OH NBC/Marist: Brown +13
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  OH NBC/Marist: Brown +13
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Author Topic: OH NBC/Marist: Brown +13  (Read 2215 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: September 26, 2018, 06:38:34 AM »

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/nbc-news-poll-ohio-gubernatorial-race-tied-brown-leads-big-n913081

Brown 52
Renacci 39
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Skye
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« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2018, 07:37:00 AM »

RIP Renacci.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2018, 08:01:41 AM »

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2018, 08:41:31 AM »

More like RIP "Lean R Ohio" if this is even close to accurate.
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« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2018, 10:41:30 AM »

Pretty close to moving this to Safe D, at this point. A massive polling error like we had in 2016 would still mean a mid-high single digit Brown win.

More like RIP "Lean R Ohio" if this is even close to accurate.

For this year, sure, but 2020 is a long way off.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2018, 10:42:47 AM »

Strong Lean D.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2018, 10:55:25 AM »

More like RIP "Lean R Ohio" if this is even close to accurate.

For this year, sure, but 2020 is a long way off.

OH is probably a Toss-up in 2020, maybe even Lean D with someone like Sanders or Brown.
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« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2018, 11:37:20 AM »

More like RIP "Lean R Ohio" if this is even close to accurate.

For this year, sure, but 2020 is a long way off.

OH is probably a Toss-up in 2020, maybe even Lean D with someone like Sanders or Brown.

I don't know, Ohio is probably the state that I'm the most pessimistic about in the Midwest. While Brown winning by double digits would definitely be evidence against the idea that Ohio is a red state now, I think it's still easily the most likely Obama/Trump state to hold for Trump. Likely R definitely was/is a stretch, but I'm not confident that Democrats will be able to replicate Brown's success so easily here again in 2020.
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Vosem
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« Reply #8 on: September 26, 2018, 12:09:15 PM »

Brown is a terrifically good candidate and Renacci is a terrifically bad one, but if Democrats fail to take the Governor's race here, then Ohio's position in the national environment from 2016 (11 points to the right of the country, basically) will be confirmed. Saying that Ohio likes Democrats because of Brown is like saying the same of West Virginia because of Heitkamp.

That said, the Governor's race is still pretty high-undecided, especially for this late in Ohio; Cordray could comfortably win by 5 or so, in which case Ohio really is still a Tilts R state. But if DeWine wins -- and he's leading now -- then this is going to start turning into fool's gold for Democrats.
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2018, 12:13:39 PM »

Brown is a terrifically good candidate and Renacci is a terrifically bad one, but if Democrats fail to take the Governor's race here, then Ohio's position in the national environment from 2016 (11 points to the right of the country, basically) will be confirmed. Saying that Ohio likes Democrats because of Brown is like saying the same of West Virginia because of Heitkamp.

That said, the Governor's race is still pretty high-undecided, especially for this late in Ohio; Cordray could comfortably win by 5 or so, in which case Ohio really is still a Tilts R state. But if DeWine wins -- and he's leading now -- then this is going to start turning into fool's gold for Democrats.

I don't know, what really matters is the margin by which Cordray either wins or loses by. For instance, how is DeWine winning by 1 so fundamentally different than Cordray winning by 1? In analyzing Ohio's partisan lean, there is really no difference.
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Vosem
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« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2018, 12:42:54 PM »

Brown is a terrifically good candidate and Renacci is a terrifically bad one, but if Democrats fail to take the Governor's race here, then Ohio's position in the national environment from 2016 (11 points to the right of the country, basically) will be confirmed. Saying that Ohio likes Democrats because of Brown is like saying the same of West Virginia because of Heitkamp.

That said, the Governor's race is still pretty high-undecided, especially for this late in Ohio; Cordray could comfortably win by 5 or so, in which case Ohio really is still a Tilts R state. But if DeWine wins -- and he's leading now -- then this is going to start turning into fool's gold for Democrats.

I don't know, what really matters is the margin by which Cordray either wins or loses by. For instance, how is DeWine winning by 1 so fundamentally different than Cordray winning by 1? In analyzing Ohio's partisan lean, there is really no difference.

