Rate North Carolina in 2020

[christian peralta]

Well, as you can see, North Carolina voted republican in every election from 1968 until 2016, with the exceptions of 1976 and 2008, Romney managed to flip back this state (the only swing state that he won), while Trump narrowly carried it. (Carter in 1980 and Clinton in 1992 almost won the state)

Year   Republican   Democratic
2016   49.83% 2,362,631   46.17% 2,189,316
2012   50.39% 2,270,395   48.35% 2,178,391
2008   49.38% 2,128,474   49.70% 2,142,651
2004   56.02% 1,961,166   43.58% 1,525,849
2000   56.03% 1,631,163   43.20% 1,257,692
1996   48.73% 1,225,938   44.04% 1,107,849
1992   43.44% 1,134,661   42.65% 1,114,042
1988   57.97% 1,237,258   41.71% 890,167
1984   61.90% 1,346,481   37.89% 824,287
1980   49.30% 915,018   47.18% 875,635
1976   44.22% 741,960   55.27% 927,365
1972   69.46% 1,054,889   28.89% 438,705
1968   39.51% 627,192   29.24% 464,113
1964   43.85% 624,844   56.15% 800,139
1960   47.89% 655,420   52.11% 713,136

[SN2903]

Likely R. Dems have virtually no chance in this state.

[pppolitics]

Likely R. Dems have virtually no chance in this state.

You misread.


It said "North Carolina", not "Alabama"

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean R. I'm sorry, but it's not worth it. It's a total c***tease.

[SN2903]

Likely R. Dems have virtually no chance in this state.

You misread.


It said "North Carolina", not "Alabama"

Mittens won it in 2012 when he lost the PV by 3.5 percent. It's a state that should trend even more R in 2020 as a lot of those never trumps come back into the fold due to the economy. Atlas is total underestimating the power of incumbency .

[SN2903]

Likely R. Dems have virtually no chance in this state.

You misread.


It said "North Carolina", not "Alabama"

Mittens won it in 2012 when he lost the PV by 3.5 percent. It's a state that should trend even more R in 2020 as a lot of those never trumpers come back into the fold due to the economy. Atlas is total underestimating the power of incumbency .

[OBD]

Tilt R

[TarHeelDem]

True Toss-Up. If Obama won 2008 NC against McCain, a Generic D can definitely win 2020 NC, especially if Trump is the Republican nominee. I think a Harris/Jones ticket for instance would win the state pretty easily, actually.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

NC is destined to be a blue state.  The older part of the electorate is what's keeping it Republican.  Since 2004, the youngest voters in NC have consistently voted for Democrats by large margins.

56% for John Kerry in 2004
74% for Barack Obama in 2008 (the reason he won the state)
67% to re-elect Barack in 2012
57% for Hillary in 2016

In 2016, Hillary won NC under the age of 44 by 10 points.  She lost above the age of 44 by 16 points.  So the 18-29 year olds from the 2000s are now in the 30s and 40s.  It'll take two more decades for there to be a revolution in NC politics - moving it from a conservative Southern Republican state to one of the most liberal Democratic states in the South.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tilt R. Georgia is going to leap frog it as the future progressive bastion in the Deep South.

[SCNCmod]

NC will go for Trump in 2020.  (The Obama-Trump voters I know in rural NC... are even more dug in to Trump/ FOXNews than there were when they voted for him).

...But I think NC will very likely elect a Dem Senator in 2020 (I think/hope State Senator Jeff Jackson runs against Tillis- if so Jackson will win).

...I also think Cooper very likely gets re-elect Governor in 2020.

NC almost always splits the ticket...
4 of the last 5 Governors in NC are Democrats.
4 of the last 5 Presidential races in NC went Republican.

3 of the last 5 Senators in NC are Republicans.

[here2view]

NC will go for Trump in 2020.  (The Obama-Trump voters I know in rural NC... are even more dug in to Trump/ FOXNews than there were when they voted for him).

...But I think NC will very likely elect a Dem Senator in 2020 (I think/hope State Senator Jeff Jackson runs against Tillis- if so Jackson will win).

...I also think Cooper very likely gets re-elect Governor in 2020.

NC almost always splits the ticket...
4 of the last 5 Governors in NC are Democrats.
4 of the last 5 Presidential races in NC went Republican.

3 of the last 5 Senators in NC are Republicans.

I agree with all of this. It's Lean R for 2020 at the Presidential level, however I do think NC will elect a Democratic Senator at the same time. Presidential level turnout will help whoever they nominate, much like how Hagan ran ahead of Obama in 2008.

[TDAS04]

Lean R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R.

I can see Dems duplication of 2012 map and winning AZ and NC. GOP polls are down again in 2018 due to ethics

[DabbingSanta]

Typically lean R, but given the current political climate toss up.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC will go Democratic

[pops]

Likely R for sure. John Hickenlooper is the only Democrat that can win North Carolina.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R for sure. John Hickenlooper is the only Democrat that can win North Carolina.

Hickenloopen isn't charasmatic enough as Harris, Booker or Biden who will be the nominees

[bagelman]

Likely R. Dems have virtually no chance in this state.

You misread.


It said "North Carolina", not "Alabama"

Mittens won it in 2012 when he lost the PV by 3.5 percent. It's a state that should trend even more R in 2020 as a lot of those never trumps come back into the fold due to the economy. Atlas is total underestimating the power of incumbency .

Big assumption about the economy.

[ON Progressive]

The only reasonable ratings of this state are Tossup, Tilt R, and Lean R. Anything else is questionable.

[😥]

Tilt R

[President Johnson]

Tilt Republican.

Right now I'd say Trump wins narrowly by 2 or 3 points. The Democrat takes the state if he or she wins the national popular vote by more than six percentage points.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Tossup

I think it will vote to the left of FL and maybe even to left of WI(Depending on who the Dem is)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Tilt R.

But Lean D if we can get Cooper on the ballot as either potus or vpotus nom.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It Leans R, it's conceivable that Dems win AZ instead