2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

This is an interesting graphic. I knew the pundits way underestimated the wave throughout the summer of 2010, but I didn't remember that it went into September as well.

For the record, Republicans gained 63 seats and won the GCB by 6.8% in 2010.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Gerrymandering is like a sea wall. It can blunt small waves, such as D+5 or something along the lines. But against a large wave, such as the one we are seeing, and suddenly, it all falls apart. The VA, NC, and NJ gerrymanders are already falling apart, and a larger D wave may be able to peirce OH, MI, WI, among others.

This is nonsense. A gerrymander can only be said to be "falling apart" or "failing" if it actually backfires - that means that it ends up producing more Dem seats than a neutral/fair map would. With the seats that are currently rated as competitive, we are not at that point in any of these states (except for NJ, but see below).

As for NJ, it is not a Republican gerrymander, it is a bipartisan incumbent-protection map. The purpose of drawing it was not to maximize partisan GOP gain or partisan safe seats, but rather to give the best districts they could to the people who happened to be incumbents when the maps were drawn (which happened to include a lot of long-term incumbents who were holding down territory that had drifted towards Ds even by 2010).

As for NC, Dems have 3/13 seats there. In the best case projected at the moment, they could (possibly) gain maybe 3 seats (say, NC-02, NC-09, NC-13). But a neutral/fair map in NC. So Republicans definitely benefit from their gerrymander, and it is in no way as though their gerrymander is coming back to bite them. For it to backfire, Dems would have to win more than would be achievable in a fair/neutral map - something like 10 seats, which is just beyond the current realm of plausibility.

As for VA, it is only "falling apart" in the sense that it has been redrawn by courts. For example, VA-07 would not be as competitive as it is if it were not redrawn as a result of the VRA lawsuits affecting neighboring districts. VA-10 is of course a likely Dem pickup, but the GOP knew that seat was a ticking time bomb when they drew it - they were just trying to squeeze out one more winnable seat for as long as it could hold.

In OH/MI/WI, Dems may pick up 1 or 2 seats, but they are not currently projected to win any more than they would get in a neutral/fair map. For example, in Ohio Dems would need to gain more than 3-4 seats for that to be the case (even 4 seats, which is pretty darn unlikely, would only bring Dems up to having 50% of the seats, which is hardly unreasonable for a neutral map in a competitive state like OH!). Hence, those gerrymanders are not "falling apart."

[IceSpear]

This is an interesting graphic. I knew the pundits way underestimated the wave throughout the summer of 2010, but I didn't remember that it went into September as well.

Things not included in that graphic that favor 2010 Republicans in comparison to the situation currently faced by 2018 Democrats:


1) Low hanging fruit - There was much more "low hanging fruit" for 2010 Republicans to pick. By this, I mean that there were lots of R+ PVI seats with Dem incumbents which they could win merely by getting the Congressional vote to reflect the Presidential vote

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2010/House/house.html.

Just compare this to the list of Dems who lost to see how many R+5, R+10, R+15, and even R+20 seats were easy pickings for the GOP. By contrast, there are currently very few D+ PVI, and the ones that do exist tend to be more like D+5 at the most (e.g. Valadao, Katko, Curbelo, FL-27, and I think there are literally 0 more significantly D+ districts to win besides those!)


Republican gerrymandering - Probably more than cancels out the fact that Dems are currently doing a few points better on the generic congressional ballot than Reps in 2010 were.


Republican voter suppression laws, control of Secretaries of State/Election Administrations and willingness to use them for partisan vote suppression purposes - So some of the Dems giving the leads on the GCB will end up in some instances not able to vote at all.


Senate map - This is also related to the gerrymandering of the Senate, but Republicans had a much better Senate map to work with in 2010 than the Dems in 2018. Even so, they whiffed on a lot of pickup opportunities in 2010.


In short, the elections are systematically rigged in favor of Republicans.


