2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3
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  2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: 2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3  (Read 130585 times)
john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #25 on: September 13, 2018, 01:07:55 PM »
The NPR/Marist poll was Dems up 50-38.  I think this guy just made a typo with the second digit of the Dem number or misread something.
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CapoteMonster
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« Reply #26 on: September 13, 2018, 01:27:44 PM »
It's been 20 years since they held this district, so maybe not.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #27 on: September 13, 2018, 01:30:29 PM »
Quote from: Dem Senate Majority Folly on September 13, 2018, 01:07:25 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on September 13, 2018, 12:59:27 PM
According to this tweet, the GCB from Marist is D+17, but I though Marist already released one like three days ago.

Yeah, that doesn't jive with the latest Fox Senate polls from IN & TN. Marist being a D-leaner confirmed.
Maybe.

It seems the big difference between Fox and Marist is with Trump's approval ratings.

Indiana
Fox has Trump +10 (54/44)
Marist has Trump +2 (48/46)

Tennessee
Fox has Trump +20 (58/38)
Marist has Trump +4 (47/43)

Though they're pretty much in agreement in Missouri.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #28 on: September 13, 2018, 01:48:53 PM »
Quote from: reagente on September 13, 2018, 01:25:33 PM
Am I wrong for thinking the Democrats should be up by way more in this district?




I think Dave Wasserman made a good point that the mid-year redistricting could complicate some polling in PA.
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hofoid
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« Reply #29 on: September 13, 2018, 01:49:28 PM »
Quote from: new_patomic on September 13, 2018, 01:30:29 PM
Quote from: Dem Senate Majority Folly on September 13, 2018, 01:07:25 PM
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on September 13, 2018, 12:59:27 PM
According to this tweet, the GCB from Marist is D+17, but I though Marist already released one like three days ago.

Yeah, that doesn't jive with the latest Fox Senate polls from IN & TN. Marist being a D-leaner confirmed.
Maybe.

It seems the big difference between Fox and Marist is with Trump's approval ratings.

Indiana
Fox has Trump +10 (54/44)
Marist has Trump +2 (48/46)

Tennessee
Fox has Trump +20 (58/38)
Marist has Trump +4 (47/43)

Though they're pretty much in agreement in Missouri.
Morning Consult agrees with FOX on Tennessee, which makes me believe the Fox poll. It also is somewhere in between Fox and Marist on Indiana, but considering MC overestimates Dem strength in the Midwest...I'll believe Fox as well.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #30 on: September 13, 2018, 01:50:54 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on September 13, 2018, 01:48:53 PM
Quote from: reagente on September 13, 2018, 01:25:33 PM
Am I wrong for thinking the Democrats should be up by way more in this district?




I think Dave Wasserman made a good point that the mid-year redistricting could complicate some polling in PA.

What was his argument?
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new_patomic
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« Reply #31 on: September 13, 2018, 01:57:38 PM »
Morning Consult is an online-only pollster.

I wouldn't consider them at all versus two established pollsters who call landlines/cell phones.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #32 on: September 13, 2018, 02:08:03 PM »
Quote from: CapoteMonster on September 13, 2018, 01:27:44 PM
It's been 20 years since they held this district, so maybe not.

Yes, this is quite good for a Dem here and it's likely to flip R in 2022 if a Dem wins 2020.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #33 on: September 13, 2018, 02:12:33 PM »
Quote from: Tintrlvr on September 13, 2018, 01:50:54 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on September 13, 2018, 01:48:53 PM
Quote from: reagente on September 13, 2018, 01:25:33 PM
Am I wrong for thinking the Democrats should be up by way more in this district?




I think Dave Wasserman made a good point that the mid-year redistricting could complicate some polling in PA.

What was his argument?

Sorry it was Patrick Murray:
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #34 on: September 13, 2018, 04:38:22 PM »
The key is always Trump's approval rating.

He lost by 1 in PA-07. Monmouth has his approval at -2. So..... yeah. That sample might be a bit R-leaning, and it still has Wild up 2-6.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #35 on: September 13, 2018, 06:27:32 PM »
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politicallefty
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« Reply #36 on: September 14, 2018, 03:03:38 AM »
That's a fairly weak number for a Republican internal for OK-05, under 50% with a mid-teens lead. I could be wrong, but I haven't seen anyone rate that district as anything but Safe R. That should probably be Likely R. Don't get me wrong, if we're winning OK-05, we're probably pushing a 70+ seat gain. I wish I could be that optimistic.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #37 on: September 14, 2018, 10:08:20 AM »
https://www.insidernj.com/press-release/dccc-kim-leads-macarthur-3rd-district-house-race/

NJ-3 DCCC internal: Kim 47, MacArthur 45
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #38 on: September 14, 2018, 12:10:05 PM »

Yeah, McArthur is favored.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #39 on: September 14, 2018, 12:12:42 PM »

No he isnt. We have an independent poll of the race putting Kim up, and just because its an internal doesnt mean to add 5 points to the other side. Stop sounding the alarm every time a D candidate isnt above by 6.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #40 on: September 14, 2018, 12:13:19 PM »
Quote from: Zaybay on September 14, 2018, 12:12:42 PM

No he isnt. We have an independent poll of the race putting Kim up, and just because its an internal doesnt mean to add 5 points to the other side. Stop sounding the alarm every time a D candidate isnt above by 6.

Yeah this is a pure toss up.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #41 on: September 14, 2018, 12:14:01 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on September 14, 2018, 12:13:19 PM
Quote from: Zaybay on September 14, 2018, 12:12:42 PM

No he isnt. We have an independent poll of the race putting Kim up, and just because its an internal doesnt mean to add 5 points to the other side. Stop sounding the alarm every time a D candidate isnt above by 6.

Yeah this is a pure toss up.
I would agree with this, and would give an edge to Kim. It depends on how the undecideds fall.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #42 on: September 14, 2018, 06:48:05 PM »
Kim has the edge. Monmouth also had him up.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #43 on: September 14, 2018, 07:25:39 PM »
Coffman finishes trailing Crow by 11 in the NYT/Sienna poll, 51 to 40. His reelection chances are not looking very good at all, especially considering how Democrats have surged in registrations in his seat since 2016.
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #44 on: September 14, 2018, 08:40:20 PM »
https://dccc.org/640854-2/

IA-3 DCCC internal: Axne (D) 46, Young (R-inc) 43
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #45 on: September 14, 2018, 08:40:55 PM »

Which poll gave Young a larger lead than King last week? lmao

Anyways, this poll shows Axne winning 22% of Republicans #WalkAway
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Politician
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« Reply #46 on: September 14, 2018, 08:45:58 PM »
Yep, Young's going down. Lol at that poll showing him outrunning Steve King.
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hofoid
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« Reply #47 on: September 14, 2018, 08:46:25 PM »
This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #48 on: September 14, 2018, 08:48:07 PM »
Quote from: Dem Senate Majority Folly on September 14, 2018, 08:46:25 PM
This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #49 on: September 14, 2018, 09:55:53 PM »
Quote from: PittsburghSteel on September 14, 2018, 08:48:07 PM
Quote from: Dem Senate Majority Folly on September 14, 2018, 08:46:25 PM
This race isn't getting triaged. These polls are great for the GOP to be only down 3 in a Dem internal.

LMAO down 3 points, GCB in the district is D+10, Axne winning 22% of Republicans. Young would be lucky to lose by less than 10 points at this point.
If Iowa ends up with a 3-1 Dem Congressional delegation come January 2019, it becomes a swing state in 2020.
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