Well, it also depends on the result in relation to national numbers; DeWine v. Cordray is very much being seen a Generic Establishment R v. Generic Establishment D election in Ohio. In 2016, Trump ran 10 points ahead of his national numbers in Ohio. If the GCB is D+9 (like 538 currently has it) but DeWine wins by 1 (which is the average of current polling), then Ohio's basically cemented itself as 10 points to the right of the country, which is Leans R at least. (Even if Cordray is "actually" up 1 right now, that's still 8 points to the right, which is Leans R).

But the race is also pretty high-undecided; Ohio saw large swings in many parts of the state in 2016, much of the party leadership is close to openly anti-Trump (Kasich likes talking about it; Portman avoids the topic but is also obviously not a fan of the President's); meanwhile much of the Democratic Party leadership is based in areas like Lorain (for Sherrod Brown) or Youngstown (for Tim Ryan) which swung hard toward Trump. Lots of voters in the state aren't sure if they prefer Generic Establishment R or Generic Establishment D; undecideds remain high. If they break toward Cordray and he ends up winning by 5 or something, especially if the GCB is a bit too favorable to Democrats at the height of the Kavanaugh fracas and they only win by like 7, then Ohio is basically still a Tossup/barely Tilts R.

Obviously there's not a lot of difference between DeWine+1 and Cordray+1 practically, though I think the former would discourage national Democrats from continuing to try to play in the state, while the latter would encourage them to do so.
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2018, 12:55:05 PM »

Yes, in that sense, it's probably better to say that any Cordray result that is substantially less than the national House PV is probably bad for Democrats long-term*. In this sense, it doesn't really matter if Cordray wins or loses, but rather how much he wins by, if he wins at all.

OTOH, gubernatorial races don't always track the national environment and can defy state partisan lean in sometimes absurd ways (re: Baker/Hogan), so it's risky to try and extrapolate the results from this.


* I don't know enough about Ohio to say confidently one way or the other whether it's actually moving away from Democrats in any big way
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Xeuma
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2018, 11:21:45 PM »
« Edited: September 26, 2018, 11:26:33 PM by Trajan »

Ohio has had solid R majorities in its legislatures since the 80s (40 years?). In that time, there have been two Democratic governors, one being Ted Strickland who defeated incumbent Bob Taft and his 5% approval rating (and that was also 2006). The last time Democrats held a trifecta there was 1982-1984. Ohio is a Solid R state which sometimes votes Democrats as president.

I'm not at all optimistic on Cordray's chances. Kasich is adored in Ohio. Likely R.

EDIT: I'm not talking about Brown lol, he's safe. I'm replying to the people talking about Cordray.
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Badger
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« Reply #13 on: September 27, 2018, 09:06:12 AM »

Ohio has had solid R majorities in its legislatures since the 80s (40 years?). In that time, there have been two Democratic governors, one being Ted Strickland who defeated incumbent Bob Taft and his 5% approval rating (and that was also 2006). The last time Democrats held a trifecta there was 1982-1984. Ohio is a Solid R state which sometimes votes Democrats as president.

I'm not at all optimistic on Cordray's chances. Kasich is adored in Ohio. Likely R.

EDIT: I'm not talking about Brown lol, he's safe. I'm replying to the people talking about Cordray.

That is an accurate on several grounds. First and foremost you are ignoring John Lennon and Sherrod Brown winning Statewide races repeatedly over the course of decades. Secondly, the Ohio Democratic party's biggest weaknesses in group tutorial elections has largely been either running in Republican wave years and / or a bad slate of Statewide candidates. Neither is the case this year. Thirdly, I have no idea where you get the idea that Dwayne is beloved in Ohio. Don't forget this is the guy who lost his Senate reelection, albeit in a democratic may go wave here, buy a dozen points to Sherrod Brown in 2006, and required a republican tsunami wave a year to defeat corduroys reelection by barely 1%. It would be far more accurate to say he is tolerated rather than beloved.
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