If all that mattered were the will of the people as expressed by their votes, there would be much less of a problem - Dems would be in great shape. Of course, if that were the case, then Hillary Clinton would also be President right now as well. And Al Gore would have been President in 2000. And Dems would have won back the house in 2012 after having lost it in 2010 (Dems won the 2012 House popular vote - winning the popular vote by a margin of 1.2% translated into losing the # of seats by a margin of 7.6%).

It is extremely likely that Dems will win the House popular vote, and most likely by quite a large margin. But people's votes are only one of a number of factors determining the results of US elections.

Yeah, but most of that stuff is already baked into the analysis. Not a lot of people think Dems are going to win 60+ seats after all.

[Nyvin]

Gerrymanders also have a shelf life.    After 8 years the demographics and voter interests of the districts are bound to change, especially in high growth districts like VA-10.   

The same thing happened in Pennsylvania in 2000-2006.   Republicans built a gerrymander in the state but by the end of the decade Democrats actually held a majority of the seats.

[Zaybay]

snip

Alright, you seem to have, once again, ignored my first statement and amplified the rest. My first statement is that, if the Dems can break the gerrymander. I didnt say they can, only if. Two of these gerrymanders seem to be falling apart, NJ and VA, but the others are holding firm, and would require around a D+12 environment to fall.

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Alright, Im just going to ask, if an incumbent protection plan is made after the 2010 wave election, who benefits? The Republicans. NJ has a heavy Republican bias in its map because it had to contort to protect the 6 Republicans and 6 Democrats(NJ is a heavily Democratic state). It doesnt matter what the intent is, it still makes it a gerrymander. MD and IL are also incumbent protection plans, but they are also considered gerrymanders.

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I have no idea why you think winning 10 seats is proof that a gerrymander has backfired. The way to tell if it backfires is if the Democrats win more seats than a neutral map would have allowed. For instance, Ds reach their ceiling of 8 in a neutral map, according to Daily Kos Elections. But in the current gerrymander, it is possible to reach 9 and more, and polling done of these races suggests this to be true. It hasnt broken yet, but it is on the cusp.

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Yeah, it was court ordered, doesnt make it a gerrymander. The map drawn by the Republican supreme court of VA basically made a gerrymander(it still has a heavy Republican bias), but made it easier to break. If drawn fairly, the Dems would have 7, but with the current map would allow them to get 8.

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I didnt say these are falling apart, just that they might. And 50% of a state doesnt make it fair. The PA map drawn by a court that has Ds in it and is rather fair still gives Rs an advantage of 1-2 seats. OH is similar. The Ds are packed into cities, so the only way to make a fair map that gives Ds 50-50 would be to carve up the cities and to basically create a D gerrymander. For OH, the best the Dems can do in a fair map is 7(there best result, winning all the tossups,is just a bit over 1/2) seats, while in the gerrymander, 8+ seats can be taken. WI is similar, with 4 seats being the best result, and 5 possible seats in the gerrymander. MI is the same story, with 8 seats being able to be taken from a fair map, and 10 seats in the gerrymander. Its not at this point for these states, but it could easily be in NOV.


There is also this:

Gerrymanders also have a shelf life.    After 8 years the demographics and voter interests of the districts are bound to change, especially in high growth districts like VA-10.   

The same thing happened in Pennsylvania in 2000-2006.   Republicans built a gerrymander in the state but by the end of the decade Democrats actually held a majority of the seats.

And its totally correct. Most of these seats were drawn when the Republicans held the suburbs, but with them as a tossup, many, such as NJ, are becoming dummymanders.

[Virginiá]

Just to note - Virginia's Congressional districts were redrawn in 2016 by a federal judicial panel. They were only fixing the district(s) in question, which is why the rest of the map is the way it is.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Just to note - Virginia's Congressional districts were redrawn in 2016 by a federal judicial panel. They were only fixing the district(s) in question, which is why the rest of the map is the way it is.

