Maryland State Senate Projections

[PragmaticPopulist]

Going off what BRTD is doing with the Minnesota State House, I'll be doing the same thing with Maryland's state senate. This won't be as interesting due to Maryland having Democratic supermajorities in the senate (as well as the House of Delegates), but I think it will be interesting nonetheless.

Here's the current composition. Democrats hold a 33-14 majority, and it appears unlikely they will lose their ability to override vetoes, even if Hogan wins by a strong margin.



And here's my ratings:


29 Safe Democratic
1 Likely Democratic
3 Leans Democratic
3 Tossup
1 Leans Republican
10 Safe Republican

[BBD]

Do the Pubs really have any chance of taking down James Mathias? Who's their candidate? Seems like 2018 just isn't the year.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Do the Pubs really have any chance of taking down James Mathias? Who's their candidate? Seems like 2018 just isn't the year.

I will get to explaining all the competitive races. As for Mathias, I think he's definitely a slight favorite.

[PragmaticPopulist]

I'll be listing both the 2016 results in the districts, and the last general election results, from 2014.

1 (Western MD)
Clinton 23
Trump 74

Edwards (R) Uncontested

For generations, Western Maryland has been dominated by Republicans, and it's showing no signs of changing. This district is uncontested again this year. Safe R

2 (Washington County)
Clinton 35
Trump 61

Shank (R) Uncontested

Another ancestrally Republican seat in Western Maryland. It would be interesting to see Delaney's 2012 numbers here, as he actually narrowly carried Washington County that year, but it's uncontested this year. Safe R

3 (Frederick)
Clinton 56
Trump 38

Young (D) 51
Stottlemyer (R) 49


This seat based in the City of Frederick looked to be a top pickup opportunity for Republicans earlier in the cycle, but the environment has gone from bad to worse, and Hogan isn't likely to have much if any coattail effect, even though he's likely to carry this district. It also doesn't help Republicans that the County as a whole is definitely trending Democratic, and I think it's likely to vote Democratic in 2020 for the first time since 1964. Likely D

4 (Out-County Frederick)
Clinton 36
Trump 58

Rupli (D) 32
Hough (R) 68

This contain the parts of Frederick County outside of Frederick and other Democratic-leaning parts of the southern part of the county. Safe R

5 (Northern Carroll)
Clinton 28
Trump 66

Riley (D) 21
Getty (R) 78

This was Trump's third-best district in the state. While the Republican tradition in Carroll County does not go as far back as the tradition in Western Maryland, it's still been Republican for a very long time. Even Lyndon Johnson only won the county by less than a point in 1964. While there's no chance of a Democrat winning here, the City of Westminster, while normally fairly Republican, swung against Trump slightly in 2016. The Dem candidate is also fairly interesting. The margin will be something to watch. Safe R

[PragmaticPopulist]

6 (Essex-Dundalk)
Clinton 41
Trump 55

Olszekski (D) 45
Salling (R) 48

No where else in the state was the blue-collar white swing towards Trump more evident than here. This district is directly east of Baltimore along the Chesapeake Bay, which is where the old steel mill called Sparrow's Point is. However, this year, the area appears to be swinging back towards its Democratic roots. The Democratic nominee here is running as an old-school, pro-labor Democrat, winning the support of local unions. Add to it that the 2014 nominee, was was a state delegate here for 12 years, is the Dem nominee for Baltimore County executive, plus the fact that he only lost by 3 in 2014, and this is looking like a real race. Tossup

7 (Northeast BaltCo/Western Harford)
Clinton 31
Trump 63

Letke (D) 25
Jennings (R) 75

Ancestrally Republican territory showing no signs of being competitive. Safe R

8 (Parkville)
Clinton 53
Trump 42

Klausmeier (D) 61
Lofstad (R) 39

This is another district that was looking potentially competitive early in the cycle, but the environment has gotten more favorable for Democrats. Klausmeier is facing a stronger opponent this time in a state delegate, but she's still a strong incumbent, and will likely win, even if Hogan carries this district. Safe D

[Virginiá]

This is good stuff PragPop! Glad to see some analysis of my old area

Will you be doing an analysis of the state House?

