Is the GOP having a 'senior moment'?

[Adam Griffin]

This seems almost too good to be true - especially since the Boomers are now getting firmly rooted in this category. Maybe margins of error are responsible here? Even so...

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The GOP won 65+ voters by 21 and 16 points in 2010 and 2014, respectively.

[Brittain33]

I have noticed in a few polls that 65+ was more friendly to Dems than 50-64. However, it was a minor difference, not a huge one.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It makes sense that Boomers entering the 65+ demographic would shift it a bit more towards Dems.

If this is having a real effect, it would have its effect gradually, not just in a single election. So, it makes sense to look at 2016 as well.

And... If you look at the 2016 Presidential exit polls, they were:

Age 45-64: Trump 52, Clinton 44
Age 65+: Trump 52, Clinton 45

So (to the extent that exit polls are accurate, which is not at all perfect), age 65+ voted about the same as 45-64, and potentially slightly a bit more Dem (Clinton 45 as compared to Clinton 44).

So that supports this idea.

If Republicans are in fact getting significantly lower margins from Seniors now due not just to shifts in the general national environment but due to generational change, and if young voters continue to lean more Democratic, then that will be a positive tailwind for Dems in 2018/2020 at least.