This includes VA-07. The map drew Hanover county out of VA-07. Hanover County is where the college he taught at before running for Congress is located, and is the most heavily Republican county with a reasonably large population in the area.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/irony-and-glamour-in-virginias-redrawn-7th-district/2018/05/18/bd68de26-5860-11e8-858f-12becb4d6067_story.html

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If the district was still as it was before, Spanberger would have a tougher time, and who knows, perhaps wouldn't even have run.

[libertpaulian]

With Kavanaugh's accuser making her identity known and her therapist and her husband corroborating her accounts, expect another Dem bump in the polls.

[NOVA Green]

I'm a bit surprised people are just writing off OH-12. Balderson barely squeaked it out, and this fall, Dems will have the turnout edge with someone like Brown probably having huge margins in the Senate race. It's definitely plausible for O'Connor to win.

Not to mention, I wouldn't be surprised if the Franklin County margin was even bigger for O'Connor now than it was before after Balderson's remarks sink in. When he said it, it was only like a day before the election.

I'm not writing OH-12 off....

Assuming that when you talk about Franklin County % margins is what you are speaking to, since overall turnout will likely be quite a bit higher in November, as will raw vote margins for both DEMs and REPs alike within their respective support bases.

This race is still very much a tossup, albeit with an extremely narrow PUB edge....

[Zaybay]

With Kavanaugh's accuser making her identity known and her therapist and her husband corroborating her accounts, expect another Dem bump in the polls.

Ooof, this is bad for the Republicans. Not that it will make a large difference in the polls. What it will do is stall the vote, put pressure on both Red State Rs and the moderate Ds, along with hurting Feinstein due to her not releasing it. This will be very interesting.

[junior chįmp]

GOP in big BIG trouble:

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[Nyvin]

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https://apnews.com/63c4fccca46841bdad47257f9776c361/Grim-warnings-for-White-House,-Republicans-ahead-of-election

I've heard this argument said on this very forum dozens of times.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://www.abqjournal.com/1221685/haaland-ahead-of-arnoldjones-4941.html

NM-1 Research & Polling: Haaland (D) 49, Arnold-Jones (R) 41, Princeton (L) 3

[BlueDogs2020]

OMG OMG OMG!
New Emerson WV poll--- Ojeda and Manchin leads!
https://www.emerson.edu/office-of-communications/media-relations/press-releases/emerson-e-poll-manchin-leads-12-points-west-virginia-senate-race-democrats-look-take-1-possibly-2-house-seats#.W5-yMf5KhUN
But with a lot of undecideds.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

OMG OMG OMG!
New Emerson WV poll--- Ojeda and Manchin leads!
https://www.emerson.edu/office-of-communications/media-relations/press-releases/emerson-e-poll-manchin-leads-12-points-west-virginia-senate-race-democrats-look-take-1-possibly-2-house-seats#.W5-yMf5KhUN
But with a lot of undecideds.

But why is David McKinley ahead by so much? Isn't he a Tea Party guy?

[Politician]

OMG OMG OMG!
New Emerson WV poll--- Ojeda and Manchin leads!
https://www.emerson.edu/office-of-communications/media-relations/press-releases/emerson-e-poll-manchin-leads-12-points-west-virginia-senate-race-democrats-look-take-1-possibly-2-house-seats#.W5-yMf5KhUN
But with a lot of undecideds.

Way too many undecideds to be meaningful, but good news for the Ojeda camp. Maybe we shouldn't have written him off?

[Stranger in a strange land]

OMG OMG OMG!
New Emerson WV poll--- Ojeda and Manchin leads!
https://www.emerson.edu/office-of-communications/media-relations/press-releases/emerson-e-poll-manchin-leads-12-points-west-virginia-senate-race-democrats-look-take-1-possibly-2-house-seats#.W5-yMf5KhUN
But with a lot of undecideds.

Way too many undecideds to be meaningful, but good news for the Ojeda camp. Maybe we shouldn't have written him off?

