Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

County   Residual
ADAMS   -5.37%
ASHLAND   -2.52%
BARRON   0.21%
BAYFIELD   -5.18%
BROWN   1.96%
BUFFALO   -0.44%
BURNETT   -7.47%
CALUMET   5.04%
CHIPPEWA   -3.89%
CLARK   -0.28%
COLUMBIA   1.18%
CRAWFORD   -2.84%
DANE   -0.62%
DODGE   2.67%
DOOR   5.60%
DOUGLAS   -2.59%
DUNN   0.63%
EAU CLAIRE   3.26%
FLORENCE   -4.15%
FOND DU LAC   0.88%
FOREST   -3.94%
GRANT   -1.70%
GREEN   5.17%
GREEN LAKE   2.14%
IOWA   5.61%
IRON   8.47%
JACKSON   -4.99%
JEFFERSON   3.74%
JUNEAU   -7.64%
KENOSHA   3.14%
KEWAUNEE   0.48%
LA CROSSE   3.70%
LAFAYETTE   -0.79%
LANGLADE   1.03%
LINCOLN   -3.02%
MANITOWOC   3.66%
MARATHON   -0.20%
MARINETTE   -2.98%
MARQUETTE   -2.86%
MENOMINEE   -8.47%
MILWAUKEE   5.97%
MONROE   -5.15%
OCONTO   -4.85%
ONEIDA   -1.83%
OUTAGAMIE   2.29%
OZAUKEE   9.83%
PEPIN   2.31%
PIERCE   0.43%
POLK   -1.95%
PORTAGE   1.32%
PRICE   -2.39%
RACINE   1.94%
RICHLAND   7.45%
ROCK   2.78%
RUSK   -3.77%
SAUK   0.43%
SAWYER   -7.86%
SHAWANO   0.05%
SHEBOYGAN   7.74%
ST. CROIX   5.08%
TAYLOR   -1.67%
TREMPEALEAU   -8.16%
VERNON   -4.90%
VILAS   -5.50%
WALWORTH   5.25%
WASHBURN   -3.43%
WASHINGTON   2.59%
WAUKESHA   7.54%
WAUPACA   1.90%
WAUSHARA   -4.00%
WINNEBAGO   3.58%
WOOD   0.35%

I'm gonna put this on Excel later on and sort by regions. This data is juicy. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Here is the differences in how much better Baldwin did than Evers in each county:

FOREST   18.75%
CLARK   18.54%
TAYLOR   17.69%
BUFFALO   17.54%
CRAWFORD   16.98%
TREMPEALEAU   16.59%
LANGLADE   16.41%
MANITOWOC   15.70%
PRICE   15.44%
LINCOLN   15.40%
MARATHON   14.86%
JACKSON   14.67%
RUSK   14.44%
MARINETTE   14.33%
KEWAUNEE   14.20%
DOOR   13.76%
CALUMET   13.62%
VERNON   13.52%
CHIPPEWA   13.51%
LAFAYETTE   13.48%
GREEN LAKE   13.38%
ONEIDA   13.35%
WOOD   13.06%
SHAWANO   12.93%
OCONTO   12.79%
MONROE   12.36%
WAUSHARA   12.18%
IRON   12.15%
DODGE   11.75%
SHEBOYGAN   11.64%
VILAS   11.52%
WASHINGTON   11.51%
PEPIN   11.49%
BURNETT   11.44%
BROWN   11.33%
WALWORTH   11.27%
OUTAGAMIE   11.18%
FOND DU LAC   11.04%
OZAUKEE   11.01%
WAUPACA   10.91%
ADAMS   10.81%
MARQUETTE   10.77%
LA CROSSE   10.57%
PORTAGE   10.44%
SAWYER   10.31%
WINNEBAGO   10.13%
WAUKESHA   10.03%
EAU CLAIRE   9.80%
RICHLAND   9.75%
JUNEAU   9.73%
RACINE   9.73%
JEFFERSON   9.69%
GRANT   9.53%
IOWA   9.38%
DUNN   9.28%
KENOSHA   9.12%
BARRON   9.09%
GREEN   8.94%
POLK   8.86%
PIERCE   8.68%
ASHLAND   8.43%
WASHBURN   8.02%
MILWAUKEE   7.90%
ST. CROIX   7.73%
SAUK   7.24%
BAYFIELD   7.07%
ROCK   6.74%
FLORENCE   6.72%
COLUMBIA   6.69%
DOUGLAS   5.42%
MENOMINEE   4.66%
DANE   4.09%

