10 three-color 2020 maps: who can win, and who can't
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 22, 2024, 09:33:25 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  10 three-color 2020 maps: who can win, and who can't		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 10 three-color 2020 maps: who can win, and who can't  (Read 1380 times)
pops
katman46
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 770


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: 2.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 25, 2018, 07:06:19 PM »
Trump vs. Sanders



Trump vs. Biden



Trump vs. Merkley



Trump vs. Warren



Trump vs. Buttigieg



Trump vs. Hickenlooper



Trump vs. Steyer



Trump vs. Booker



Trump vs. Harris



Trump vs. Patrick
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 34,613
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2018, 07:15:07 PM »
Your maps seem way too pessimistic on most of the Democratic candidates. beyond that, the only one that I feel that I can give a different opinion about, this early on, is the Sanders map. I would agree with your map for his match-up against Trump, but would move Colorado, ME-AL, and Virginia to the Democratic column, and Iowa to tossup. I could see the latter going either way in an election between the two.
Logged
Jags
Rookie
**
Posts: 174


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2018, 07:19:22 PM »
The midwest isnt in play if a progressive is the nominee.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2018, 07:26:18 PM »
Trump vs Sanders:


Trump vs Biden


Trump vs Harris


Trump vs Gillibrand


Trump vs Bullock


Trump vs Booker


Trump vs Hickenlooper


Trump vs Sherrod Brown


Trump vs Clinton


Trump vs Bloomberg


Some of these are a bit unrealistic, but generally these would be how I expect these to go.
Logged
Grassroots
Grassr00ts
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,739
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: 2.09

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2018, 08:08:40 PM »
« Edited: September 26, 2018, 07:10:10 AM by Reform Revolution »
As depicted, the #populists Purple heart always win big, while weak elitists lose in landslides.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2018, 12:34:43 AM »
« Edited: September 26, 2018, 12:40:03 AM by IceSpear »
Quote from: Reform Revolution on September 25, 2018, 08:08:40 PM
As depicted, the populists always win big, while weak elitists lose in landslides.

#POPULISM Purple heart is so vital, right? Which is why #populist Purple heart hero Trump lost the PV by 2 points to elitist neoliberal coastal elitist Hillary Clinton.
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2018, 09:20:36 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on September 26, 2018, 12:34:43 AM
Quote from: Reform Revolution on September 25, 2018, 08:08:40 PM
As depicted, the populists always win big, while weak elitists lose in landslides.

#POPULISM Purple heart is so vital, right? Which is why #populist Purple heart hero Trump lost the PV by 2 points to elitist neoliberal coastal elitist Hillary Clinton.
Trump won the election despite having historically low favorables and being accused of sexual assault. Populism, along with his strong ground campaign, were the reasons why.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,929
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2018, 09:32:11 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on September 26, 2018, 12:34:43 AM
Quote from: Reform Revolution on September 25, 2018, 08:08:40 PM
As depicted, the populists always win big, while weak elitists lose in landslides.

#POPULISM Purple heart is so vital, right? Which is why #populist Purple heart hero Trump lost the PV by 2 points to elitist neoliberal coastal elitist Hillary Clinton.

It would take an incredibly-flawed Democratic nominee -- someone who could be painted into a corner as an extremist (McGovern) or someone who can't engage the public (Mondale) to lose to so severe a failure as President as Donald Trump. Just look at the approval polls for Trump.

Carter thought that Reagan would be easy to beat by characterizing him as an extremist. It did not win. Carter may have had other problems -- but Trump is beginning to seem like a political ogre.
Logged
CookieDamage
cookiedamage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,158


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2018, 12:09:29 AM »
Quote from: Dems for DeSantis on September 26, 2018, 09:20:36 AM
Quote from: IceSpear on September 26, 2018, 12:34:43 AM
Quote from: Reform Revolution on September 25, 2018, 08:08:40 PM
As depicted, the populists always win big, while weak elitists lose in landslides.

#POPULISM Purple heart is so vital, right? Which is why #populist Purple heart hero Trump lost the PV by 2 points to elitist neoliberal coastal elitist Hillary Clinton.
Trump won the election despite having historically low favorables and being accused of sexual assault. Populism, along with his strong ground campaign, were the reasons why.

He won the election because his opponent was also poorly received and mired in scandals, much like him. His campaign was barely populist and way more nativists, and he won despite it all, not because of it. What is this revisionism?

Also, Sherrod Brown isn't making Missouri competitive. Try again.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2018, 02:07:57 PM »
Quote from: cookiedamage on September 27, 2018, 12:09:29 AM
His campaign was barely populist and way more nativists

But Atlas told me you're automatically #populist Purple heart if you're "anti-establishment." Which is why my favorite #populists Purple heart are Donald Trump, Jon Tester, Marine Le Pen, and Sherrod Brown. Smiley
Logged
HillGoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,973
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.74, S: -8.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2018, 09:35:27 PM »
My idea on some of them-

Trump vs. Sanders


Trump vs. Biden


Trump vs. Harris


Trump vs. Booker


Trump vs. Bloomberg


Trump vs. Klobuchar
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,796
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 27, 2018, 09:56:28 PM »
Yikes, some people having Virginia as a toss up, or worse, in the R column.
Logged
yakutia
boatfullogoats
Rookie
**
Posts: 59
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 1.16, S: -2.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2018, 05:48:59 PM »
LOL you're a little optimistic about Buttigieg. His youth would be enough of a hinderance regardless.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2018, 08:43:31 PM »
All of these maps should be basically identical.
Logged
Karpatsky
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,545
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2018, 09:10:56 PM »
Quote from: Figueira on October 08, 2018, 08:43:31 PM
All of these maps should be basically identical.

Yeah, with a handful of exceptions most candidates won't make enough of a difference to swing the map this much. I know electoral maps are fun but the fact is the US environment is too polarized these days for big interesting swings.
Logged
Figueira
84285
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,173


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2018, 04:24:04 AM »
I mean it's possible that Buttigieg would win Wisconsin and Warren wouldn't, but there's no way of actually knowing that with any certainty.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.304 seconds with 13 queries.