MD-Goucher: Hogan +22

[smoltchanov]

Likely R, but with the possibility to go lean R/tossup. Surprised to see Hogan winning 35% African American voters, and 40% Democrats, though.

Maryland is, of course, Democratic state, but not all it's Democrats are very liberal. When Republicans offer non-extremist alternative to rather extreme Democratic candidate - you must expect a lot of defections. Of course - less, then in 1972 Mississippi (about 90% Democratic in many elections, and 87% for Nixon), but - still...

[smoltchanov]

Dems are doing well in FL, and Hogan is a moderate, anyways just like Ehrlich who won, too.

Ehrlich lost reelection bid, Hogan will, probably, win it.

[smoltchanov]

I'm sure someone will put this in the Hofoid House but I don't care. We need to get dirty. Republican legislators and elected officials were bullied into supporting Trump, the same should be done here!

What if not? If Democratic officeholders refuse to be bullied and will verbally send you .... far away (in order not to use profane words i make substitution here). After all - are they officially OBLIGED to blindly support party nominee??? If it's so, and you have "Bolshevick's-style" requirements for members of your party, i, personally, would not only desire to have nothing in common with it, but, probably, would never vote for it's candidates (out of principle). And about primarying Franchot and other, who strays from "your line" - try it. You think you all allmighty after AOC vcitory??? You are not, thanks God. I have relatives in US, and their votes will surely counterbalance yours)))). Try to return to reality, if you can))))

[smoltchanov]

I'm sure someone will put this in the Hofoid House but I don't care. We need to get dirty. Republican legislators and elected officials were bullied into supporting Trump, the same should be done here!

What if not? If Democratic officeholders refuse to be bullied and will verbally send you .... far away (in order not to use profane words i make substitution here). After all - are they officially OBLIGED to blindly support party nominee??? If it's so, and you have "Bolshevick's-style" requirements for members of your party, i, personally, would not only desire to have nothing in common with it, but, probably, would never vote for it's candidates (out of principle). And about primarying Franchot and other, who strays from "your line" - try it. You think you all allmighty after AOC vcitory??? You are not, thanks God. I have relatives in US, and their votes will surely counterbalance yours)))). Try to return to reality, if you can))))

"Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well)."

Absolutely. "Reliable foot soldiers" is almost synonimic with "obedient idiots" in my parlance...

[smoltchanov]

^ Nevertheless - you won't get Ehrlich back, and, almost assuredly, will get Hogan reelected for 2nd term. So, the only thing that's looks realistic - wait until 2022.

[smoltchanov]

On the bright side, I guess Democrats losing some deep blue states this year gives them a number of pickup opportunities in 2022, even under a Democratic President. lol

Especially because, IIUC, Hogan will be term-limited by then (not sure about Baker), and Scott and Sununu will need to go through one more election in 2020... There is a possibility that ALL these 4 seats will be open by 2022...