Hypothetical: Senator v Senator election in each state
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Author Topic: Hypothetical: Senator v Senator election in each state  (Read 955 times)
Karpatsky
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« on: September 17, 2018, 05:55:25 PM »
Hypothetically, if there were to be a nationwide election between sitting senators, what would the resulting Senate look like, and how close would the elections be? Here are the matchups which I think I can make an educated guess on:

Alabama: solid Shelby (v. Jones) (R)
Alaska: ? (Murkowski v. Sullivan) (R)
Arizona: likely Flake (v. Kyl) (R)
Arkansas: ? (Boozman v. Cotton) (R)
California: lean Harris (v. Feinstein) (D)
Colorado: solid Bennet (v. Gardner) (D)
Connecticut: ? (Blumenthal v. Murphy) (D)
Delaware: ? (Carper v. Coons) (D)
Florida: likely Rubio (v. Nelson) (R)
Georgia: ? (Isakson v. Perdue) (R)
Hawaii: ? (Schatz v. Hirono) (D)
Idaho: ? (Crapo v. Risch) (R)
Illinois: ? (Durbin v. Duckworth) (D)
Indiana: Likely Young (v. Donnelly) (R)
Iowa: ? (Grassley v. Ernst) (R)
Kansas: ? (Roberts v. Moran) (R)
Kentucky: lean Paul (v. McConnell) (R)
Louisiana: ? (Cassidy v. Kennedy) (R)
Maine: Solid King (v. Collins) (I)
Maryland: ? (Cardin v. Van Hollen) (D)
Massachusetts: lean Warren (v. Markey) (D)
Michigan: ? (Stabenow v. Peters) (D)
Minnesota: likely Klobuchar (v. Smith) (D)
Mississippi: lean Wicker (v. Hyde-Smith) (R)
Missouri: likely Blunt (v. McCaskill) (R)
Montana: likely Daines (v. Tester) (R)
Nebraska: lean Sasse (v. Fischer) (R)
Nevada: solid Cortez-Masto (v. Heller) (D)
New Hampshire: lean Shaheen (v. Hassan) (D)
New Jersey: solid Booker (v. Menendez) (D)
New Mexico: ? (Udall v. Heinrich) (D)
New York: Lean Schumer (v. Gillibrand) (D)
North Carolina: ? (Burr v. Tillis) (R)
North Dakota: solid Hoeven (v. Heitkamp) (R)
Ohio: titanium lean Brown (v. Portman) (D)
Oklahoma: ? (Inhofe v. Lankford) (R)
Oregon: ? (Wyden v. Merkley) (D)
Pennsylvania: likely Casey (v. Toomey) (D)
Rhode Island: ? (Reed v. Whitehouse) (D)
South Carolina: lean Scott (v. Graham) (R)
South Dakota: ? (Thune v. Rounds) (R)
Tennessee: lean Corker (v. Alexander) (R)
Texas: solid Cornyn (v. Cruz) (R)
Utah: ? (Hatch v. Lee) (R)
Vermont: likely Sanders (v. Leahy) (I)
Virginia: lean Kaine (v. Warner) (D)
Washington: ? (Murray v. Cantwell) (D)
West Virginia: solid Moore Capito (v. Manchin) (R)
Wisconsin: likely Baldwin (v. Johnson) (D)
Wyoming: ? (Enzi v. Barasso) (R)

New 'halfsenate': 26/22/2
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Josecardoso17
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2018, 11:24:25 AM »
Quote from: Karpatsky on September 17, 2018, 05:55:25 PM
Hypothetically, if there were to be a nationwide election between sitting senators, what would the resulting Senate look like, and how close would the elections be? Here are the matchups which I think I can make an educated guess on:

