Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Xing]

If Walker winning means Trump is guaranteed to win Wisconsin in 2020, ask President Hillary Clinton about her margin of victory in Pennsylvania.

No, but the fact that Democrats haven’t put this race away in what seems to be a massive Democratic wave year even bigger than 2006 is certainly interesting, especially given how well they are doing in IA/OH/WI/MI/PA/FL.

They're doing slightly worse here than in FL, better than in OH, and we really don't have much polling to conclude anything with confidence about IA. Walker could survive, but I'll be stunned if Democrats win IA and OH at the same time.

[Gass3268]

With the new Marquette Poll showing a tie, I thought I'd make a map of what a tied Wisconsin race could look like. The below map shows the average of the 2014 Secretary of State race and the 2014 State Treasurer race. Averaged together you get a 47.54%-47.38% race that the Republicans win by 3,657 race. The giant caveat here obviously is this is pre-Trump, as of now I am guessing that some of the Democratic counties (Adams) might go Republican, some of those light blue Republican counties in the North might have a stronger shade of blue, and that the Republican margins in the Southeast might not be as dark. Overall, I think this is still a good representation of what a tie could look like.

     

[Hammy]

Okay, so this isn't quite as alarming as it sounded to me. Good.

The solution to this would be to have a national voter registry that keeps track when you move to a different state, but of course Americans don't want that because something something BIG GUVMENT!!

To follow up on this:

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1058034844574367744

That's a big number, but it only turns out to be a 4% reduction in 4 years. Not horrendous, especially considering you can register at the polls in Wisconsin.

But how much of that decline occurred from 2015-16?

[Suburbia]

Will the WOW counties turn out as heavily for Walker like they did 4 years ago?

[Dr. Arch]

Will the WOW counties turn out as heavily for Walker like they did 4 years ago?

Maybe not as heavily, but still quite a bit. The thing is Dane and MKE are also fired up (beyond 2016 levels even), and Western WI won't go for Walker in the same way this time around.

[Gass3268]

Okay, so this isn't quite as alarming as it sounded to me. Good.

The solution to this would be to have a national voter registry that keeps track when you move to a different state, but of course Americans don't want that because something something BIG GUVMENT!!

To follow up on this:

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1058034844574367744

That's a big number, but it only turns out to be a 4% reduction in 4 years. Not horrendous, especially considering you can register at the polls in Wisconsin.

But how much of that decline occurred from 2015-16?

With the usual same day registration bump, they should be back close to the post-2014 level of registered voters.



Source

[Koharu]

Will the WOW counties turn out as heavily for Walker like they did 4 years ago?

Maybe not as heavily, but still quite a bit. The thing is Dane and MKE are also fired up (beyond 2016 levels even), and Western WI won't go for Walker in the same way this time around.

Yep.

Madison is preparing for a 75% turnout. Early voting has been crazy.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Why does Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland counties always vote Democratic?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Why does Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland counties always vote Democratic?

The same reason Vermont does. Heavy on tourism. The same reason as Cook County, MN. These are the sites of amazing Lake Superior resorts. 

[Gass3268]

Why does Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland counties always vote Democratic?

A large % of the people that settled in this region where Finns and they settled fairly late in the settlement history of Wisconsin. I think many were leftwingers that feld Imperial Russia and they brought their politcs with them and passed them down to their childern. Iron County, which is the most Finnish, has lost a lot of this. However the other three counties have had other factors (shipping, industry, tourism, state university in Superior, etc.) that have helped keep those numbers stable.

[Wiz in Wis]

New Governor and Senate numbers out today from Emerson. 604 LV poll of online/landlines

Evers 51
Walker 46

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-polls-tight-governor-races-georgia-wisconsin-iowa-democrats-look-pick-two-house-seats-iowa#.W9xw02hKiUk

Interestingly, the gap between Baldwin and Evers is just 2 pts, same with Walker and Vukmir

Baldwin 53
Vukmir 44

[Gass3268]

This could maybe be a late gamechanger:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1058384129367121921

[Wiz in Wis]

This could maybe be a late gamechanger:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1058384129367121921

That story is gross.... Yikes. Yeah, a solid case for a 'November' surprise.

