President Harry Truman (D-MO) / Governor Adlai Stevenson (D-IL)
Governor Thomas Dewey (R-NY) / Senator Richard Nixon (R-CA) ✓
Governor Strom Thurmond (DX-SC) / Senator John Sparkman (DX-AL)
Texas was bound to swing to the Republicans in the 1950s due to the Presidential Republicanism of the Shivercrats, but Truman still narrowly carries some Outer South and Northern states. This is being generous to Truman IMO, partly because Dewey wouldn't have the unique appeal to veterans, independents, and Democrats that Eisenhower did, but mostly because I don't want to bother with another wall-of-text rant from seething Kentuckian Democrat users.
LOL, well, now you’re gonna get one anyway. I have no problem with people thinking Truman would have lost badly in 1952 given his unpopularity; I’m not sure why you think I would. But I also don’t think that map is generous to Truman. Let’s consider the reason (some) Deep South states revolted against him in 1948. It wasn’t because they especially hated Truman. And they sure as hell didn’t vote for Stevenson in 1952 because they particularly loved him. It was mainly because Thurmond was an option in protest against Truman’s Civil Rights support. After the failure of that move in 1948, there seemed to be little appetite in the South to try it again until 1968. (See 1960, when the Catholic and pro-Civil Rights JFK only lost Mississippi to the Dixiecrat.) I think if Truman were to run again, the South would have supported him this time, especially against Dewey rather than Ike. I think you oversell Dewey’s appeal in general. I’m skeptical he would have had the crossover support needed to even win Texas; don’t know if the Shivercrats would have backed him. Also not sure why Stevenson would be the VP here; if it’s not Barkley again, Truman probably does go with a Southerner like Sparkman in an attempt to ensure he locks the South down.
Ultimately, I’m thinking it’s basically your map except Thurmond doesn’t run and Truman wins all the states he does, plus perhaps TX, TN, OK, and VA. Against Ike, however, he does much worse and loses those at least most likely. Probably also LA and SC.
Also, even if Thurmond does run again, I find it hard to believe he’d winnall tjose states he couldn’t win in 1948. Particularly Georgia and Arkansas.