Alabama: solid Shelby (v. Jones) (R)
Alaska: ? (Murkowski v. Sullivan) (R)
Arizona: likely Flake (v. Kyl) (R)
Arkansas: ? (Boozman v. Cotton) (R)
California: lean Harris (v. Feinstein) (D)
Colorado: solid Bennet (v. Gardner) (D)
Connecticut: ? (Blumenthal v. Murphy) (D)
Delaware: ? (Carper v. Coons) (D)
Florida: likely Rubio (v. Nelson) (R)
Georgia: ? (Isakson v. Perdue) (R)
Hawaii: ? (Schatz v. Hirono) (D)
Idaho: ? (Crapo v. Risch) (R)
Illinois: ? (Durbin v. Duckworth) (D)
Indiana: Likely Young (v. Donnelly) (R)
Iowa: ? (Grassley v. Ernst) (R)
Kansas: ? (Roberts v. Moran) (R)
Kentucky: lean Paul (v. McConnell) (R)
Louisiana: ? (Cassidy v. Kennedy) (R)
Maine: Solid King (v. Collins) (I)
Maryland: ? (Cardin v. Van Hollen) (D)
Massachusetts: lean Warren (v. Markey) (D)
Michigan: ? (Stabenow v. Peters) (D)
Minnesota: likely Klobuchar (v. Smith) (D)
Mississippi: lean Wicker (v. Hyde-Smith) (R)
Missouri: likely Blunt (v. McCaskill) (R)
Montana: likely Daines (v. Tester) (R)
Nebraska: lean Sasse (v. Fischer) (R)
Nevada: solid Cortez-Masto (v. Heller) (D)
New Hampshire: lean Shaheen (v. Hassan) (D)
New Jersey: solid Booker (v. Menendez) (D)
New Mexico: ? (Udall v. Heinrich) (D)
New York: Lean Schumer (v. Gillibrand) (D)
North Carolina: ? (Burr v. Tillis) (R)
North Dakota: solid Hoeven (v. Heitkamp) (R)
Ohio: titanium lean Brown (v. Portman) (D)
Oklahoma: ? (Inhofe v. Lankford) (R)
Oregon: ? (Wyden v. Merkley) (D)
Pennsylvania: likely Casey (v. Toomey) (D)
Rhode Island: ? (Reed v. Whitehouse) (D)
South Carolina: lean Scott (v. Graham) (R)
South Dakota: ? (Thune v. Rounds) (R)
Tennessee: lean Corker (v. Alexander) (R)
Texas: solid Cornyn (v. Cruz) (R)
Utah: ? (Hatch v. Lee) (R)
Vermont: likely Sanders (v. Leahy) (I)
Virginia: lean Kaine (v. Warner) (D)
Washington: ? (Murray v. Cantwell) (D)
West Virginia: solid Moore Capito (v. Manchin) (R)
Wisconsin: likely Baldwin (v. Johnson) (D)
Wyoming: ? (Enzi v. Barasso) (R)

New 'halfsenate': 26/22/2


Montana is a lean for Tester
and everybody knows that Michigan is safe Stabenow ,since Peters is a very outspoken senator
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andjey
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2018, 11:55:07 AM »
« Edited: September 19, 2018, 12:13:49 PM by АndriуValeriovich »
Alabama: likely Shelby (v. Jones) (R)
Alaska: lean Murkowski (v. Sullivan) (R)
Arizona: likely Flake (v. Kyl) (R)
Arkansas: ???Boozman??? (v. Cotton) (R)
California: ???Harris??? (v. Feinstein) (D)
Colorado: solid Bennet (v. Gardner) (D)
Connecticut: lean Murphy (v. Blumenthal) (D)
Delaware: ???Carper??? (Carper v. Coons) (D)
Florida: lean Rubio (v. Nelson) (R)
Georgia: likely Isakson (v. Perdue) (R)
Hawaii: ???Hirono??? (v. Schatz) (D)
Idaho: ???Crapo??? (v. Risch) (R)
Illinois: lean Durbin (v. Duckworth) (D)
Indiana: ???Donnelly??? (v. Young) (D)
Iowa: likely Grassley (v. Ernst) (R)
Kansas: ???Moran??? (v. Roberts) (R)
Kentucky: lean Paul (v. McConnell) (R)
Louisiana: ???Kennedy??? (v. Cassidy) (R)
Maine: solid King (v. Collins) (I/D)
Maryland: lean Van Hollen (v. Cardin) (D)
Massachusetts: lean Warren (v. Markey) (D)
Michigan: solid Stabenow (v. Peters) (D)
Minnesota: solid Klobuchar (v. Smith) (D)
Mississippi: lean Wicker (v. Hyde-Smith) (R)
Missouri: lean McCaskill (v. Blunt) (D)
Montana: solid Tester (v. Daines) (D)
Nebraska: lean Sasse (v. Fischer) (R)
Nevada: solid Cortez-Masto (v. Heller) (D)
New Hampshire: lean Shaheen (v. Hassan) (D)
New Jersey: solid Booker (v. Menendez) (D)
New Mexico: ???Udall??? (v. Heinrich) (D)
New York: lean Schumer (v. Gillibrand) (D)
North Carolina: ???Burr??? (v. Tillis) (R)
North Dakota: solid Hoeven (v. Heitkamp) (R)
Ohio: lean Brown (v. Portman) (D)
Oklahoma: ???Inhofe??? (v. Lankford) (R)
Oregon: lean Wyden (Wydv. Merkley) (D)
Pennsylvania: solid Casey (v. Toomey) (D)
Rhode Island: lean Reed (v. Whitehouse) (D)
South Carolina: lean Graham (v. Scott) (R)
South Dakota: likely Thune (v. Rounds) (R)
Tennessee: lean Corker (v. Alexander) (R)
Texas: solid Cornyn (v. Cruz) (R)
Utah: lean Hatch (v. Lee) (R)
Vermont: likely Sanders (v. Leahy) (I/D)
Virginia: lean Kaine (v. Warner) (D)
Washington: lean Murray (v. Cantwell) (D)
West Virginia: lean Moore Capito (v. Manchin) (R)
Wisconsin: likely Baldwin (v. Johnson) (D)
Wyoming: ???Barasso??? (v. Enzi) (R)