[Gass3268]

This could maybe be a late gamechanger:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1058384129367121921

That story is gross.... Yikes. Yeah, a solid case for a 'November' surprise.

I'll hear out Walker's side of the story, but this seems much worse than what they were accusing Evers of doing (when he was just following the laws and regulations required).

[Wiz in Wis]

This could maybe be a late gamechanger:

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1058384129367121921

That story is gross.... Yikes. Yeah, a solid case for a 'November' surprise.

I'll hear out Walker's side of the story, but this seems much worse than what they were accusing Evers of doing (when he was just following the laws and regulations required).

His side of the story, thus far, has been "EVERS IS BAD" which makes me think he's got nothing. I mean, it's a big administration, but if you put your main critique of your opponent to be on licensing, you're gonna be held accountable for the same.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Is the Wisconsin 6th Congressional District really going to be competitive this years? Since when?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/wisconsin/6/#deluxe

http://www.wuwm.com/post/analysis-why-wisconsins-6th-congressional-race-so-competitive#stream/0

My guess is Ozaukee County is trending D perhaps?

[Gass3268]

Is the Wisconsin 6th Congressional District really going to be competitive this years? Since when?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/wisconsin/6/#deluxe

http://www.wuwm.com/post/analysis-why-wisconsins-6th-congressional-race-so-competitive#stream/0

My guess is Ozaukee County is trending D perhaps?

I think it's a mix of that plus you have some potential Democratic strength in Columbia County and Winnebago County. The key will be along the lakeshore. Can Kohl do well enough in Sheboygan County and probably win Manitowoc County to make up for Fond du Lac and Green Lake Counties.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Is the Wisconsin 6th Congressional District really going to be competitive this years? Since when?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/wisconsin/6/#deluxe

http://www.wuwm.com/post/analysis-why-wisconsins-6th-congressional-race-so-competitive#stream/0

My guess is Ozaukee County is trending D perhaps?

One can only hope. This is one of the oldest GOP areas in the nation.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Is the Wisconsin 6th Congressional District really going to be competitive this years? Since when?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/wisconsin/6/#deluxe

http://www.wuwm.com/post/analysis-why-wisconsins-6th-congressional-race-so-competitive#stream/0

My guess is Ozaukee County is trending D perhaps?

One can only hope. This is one of the oldest GOP areas in the nation.

*Sigh* Once again, WOW swung slightly towards Hillary in the last election, and polling indicates GOP support waning in that area. I can't wait until you're proven wrong on Tuesday, even if Walker wins.

[SCNCmod]

I haven't really kept up with the Wisc Gov race (b/c early I assumed Walker was going to lose- but seems like things have changed in the race).  Is there a general consensus by those in Wisc regarding who will likely win?

[Gass3268]

I haven't really kept up with the Wisc Gov race (b/c early I assumed Walker was going to lose- but seems like things have changed in the race).  Is there a general consensus by those in Wisc regarding who will likely win?

I really don't think there is a general consensus. Maybe slight Evers because Walker hasn't lead in a non-Marquette poll.

My head says Evers, but my gut says Walker.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I haven't really kept up with the Wisc Gov race (b/c early I assumed Walker was going to lose- but seems like things have changed in the race).  Is there a general consensus by those in Wisc regarding who will likely win?

There are some hacks that think Evers has the edge, but all signs point to this being a 2012/2014 redux. This is more than just polls, it's the pattern seen time and time again in this state. Ask Senator Feingold about his thoughts on that.

If Walker does lose, I can't wait to see your reaction. You really are desperate, aren't you?

[Scottholes 2.0]

I'm guessing there won't be another WI poll released? I'm asking because Emerson isn't the greatest and that was their last poll.

[Badger]

Is the Wisconsin 6th Congressional District really going to be competitive this years? Since when?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/wisconsin/6/#deluxe

http://www.wuwm.com/post/analysis-why-wisconsins-6th-congressional-race-so-competitive#stream/0

My guess is Ozaukee County is trending D perhaps?

Good. Grothman is Pond scum. And crazy pond-scum at that.

[Gass3268]

Not shocking that the Republicans are ending in Waukesha and Democrats in Madison.

https://twitter.com/RoseSchmidtTV/status/1059509326585520128