Eyeballing that list, looks like Baldwin had a killing up North. Incumbent effect?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

In Vos's words "no money for empty buses, streetcars or mass transit" "no more money for education, we have spent enough". Is willing to spend on roads/bridges though but nothing else.

This is why I despise the Wisconsin GOP right there. Seriously? No investments in education? After they screwed over teachers?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

In Vos's words "no money for empty buses, streetcars or mass transit" "no more money for education, we have spent enough". Is willing to spend on roads/bridges though but nothing else.

This is why I despise the Wisconsin GOP right there. Seriously? No investments in education? After they screwed over teachers?

Oh, but "we invested more than any governor ever last year", ignoring how much they gutted everything in the 7 years before that. So to spend beyond it would be "reckless and require massive tax increases that will not happen".

Gov. Evers better be well-acquainted with the veto pen, because I don't trust these fools to have the interests of the state in mind or negotiate in good faith.   

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Apparently Evers called former moderate Republican governor Tommy Thompson to counsel him. I say, good move! https://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/news/2018/11/14/governor-elect-evers-seeks-bipartisan-counsel-from.html

So, he's gonna govern like a Reaganite Republican. Yikes.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Do they think this will help them? They do realize that low turnout special/local elections have been favoring Democrats under Trump, right? And Wisconsin stands out in this regard.

I guess they think they would have a slightly better shot when it's not during the Democratic Presidential Primary. Pretty funny how they are for this even with the additional costs, but not for the special elections because they are too costly.

I also think going out of your way to try and "rig the system" is a good way to encourage your opponents to turn out and vote anyways.

Case in point: The scheduling of the Missouri Right-to-Work vote.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

In theory, and sometimes it does work out like that, but there are just as many examples if not more of election rigging that simply cannot be overcome. Ohio and North Carolina congressional elections, for instance. Even if we could overcome that wall of corruption, there is little chance it could maintained so long as the maps are the way they are.

Which is why redistricting in 2020 is so darn important. I hope the legislative maps will be better drawn for the next decade. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Off topic, but Dane is the only village in Dane County that voted for Walker.

Another fun fact apparent in this map... the UW voting wards are among the least Democratic in the city, because UW students tend to be MORE CONSERVATIVE than Madison residents in general.

Dane County as a whole just seems like one huge progressive paradise. I don't think anywhere else in the Midwest comes close, with perhaps Washtenaw County being a possible candidate.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Why not have county electoral colleges as well, and congressional district electoral colleges! People don't matter, acres matter! Seriously, how can anyone defend Republicans bashing (not just writing off, but bashing) huge swaths of Americans (California/New York, the large cities/urban areas of a state like Madison/Milwaukee), and then turning around and saying that the Democrats are the smug elitists who don't care about Americas? Obviously, a "state electoral college" would never become law, but the fact that this is what they're seriously trying to push is comically corrupt, and further evidence that the last thing these Republicans care about is the "will of the people."

Perhaps, this will force Dems to care more about than just urbanites.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Just came across this visualization of the gerrymander of the WI Assembly. Stunningly effective.

https://twitter.com/bcburden/status/1069773072587206656

Yep, and it's gonna get worse next cycle as the Milwaukee portion of the delegation would happily Russ Carnahan the rest of the caucus to get theirs, even if the Dems as a whole continue to get decimated.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Just came across this visualization of the gerrymander of the WI Assembly. Stunningly effective.

https://twitter.com/bcburden/status/1069773072587206656

Yep, and it's gonna get worse next cycle as the Milwaukee portion of the delegation would happily Russ Carnahan the rest of the caucus to get theirs, even if the Dems as a whole continue to get decimated.