25D, 2I/D
23R
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adamevans
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2018, 01:31:02 PM »
Kentucky would be likely or solid Paul.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2018, 02:54:32 AM »
Burr wins NC in a walk.
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andjey
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« Reply #5 on: June 05, 2019, 05:22:35 AM »
Alabama: likely Shelby (v. Jones) (R)
Alaska: lean Murkowski (v. Sullivan) (R)
Arizona: likely Sinema (v. McSally) (D)
Arkansas: ???Boozman??? (v. Cotton) (R)
California: ???Harris??? (v. Feinstein) (D)
Colorado: solid Bennet (v. Gardner) (D)
Connecticut: lean Murphy (v. Blumenthal) (D)
Delaware: ???Carper??? (Carper v. Coons) (D)
Florida: lean Rubio (v. Scott) (R)
Georgia: likely Isakson (v. Perdue) (R)
Hawaii: ???Hirono??? (v. Schatz) (D)
Idaho: ???Crapo??? (v. Risch) (R)
Illinois: lean Durbin (v. Duckworth) (D)
Indiana: ???Young??? (v. Braun) (R)
Iowa: ???Ernst??? (v. Grassley) (R)
Kansas: ???Moran??? (v. Roberts) (R)
Kentucky: lean Paul (v. McConnell) (R)
Louisiana: ???Kennedy??? (v. Cassidy) (R)
Maine: solid King (v. Collins) (I/D)
Maryland: lean Van Hollen (v. Cardin) (D)
Massachusetts: lean Warren (v. Markey) (D)
Michigan: solid Stabenow (v. Peters) (D)
Minnesota: solid Klobuchar (v. Smith) (D)
Mississippi: lean Wicker (v. Hyde-Smith) (R)
Missouri: lean Hawley (v. Blunt) (R)
Montana: solid Tester (v. Daines) (D)
Nebraska: lean Sasse (v. Fischer) (R)
Nevada: ???solid Cortez-Masto??? (v. Rosen) (D)
New Hampshire: lean Shaheen (v. Hassan) (D)
New Jersey: solid Booker (v. Menendez) (D)
New Mexico: ???Udall??? (v. Heinrich) (D)
New York: lean Schumer (v. Gillibrand) (D)
North Carolina: ???Burr??? (v. Tillis) (R)
North Dakota: solid Hoeven (v. Cramer) (R)
Ohio: lean Brown (v. Portman) (D)
Oklahoma: ???Inhofe??? (v. Lankford) (R)
Oregon: lean Wyden (v. Merkley) (D)
Pennsylvania: solid Casey (v. Toomey) (D)
Rhode Island: lean Reed (v. Whitehouse) (D)
South Carolina: lean Graham (v. Scott) (R)
South Dakota: likely Thune (v. Rounds) (R)
Tennessee: lean Alexander (v. Blackburn) (R)
Texas: solid Cornyn (v. Cruz) (R)
Utah: likely Romney (v. Lee) (R)
Vermont: likely Sanders (v. Leahy) (I/D)
Virginia: lean Kaine (v. Warner) (D)
Washington: lean Murray (v. Cantwell) (D)
West Virginia: lean Moore Capito (v. Manchin) (R)
Wisconsin: likely Baldwin (v. Johnson) (D)
Wyoming: ???Barasso??? (v. Enzi) (R)

