2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Virginiá]

Please post:

• Generic Congressional Ballot
• House district polls
• commentary

Senate and Gubernatorial polls can go into their dedicated groups.

Previous thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295246.0
Even older thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=282555.0


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Locked / see megathread part 4: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=304960.0

[IceSpear]

NC-2: Civitas has Coleman +1.

Now this is what you call a SHOCK POLL. Every pundit has this as likely R, and Civitas is a Republican pollster...

[wbrocks67]

Lol

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1039670145847885824

I'm more interested at what whacko at the National Journal thinks the recent polling shows this in the margin of error. Brown has led every legit poll by like 15 on average.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Now this is what you call a SHOCK POLL. Every pundit has this as likely R, and Civitas is a Republican pollster...

It does fit the sort of district where the wave could be especially large though. Suburban Raleigh certainly has plenty of educated whites who will turn out and could easily swing greatly Democratic.

Plus particularly strong backlash caused by the craziness of the NC GOP.

Plus there are ancestral Dems in the more rural parts.

[IceSpear]

NC-2: Civitas has Coleman +1.

NC-02 has been a Tossup from the start, and it's surprising that more people haven't caught onto that fact. Hopefully the pundits will realize it (who am I kidding, they won't).

But Charlie Cook told me it is just as competitive as Jim Costa's seat.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

538 right now has nearly an identical prediction to mine on how Skippy Scott will do. Loses by near a point and has a 45% chance or so of winning.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1039997854046199808

[TarHeelDem]

NC-2: Civitas has Coleman +1.

NC-02 has been a Tossup from the start, and it's surprising that more people haven't caught onto that fact. Hopefully the pundits will realize it (who am I kidding, they won't).

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Dems up 22 points in the suburbs and 14 in the Midwest according to Marist.

Paging Rino Tom.

[IceSpear]

FOX polled the North Dakota House race as well:

Armstrong (R) 48
Schneider (D) 34

Not bad for Dems by North Dakota standards, but considering even Heitkamp is struggling, probably outside the realm of possibility.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Some of these polls seem a lot better for Dems than individual district polls. What’s the average difference?

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1039997854046199808

Sleeper race in an area of Florida that’s is growing fast. This may encourage Carlson to dump more of her money into the race.

[wbrocks67]

Wondering when CNN is going to release their GCB from their poll....

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

NC-2 is my district. I think Coleman could easily win. But minority turnout is crucial.

[smoltchanov]

NC-2 is my district. I think Coleman could easily win. But minority turnout is crucial.

Easily? Doubt it. But - she can win...

[Gass3268]

CNN

LV:

52% Democrats
42% Republicans

RV:

52% Democrats
40% Republicans (-1)

Source

[Florida Man for Crime]

CNN (LV):

52% Democrats
42% Republicans

Source

The last CNN poll in early August was 52-41, although that was with RV, not LV.

[Zaybay]

CNN (LV):

52% Democrats
42% Republicans

Source

The last CNN poll in early August was 52-41.

DEMOCRATS IN DISSSSSARRAY!!!111!!11!11!111!!111

[Florida Man for Crime]

DEMOCRATS IN DISSSSSARRAY!!!111!!11!11!111!!111

I just realized that earlier poll was RV, so we should compare to the RV in this poll for the trend.

[Zaybay]

DEMOCRATS IN DISSSSSARRAY!!!111!!11!11!111!!111

I just realized that earlier poll was RV, so we should compare to the RV in this poll for the trend.

BLUE WAVE INCOMING 1000+ SEAT VICTORY PERMANENT DEM MAJORITY!11!!1

[Florida Man for Crime]

BLUE WAVE INCOMING 1000+ SEAT VICTORY PERMANENT DEM MAJORITY!11!!1

RVs are 52-40.

[Zaybay]

BLUE WAVE INCOMING 1000+ SEAT VICTORY PERMANENT DEM MAJORITY!11!!1

RVs are 52-40.

Alright, Ill be serious. These are excellent numbers and continue the double digit spike we have seen since Labour day. What matters is how those undecideds split, and I think the Healthcare spike in October should shift them D.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Yeah, it seems like every single high quality phone poll at this point is pretty much giving Dems a double-digit lead in the GCB.

The only one that is not is Selzer, but her reputation was built on Iowa caucus polling, not national general election polling.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

According to this tweet, the GCB from Marist is D+17, but I though Marist already released one like three days ago.
https://twitter.com/edwardthardy/status/1040260061086408705?s=21

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

According to this tweet, the GCB from Marist is D+17, but I though Marist already released one like three days ago.
https://twitter.com/edwardthardy/status/1040260061086408705?s=21

Yeah, that doesn't jibe with the latest Fox Senate polls from IN & TN. Marist might be a D-leaner.