No they aren't. If anything a fair map would greatly increase the power and representation of Milwaukee County by killing the baconmanders that expend out into Ozaukee and Waukesha.

never underestimate democrats willingless to kill other dems.
As Hofoid said Carnahan was a legit problem and Lacy Clay and Cleaver really deserve more sh**t for doing that backstab .

Yep, this is exactly why the urban strategy will kill Dems downballot (especially in legislative races).

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Governor's Race By Assembly District




*** mod note: fixed image size

Pitiful performance. Dems need to broaden their appeal if they want to have any relevance on the legislative level. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Governor's Race By Assembly District




*** mod note: fixed image size

Pitiful performance. Dems need to broaden their appeal if they want to have any relevance on the legislative level. 

Democrats won 53% of the legislative vote, and Republicans still won 66% of the seats thanks to the gerrymander.

This state is currupt as hell.

A fair map would involve baconmandering Madison and Milawaukee. It's better to just reach out to the non-urban areas.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

He wants to be Governor and he'll do all he can to hurt the two biggest entities in the state (Milwaukee and Madison) while riling up the base who thinks that if you go into either city you'll get mugged, raped and shot. Sadly it's a very common belief out in the country.

Prolly Madison is safe, but Milwaukee? Might as well be Little Chicago. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Vos and Fitzgerald are blaming Evers...

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1090663420616151041

Yeah, Dems better hope DJT wins re-election...otherwise Evers is 100% a one-termer (up from a current 80%). Mark my words.  

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Spring primaries are today in WI, including a Madison mayoral primary.  Turnout in Madison is on par with 2011 (when the Act 10 stuff was going on), double 2015.  This is without a Supreme Court primary.  https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/madison-primary-election-morning-voter-turnout-on-par-with-double/article_6b2c01a3-972b-5b6c-8b05-4e87380f3c23.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

Wisconsin Democrats are seriously lucky Dane County is elastic and has grown as much as it has. Its electorate would look like Ohio without it.

Conversely, Wisconsin Republicans are seriously lucky Dane County has grown and been as successful as it has been. Otherwise they wouldn't have a good boogey-man to wage an urban-rural culture war against.

I'd argue that "Little Chicago" Milwaukee is more of an albatross in this state.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Question for the masses - if the North Carolina judge's ruling regarding the invalidation of laws passed by an illegally gerrymandered legislature is upheld, could activists aggressively follow their lead and use a future progressive Wisconsin Supreme Court to essentially demolish most if not all of Walker's legacy, or does the state have provisions against this?

That would be amazing. Hope it happens.  RTW needs to go.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The GOP legislature knows that Evers is far left and is only being moderate to stay on their good side. However, declaring border security as a non-emergency is as partisan as it gets. The independents who voted for Evers will remember this come 2022. Declaring border security as a non-emergency is as partisan as it gets.

WI Dems should enjoy their one-term governor while they can. If Milwaukee continues to lose population, it'll get harder and harder for the D's to win statewide elections.

Are you, by any chance, Hofoid's sockpuppet?

LMAO at the thought of Evers being "far-left".  C'mon, I thought you knew me better than that. 

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Sigh.

https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/tony-evers-first-budget-sets-up-fight-with-republicans/article_6877ee2b-db9c-58bf-953f-d16f6a19bb12.html?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=wisconsin+state+journal&fbclid=IwAR2jAhECoUhKDOYbVCk-Nckia8rF0QmWzejBiN891_klZ31hKVKMr_p4VcA

It's not a trifecta; Stop acting like it's a new thing for a Governor to have a hostile Legislature.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Lame-duck bills were blocked and legislative powers were restored to Governor Evers yesterday. Now the Repubs are fighting back: https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/election-matters/wisconsin-republicans-ask-court-to-block-judge-s-lame-duck/article_c90c57cc-8e7c-5edf-a02d-dc112e9fe8f5.html

Considering the State Supreme Court is controlled by the GOP...we all know how this will end.