In addition to being a great candidate and a great fit for the district, Ojeda also lucked out with his opponent, a rich old white lady who doesn't appear to be taking the race seriously and whose website is literally just a landing page with a bunch of platitudes: https://www.electcarolmiller.com/.

[BlueDogs2020]

OMG OMG OMG!
New Emerson WV poll--- Ojeda and Manchin leads!
https://www.emerson.edu/office-of-communications/media-relations/press-releases/emerson-e-poll-manchin-leads-12-points-west-virginia-senate-race-democrats-look-take-1-possibly-2-house-seats#.W5-yMf5KhUN
But with a lot of undecideds.

Way too many undecideds to be meaningful, but good news for the Ojeda camp. Maybe we shouldn't have written him off?

In addition to being a great candidate and a great fit for the district, Ojeda also lucked out with his opponent, a rich old white lady who doesn't appear to be taking the race seriously and whose website is literally just a landing page with a bunch of platitudes: https://www.electcarolmiller.com/.

Yeah it doesn't mean that much except that it's still a Tossup--- but definitely not bad news for Ojeda either!
Manchin definitely has a tangible lead even though there are a lot of undecideds, and his biggest lead is most certainly in the 3rd district--- coattails could help Ojeda quite a bit.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Talley Sergent actually competitive?

[Jeppe]

OMG OMG OMG!
New Emerson WV poll--- Ojeda and Manchin leads!
https://www.emerson.edu/office-of-communications/media-relations/press-releases/emerson-e-poll-manchin-leads-12-points-west-virginia-senate-race-democrats-look-take-1-possibly-2-house-seats#.W5-yMf5KhUN
But with a lot of undecideds.

The sample size is literally 1/2 of the Siena poll. Emerson's district-level polls in statewide races are awful (like Dave Young +15 over Cindy Axne in IA-03), because they have such small sample sizes.

[McGovernForPrez]

OMG OMG OMG!
New Emerson WV poll--- Ojeda and Manchin leads!
https://www.emerson.edu/office-of-communications/media-relations/press-releases/emerson-e-poll-manchin-leads-12-points-west-virginia-senate-race-democrats-look-take-1-possibly-2-house-seats#.W5-yMf5KhUN
But with a lot of undecideds.

The sample size is literally 1/2 of the Siena poll. Emerson's district-level polls in statewide races are awful (like Dave Young +15 over Cindy Axne in IA-03), because they have such small sample sizes.

Yeah but there's still the Monmouth poll showing Ojeda ahead. People here are way too quick to write a candidate off over one poll.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/cweiser/status/1041729739118071808

[BlueDogs2020]

OMG OMG OMG!
New Emerson WV poll--- Ojeda and Manchin leads!
https://www.emerson.edu/office-of-communications/media-relations/press-releases/emerson-e-poll-manchin-leads-12-points-west-virginia-senate-race-democrats-look-take-1-possibly-2-house-seats#.W5-yMf5KhUN
But with a lot of undecideds.

The sample size is literally 1/2 of the Siena poll. Emerson's district-level polls in statewide races are awful (like Dave Young +15 over Cindy Axne in IA-03), because they have such small sample sizes.

Yeah but there's still the Monmouth poll showing Ojeda ahead. People here are way too quick to write a candidate off over one poll.

Yeah; it is a Tossup race and will be really close. The NYT will repoll WV3 before election day so at least there will be another good poll.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

OMG OMG OMG!
New Emerson WV poll--- Ojeda and Manchin leads!
https://www.emerson.edu/office-of-communications/media-relations/press-releases/emerson-e-poll-manchin-leads-12-points-west-virginia-senate-race-democrats-look-take-1-possibly-2-house-seats#.W5-yMf5KhUN
But with a lot of undecideds.

But why is David McKinley ahead by so much? Isn't he a Tea Party guy?

Idk, but he is quite popular, even organized labor has his back.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

ME-2 Mellman (Golden internal): Golden 54, Poliquin 46 after IRV

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20180917_ME.pdf