24D, 2I/D
24R
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Politician
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« Reply #6 on: June 05, 2019, 09:00:36 AM »
Alabama: Safe Shelby
Alaska: Lean Murkowski
Arizona: Likely Sinema
Arkansas: Tilt Boozman
California: Lean Harris
Colorado: Safe Bennett
Connecticut: Lean Murphy
Delaware: Lean Carper
Florida: Lean Rubio
Georgia: Likely Isakson
Hawaii: Tilt Schatz
Idaho: Lean Crapo
Illinois: Lean Duckworth
Indiana: Tilt Young
Iowa: Tilt Grassley
Kansas: Likely Moran
Kentucky: Safe Paul
Louisiana: Lean Kennedy
Maine: Lean King
Maryland: Lean Van Hollen
Massachusetts: Tilt Warren
Michigan: Lean Peters
Minnesota: Safe Klobuchar
Mississippi: Likely Wicker
Missouri: Likely Hawley
Montana: Likely Tester
Nebraska: Tilt Fischer
Nevada: Likely Cortez-Masto
New Hampshire: Tilt Shaheen
New Jersey: Safe Booker
New Mexico: Lean Heinrich
New York: Tilt Schumer
North Carolina: Lean Burr
North Dakota: Likely Hoeven
Ohio: Tilt Portman
Oklahoma: Likely Lankford
Oregon: Lean Merkley
Pennsylvania: Likely Casey
Rhode Island: Likely Reed
South Carolina: Lean Scott
South Dakota: Lean Thune
Tennessee: Tilt Alexander
Texas: Lean Cornyn
Utah: Tilt Lee
Vermont: Safe Sanders
Virginia: Tilt Warner
Washington: Tilt Murray
West Virginia: Likely Capito
Wisconsin: Likely Baldwin
Wyoming: Lean Barrasso
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Rhenna
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« Reply #7 on: June 05, 2019, 09:52:16 AM »
« Edited: June 05, 2019, 09:55:38 AM by Frenchy »
AL: Safe Shelby
AK: Tossup (Tilt Murkowski??)
AZ: Likely Sinema
AR: Lean Boozman
CA: Likely Harris
CO: Safe Bennet
CT: Lean Murphy
DE: Tossup (Tilt Carper)
FL: Lean Rubio
GA: Lean Isakson
HI: Lean Hirono
ID: Likely Risch
IL: Toss Up (Tilt Duckworth)
IN: Likely Young
IA: Likely Grassley
KS: Safe Moran
KY: Safe Paul
LA: Lean Kennedy
ME: Likely King
MD: Lean Cardin
MA: Lean Warren
MI: Likely Stabenow
MN: Safe Klobuchar
MS: Safe Wicker
MO: Lean Blunt
MT: Lean Tester
NE: Likely Fischer
NV: Likely Cortez-Masto
NH: Toss Up (Tilt Hassan)
NJ: Safe Booker
NM: Likely Heinrich
NY: Likely Schumer
NC: Likely Burr
ND: Safe Hoeven
OH: Toss Up (Tilt Portman)
OK: Lean Lankford
OR: Lean Merkley
PA: Likely Casey
RI: Likely Reed
SC: Lean Scott
SD: Likely Thune
TN: Lean Blackburn
TX: Toss Up (Tilt Cornyn)
UT: Lean Lee
VT: Likely Sanders
VA: Lean Warner
WA: Safe Murray
WV: Lean Moore-Capito
WI: Toss Up (Tilt Baldwin)
WY: Likely Barrasso

25 R, 23 D, 2 I
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #8 on: June 06, 2019, 03:40:34 PM »
AL: Safe Shelby
AK: Lean Sullivan
AZ: Likely Sinema
AR: Lean Boozman
CA: Lean Feinstein
CO: Safe Bennet
CT: Likely Murphy
DE: Tilt Carper
FL: Lean Rubio
GA: Lean Isakson
HI: Likely Hirono
ID: Likely Crapo
IL: Safe Durbin
KS: Safe Moran
KY: Safe McConnell
LA: Lean Kennedy
ME: Likely King
MD: Likely Cardin
MA: Lean Warren
MI: Toss-up
MN: Safe Klobuchar
MS: Safe Wicker
MO: Likely Hawley
MT: Lean Tester
NE: Likely Fisher
NV: Likely Cortez-Masto
NH: Lean Hassan
NJ: Safe Booker
NM: Likely Udall
NY: Safe Schumer
NC: Safe Burr
ND: Likely Hoeven
OH: Toss-up
OK: Lean Lankford
OR: Lean Merkley
PA: Likely Casey
RI: Tilt Whitehouse
SC: Lean Scott
SD: Safe Thune
TN: Lean Blackburn
TX: Likely Cornyn
UT: Tilt Romney
VT: Lean Sanders
VA: Toss-up
WA: Safe Murray
WV: Likely Moore-Capito
WI: Lean Baldwin
WY: Safe Barrasso
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Hamiltap
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« Reply #9 on: June 08, 2019, 09:38:43 AM »
Portman would absolutely trounce Brown. Ohio is a reddish and reddening state, and Brown is one of the most left-wing members of the Senate. He's only still Senator because of the luck of the electoral draw (2006, 2012, and 2018).
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