Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The massive improvement in WOW compared to Trump's numbers? Wow, Walker knew how to bring the Romney-Clinton's home...

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Only 4 precincts left in MKE County (23 left in Dane) and Walker is closing in...

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Walker officially in the lead, with tons in Sheboygan, Polk, and Manitowoc left to go...

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

NBC using Edison is a little bit further than NYT. They have Evers up .3% with  ~6,000 margin.

Sheboygan mostly in now...25% still out in  GOP-heavy Polk,  about half out in GOP-heavy Manitowoc, barely anything in Calumet. Yeah, it's clear now how this race will go...

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Need those votes, 91%, Walker up 2,759.

This will come down to whether or not the MKE "missing votes" outweigh what's left of Manitowoc/Calumet...

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

93%, Walker lead at 1,004.

Those 45k votes from MKE better be worth it.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Still nothing from Green Bay or La Crosse. Polk nearly done and Manitowoc starting to fill up.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Stumbling upon 50,000 additional votes is Chicago-esque

2 precincts out in Waukesha...capable of the same type of shenanigans.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

This is prolly the only huge thing that matters left this cycle. My teeth are chattering...

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Stumbling upon 50,000 additional votes is Chicago-esque

2 precincts out in Waukesha...capable of the same type of shenanigans.

If it’s New Berlin the entire city has less people than the votes outstanding in Milwaukee itself FYI.

Never underestimate the power of Waukesha officials to make things "happen"

That's why I wish Dane held on until tomorrow...

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

96%, Evers up 301.

It ain't over till Waukesha and Calumet are fully in. I just still have that doubt.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Marquette is truly the gold standard once again. Shove it, haters! Congrats Gov. Evers.

Right?...and people had the nerve to knock me for praising Marquette.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

So what’s left, the big Milwaukee votes, two precincts in New Berlin, City of LaCrosse and some rural Calumet?

About 9 precincts in Manitowoc, 7 left in Adams...

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Not sure what reported but 98% in and Evers back on top by 122 votes.

La Crosse...but significant GOP areas (Calumet, Manitowoc, and Price Counties, New Berlin) still out...

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Evers gained ~31,000 in Milwaukee County

https://twitter.com/SykesCharlie/status/1060062097860648960

Still waiting on New Berlin. I'm nervous. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Rebecca Kleefisch said there may be a recount.

Yep, and with Calumet/Manitowoc/New Berlin still out...there are plenty of chances for the Dems to fall below 1%.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Rebecca Kleefisch said there may be a recount.

Yep, and with Calumet/Manitowoc/New Berlin still out...there are plenty of chances for the Dems to fall below 1%.

Just admit you’re on suicide watch. Thoughts and prayers.

I'm just waiting for all the votes to come in to determine whether a recount is possible. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It's crazy that Evers has essentially won by combining Feingold's and Clinton's map.

Those Obama-Trump-Evers Driftless swings were things I never thought possible even last week. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It's crazy that Evers has essentially won by combining Feingold's and Clinton's map.

Those Obama-Trump-Evers Driftless swings were things I never thought possible even last week. 

implying you think

I knew Walker was winning back all the Clinton-Romney's in WOW...so I was right in that prediction. Give me some credit. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Guys, I wouldn't call this official just yet. Scott Walker is demanding a recount, and he might just slither his way through this.

He can't actually request this until next week at the earliest, after all counties certify the results. If it's more than a 1% margin, Walker is SOL.

I believe he can still request it, he would just have to pay for it out of his own (koch bros) pockets.

Ugh! I'm trying not to be a pessimist, but the WI GOP stole the 2011 Supreme Court Election after finding missing ballots or something. If Koch money gets involved in a recount, we should be a little cautious.

Otherwise, welcome, Governor Tony Evers!

Yeah, there is some worry about that....but just breathe and celebrate for now. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Can someone explain why St. Croix (practically Hudson and other cities)  and the surrounding counties (Dunn/Polk/etc.) swung and trended D from 2014? I've been seeing that in the specials, too.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel is making it pretty clear that unless the margin falls below 1%, Walker can't ask for a recount.

Hope that's true. What we win if it can't happen:

1. The assault on schools/healthcare stops
2. Regional transit authorities might be able to be made legal
3. The assault on Milwaukee/the new streetcar system
4. The continued bonding and not paying of road interest should be stopped. Republicans might be willing to get a small gas tax increase since they were not happy with Walker on his road plan.

Court drawn maps in 2021.

Who controls the courts, though? 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It'll be key to watch how Republicans in the legislature behave. They could try to remove the Governor from the redistricting process, but voters will have to approve it. What I will say is that if they wanted to do that, it basically costs nothing. But the big failure of the North Carolina GOP's amendment schemes this cycle might help instill a sense of futility in the WIGOP. Although walking away from this election with little-to-no erosion in their legislative ranks might embolden them. I dunno.

Also there is no guarantee the WIGOP has a state Supreme Court majority by the time the maps need to be redrawn. I think Democrats have some opportunities, and at worst, the GOP will only have a small majority on the bench.

Edit: Actually, seems like Republicans will likely have a bare majority for redistricting, but that hardly means the GOP will just gerrymander through them instead, if it falls to the judges.

Couple things: 1) There is not enough time for Repubilcans to get a Consitutional Amendment on the ballot in time before 2021. It has to pass in two consecutive terms. That is unless they call a special session before January. 2) If there is a deadlock regarding redistricting, the federal courts will get the authority to drawn the lines, not the state courts. Look at Virgina for example.

Are you forgetting who controls the federal courts? 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Virginia: You were right

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1060301509584404480?s=21

This is gonna go about as well as it did in NC.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Has anyone heard about this???

http://www.dailyjournal.net/2018/11/08/wi-election-2018-14th-assembly/

It' means that a Democrat actually represents a sliver of Waukesha County. Not sure the last time that happened in the state legislature.

The suburban erosion is going to turn WI really ugly for Republicans. Western WI doesn't show any notable signs of movement, while Dane and MKE keep growing. If Republicans lose a significant share of their WOW support, which is what keeps them afloat and competitive, I don't see them doing well in the future.

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

Here we go, looks like there was some correlation between population growth and the swing in the Governor's race:

Is there a list of the counties that were above or below that that line? Hard to tell in that graph. A list of residuals would be good.