582 on September 23, 2018, 08:40:50 AM
These likely voter screens are gonna give me heart burn.

Dems up 8 points gives you heartburn?

Dems dropping 4 points due to a likely voter screen give me heartburn.

It just makes me think it's a poor screen for this year.

Hopefully. I can already imagine the freakouts if an 8 point margin gets reduced to a 4 point margin due to a voter screen.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #317 on: September 23, 2018, 05:16:15 PM »

NH-01 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #318 on: September 23, 2018, 05:40:04 PM »
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #319 on: September 23, 2018, 07:33:47 PM »
I couldn't find any mention of this poll in the thread - not sure if it was privately disclosed to 538 or not - but while searching for past polls of Garin-Hart-Yang, I came across this poll link on 538's domain in search results (conducted in July, sent to 538 in August):

McGrath 50
Barr 43

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20180914_ME.pdf
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #320 on: September 23, 2018, 07:38:18 PM »
^^^ Looks like 538 quietly added it to its database on September 14...not sure why they waited a month to add a poll that was already a month old when they got it (perhaps some sort of agreement?).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/kentucky/6/
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #321 on: September 23, 2018, 08:06:15 PM »
Quote from: Fmr. Pres. Griff on September 23, 2018, 07:33:47 PM
I couldn't find any mention of this poll in the thread - not sure if it was privately disclosed to 538 or not - but while searching for past polls of Garin-Hart-Yang, I came across this poll link on 538's domain in search results (conducted in July, sent to 538 in August):

McGrath 50
Barr 43

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20180914_ME.pdf




Very nice!
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
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« Reply #322 on: September 23, 2018, 10:09:43 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2018, 07:00:15 AM by Brittain33 »
Quote from: Secret Cavern Survivor on September 23, 2018, 02:56:12 PM
There's evidence of the GCB lead coming down slightly from its height about a week ago, although it's probably just reversion to the mean.
The McCain funeral penalty is over...and there is some concern over Latino districts not panning out for Dems as hoped.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #323 on: September 24, 2018, 03:30:27 PM »
PPP Polls-

TX-07-

Fletcher (D): 47%
Culberson (R): 45%

TX-32-

Allred (D): 47%
Sessions (R): 42%
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #324 on: September 24, 2018, 03:31:26 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on September 24, 2018, 03:30:27 PM
PPP Polls-

TX-07-

Fletcher (D): 47%
Culberson (R): 45%

TX-32-

Allred (D): 47%
Sessions (R): 42%
Are these internals?
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