2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[I Can Now Die Happy]

We can afford to lose Comstock and Fitzpatrick. I maintain that the GCB can very well be close to D+low-single-digits on election day. Reuters/Ipsos had it at D+11, now at D+7. Tick tock.

[JG]

We can afford to lose Comstock and Fitzpatrick. I maintain that the GCB can very well be close to D+low-single-digits on election day. Reuters/Ipsos had it at D+11, now at D+7. Tick tock.

Didn't you have the CGB tied yesterday, and now at low single digits? That's a pretty impressive upward trend for the Dems. Tick tock.

[Brittain33]

We can afford to lose Comstock and Fitzpatrick. I maintain that the GCB can very well be close to D+low-single-digits on election day. Reuters/Ipsos had it at D+11, now at D+7. Tick tock.

Didn't you have the CGB tied yesterday, and now at low single digits? That's a pretty impressive upward trend for the Dems. Tick tock.

Less than two weeks left of this character, hopefully.

[Zaybay]

We can afford to lose Comstock and Fitzpatrick. I maintain that the GCB can very well be close to D+low-single-digits on election day. Reuters/Ipsos had it at D+11, now at D+7. Tick tock.

At least be realistic. The GCB isnt going to descend into low-single digits. This would require a literal 9/11 to happen. The undecideds would have to be all GOP voters for this to happen. It has a chance, but its as likely as winning the lottery.

Also, Ipsos having wild swings is not new. Not at all. One day, they went from D+15 to D+0, and then back to D+12, and then to D+4. Thats kind of their thing.

[Person Man]

We can afford to lose Comstock and Fitzpatrick. I maintain that the GCB can very well be close to D+low-single-digits on election day. Reuters/Ipsos had it at D+11, now at D+7. Tick tock.

At least be realistic. The GCB isnt going to descend into low-single digits. This would require a literal 9/11 to happen. The undecideds would have to be all GOP voters for this to happen. It has a chance, but its as likely as winning the lottery.

Also, Ipsos having wild swings is not new. Not at all. One day, they went from D+15 to D+0, and then back to D+12, and then to D+4. Thats kind of their thing.

It's weighted so much that it cause the Republicans to improve by 1 in by the GCB and TA @ RCP and improve by like 1-2% @538.

[MT Treasurer]

Comstock was always DOA and would have lost even in a Clinton midterm.

[libertpaulian]

Comstock was always DOA and would have lost even in a Clinton midterm.

Uh, no.

[KingSweden]

Comstock was always DOA and would have lost even in a Clinton midterm.

Uh, no.

Shed have a decent shot at Senator Comstoxk in a Clinton midterm

[libertpaulian]

Comstock was always DOA and would have lost even in a Clinton midterm.

Uh, no.

Shed have a decent shot at Senator Comstoxk in a Clinton midterm

Scott Taylor might be a better Senate candidate, but I agree, she'd be good as well.

[MT Treasurer]

Comstock was always DOA and would have lost even in a Clinton midterm.

Uh, no.

Even if we assume that a district's/state's trend/partisan lean doesn’t matter in an off-year or midterm election, she was always on borrowed time and would have been wiped off the face of earth in the next presidential year. Candidate Quality™ only gets you so far in a district like this (or NOVA/VA in general). VA-10 is a district where Clinton would have remained fairly popular even if her approvals had dropped into the low 40s nationally (plausible, but basically the floor for a Democrat). Comstock would have been the favorite in a Clinton midterm the same way Heidi Heitkamp is favored to win this year just because Trump is president.

[libertpaulian]

Comstock was always DOA and would have lost even in a Clinton midterm.

Uh, no.

Even if we assume that a district's/state's trend/partisan lean doesn’t matter in an off-year or midterm election, she was always on borrowed time and would have been wiped off the face of earth in the next presidential year. Candidate Quality™ only gets you so far in a district like this (or NOVA/VA in general). VA-10 is a district where Clinton would have remained fairly popular even if her approvals had dropped into the low 40s nationally (plausible, but basically the floor for a Democrat). Comstock would have been the favorite in a Clinton midterm the same way Heidi Heitkamp is favored to win this year just because Trump is president.

I'm making the assumption that the GOP would have learned its lesson and ditched Trumpism due to Clinton's winning.

[psychprofessor]

Comstock was always DOA and would have lost even in a Clinton midterm.

Uh, no.

Even if we assume that a district's/state's trend/partisan lean doesn’t matter in an off-year or midterm election, she was always on borrowed time and would have been wiped off the face of earth in the next presidential year. Candidate Quality™ only gets you so far in a district like this (or NOVA/VA in general). VA-10 is a district where Clinton would have remained fairly popular even if her approvals had dropped into the low 40s nationally (plausible, but basically the floor for a Democrat). Comstock would have been the favorite in a Clinton midterm the same way Heidi Heitkamp is favored to win this year just because Trump is president.

In a Clinton midterm you could imagine that Comstock would not have had a formidable opponent with herculean fundraising - the R base would be more motivated and the D's would be on defense trying to hold districts they barely won in 2016 - such as NJ's 5th with Gottheimer.

[libertpaulian]

Comstock was always DOA and would have lost even in a Clinton midterm.

Uh, no.

Even if we assume that a district's/state's trend/partisan lean doesn’t matter in an off-year or midterm election, she was always on borrowed time and would have been wiped off the face of earth in the next presidential year. Candidate Quality™ only gets you so far in a district like this (or NOVA/VA in general). VA-10 is a district where Clinton would have remained fairly popular even if her approvals had dropped into the low 40s nationally (plausible, but basically the floor for a Democrat). Comstock would have been the favorite in a Clinton midterm the same way Heidi Heitkamp is favored to win this year just because Trump is president.

In a Clinton midterm you could imagine that Comstock would not have had a formidable opponent with herculean fundraising - the R base would be more motivated and the D's would be on defense trying to hold districts they barely won in 2016 - such as NJ's 5th with Gottheimer.

This too.

In a Clinton midterm, you wouldn't have top-notch recruits like Aftab, Davis, Davids, Wexton, Abrams, Gillum, Smith, Allred, Finkenauer, Sutton, Campa-Najar, Porter, Whitmer, etc. running for the Dems.  The GOP would be the ones touting rising stars of similar caliber, and the Dems would be desperately trying to stave off the GOP's reaching 60 Senate seats and over 250 House seats, let alone even thinking of taking back either chamber.  The GOP would also be looking at reaching 40+ governorships.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

We can afford to lose Comstock and Fitzpatrick. I maintain that the GCB can very well be close to D+low-single-digits on election day. Reuters/Ipsos had it at D+11, now at D+7. Tick tock.

Didn't you have the CGB tied yesterday, and now at low single digits? That's a pretty impressive upward trend for the Dems. Tick tock.

maybe R+lowsingledigits is more realistic.

Also @Brittain32: I'm not going away lol

[GeorgiaModerate]

USA Today/Suffolk, Oct. 18-22, 1000 LV (change from August)

D: 51 (+1)
R: 43 (+4)

[Person Man]

USA Today/Suffolk, Oct. 18-22, 1000 LV (change from August)

D: 51 (+1)
R: 43 (+4)

I can see it being like 52-44.

[KingSweden]

USA Today/Suffolk, Oct. 18-22, 1000 LV (change from August)

D: 51 (+1)
R: 43 (+4)

Consistent with the averages

[Brittain33]

USA Today/Suffolk, Oct. 18-22, 1000 LV (change from August)

D: 51 (+1)
R: 43 (+4)

Consistent with the averages

Yep, makes sense with Republicans coming home and turning out but still getting shellacked by Dems and indys.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1055453432360955904

https://twitter.com/cam_joseph/status/1055453434286166016

[MT Treasurer]

I’m getting NC-SEN 2014 vibes from NV-SEN. I remember not buying the polls showing Hagan with a clear lead and predicting that the state's lean would carry Tillis despite his weak campaign.

[Yellowhammer]

Comstock was always DOA and would have lost even in a Clinton midterm.

Uh, no.

Even if we assume that a district's/state's trend/partisan lean doesn’t matter in an off-year or midterm election, she was always on borrowed time and would have been wiped off the face of earth in the next presidential year. Candidate Quality™ only gets you so far in a district like this (or NOVA/VA in general). VA-10 is a district where Clinton would have remained fairly popular even if her approvals had dropped into the low 40s nationally (plausible, but basically the floor for a Democrat). Comstock would have been the favorite in a Clinton midterm the same way Heidi Heitkamp is favored to win this year just because Trump is president.

There's a pretty big difference between running as a dem in a state with an R +17 pvi and running as a republican in a D +1 district. Comstock could've definitely survived a Clinton midterm, but you're correct: her eventual loss would be inevitable. She would probably go down in 2020, and if not, redistricting would surely get her.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1055474131758706689

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1055474131758706689

Based on early voting across the country so far, I think it's time to start ignoring all "low turnout" models.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1055474131758706689

Another incumbent sitting in the mid-40's with only a week and a half to go.

MacArthur's favorables are not great at only +1. He's at -13 with women and -1 with seniors. Kim's numbers are better at +10. He's at +3 with men only down -2 with 50-64, his worst age group.

Trumps approvals are even 49-49, but the strongly dissaprove outwiegh's the strongly approve 42-35. Undecideds approve of Trump 49-48, but again the stronly dissaprove is larger at 29-23.

Democrats lead the generic ballot 43-40.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Comstock was always DOA and would have lost even in a Clinton midterm.

Uh, no.

Even if we assume that a district's/state's trend/partisan lean doesn’t matter in an off-year or midterm election, she was always on borrowed time and would have been wiped off the face of earth in the next presidential year. Candidate Quality™ only gets you so far in a district like this (or NOVA/VA in general). VA-10 is a district where Clinton would have remained fairly popular even if her approvals had dropped into the low 40s nationally (plausible, but basically the floor for a Democrat). Comstock would have been the favorite in a Clinton midterm the same way Heidi Heitkamp is favored to win this year just because Trump is president.

There's a pretty big difference between running as a dem in a state with an R +17 pvi and running as a republican in a D +1 district. Comstock could've definitely survived a Clinton midterm, but you're correct: her eventual loss would be inevitable. She would probably go down in 2020, and if not, redistricting would surely get her.

Wow, I didn't realize VA-10 was only D+1 (never really looked closely at it, I guess, or didn't think about it when I did).