[PragmaticPopulist]

This is good stuff PragPop! Glad to see some analysis of my old area

Will you be doing an analysis of the state House?

I'll see what I can do. I can definitely do the single-member seats, but the multi-member ones are a bit tougher. I do have knowledge of how a few of the multi-member seat races are going though, so that should help.

[Virginiá]

This is good stuff PragPop! Glad to see some analysis of my old area

Will you be doing an analysis of the state House?

I'll see what I can do. I can definitely do the single-member seats, but the multi-member ones are a bit tougher. I do have knowledge of how a few of the multi-member seat races are going though, so that should help.

To save on time, you could always just do the competitive/semi-competitive seats. Anywhooo, I'll be eagerly waiting!

[PragmaticPopulist]

9 ("Howroll")
Clinton 51
Trump 44

Frederic (D) 34
Bates (R) 66

This is my home district, containing most of Howard County and the more suburban southern portion of Carroll County ("Howroll" is a combination of the words "Howard" and "Carroll"). This is the only Republican-held district in the state that Hillary Clinton carried, and as such is one of the Democrats' best pickup opportunities. I believe that the incumbent, Gail Bates, is too conservative for the district; a whopping 64.2% of residents have a bachelor's degree or higher, and Bates is a reliable party-line voter in the senate. Bates is well known; prior to being elected to the Maryland Senate in 2014, she was in the House of Delegates since 2002. But having only been in the senate for one-term, that might not give her as much of the entrenchment effect as normal. The Democratic nominee is a Nonprofit Executive, Katie Hester, who appears to have generated the most enthusiasm for a Democratic state senate candidate that I've ever seen here; I'm seeing the most signs for her than I ever have for other nominees. Tossup

10 (Randallstown-Reisterstown)
Clinton 77
Trump 19

Kelley (D) Uncontested

Safe D

11 (Owings Mills)
Clinton 65
Trump 31

Zirken (D) Uncontested

Safe D

12 (Columbia-Catonsville)
Clinton 63
Trump 32

Kasemeyer (D) 59
Pippy (R) 41

This area was more R-friendly at the state level back in 2002, but that was ages ago. Safe D

13 (Southeastern Howard)
Clinton 70
Trump 24

Guzzone (D) 62
Venkatesan (R) 38

Safe D

14 (Northeastern Montgomery)
Clinton 68
Trump 27

Montgomery (D) 57
Howard (R) 42

Safe D

15 (Western Montgomery)
Clinton 69
Trump 27

Feldman (D) 60
Ficker (R) 39

Safe D

16 (Potomac-Bethesda)
Clinton 79
Trump 17

Lee (D) 70
Marks (R) 30

Interesting fact: this is home of the Congressional Country Club, and is where CPAC is held annually. It's also Attorney General Brian Frosh's former seat. Safe D

17 (Gaithersburg-Rockville)
Clinton 76
Trump 20

Kagan (D) 68
Zellers (R) 31

Safe D

[PragmaticPopulist]

18 (Wheaton)
Clinton 82
Trump 14

Madaleno (D) Uncontested

The seat Rich Madaleno retired from to run for governor. Safe D

19 (Aspen Hill)
Clinton 75
Trump 22

Manno (D) 68
Gonzales (R) 32

20 (Silver Spring-Takoma Park)
Clinton 88
Trump 9

Raskin (D) Uncontested

Jamie Raskin's old seat. Safe D

21 (Laurel-College Park)
Clinton 75
Trump 21

Rosapepe (D) Uncontested

Safe D

22 (Greenbelt)
Clinton 89
Trump 8

Pinsky 87
Fountaine 13

Safe D

23 (Northeastern Prince George's)
Clinton 81
Trump 16

Peters (D) Uncontested

Safe D

24 (Seabrook)
Clinton 94
Trump 4

Benson (D) Uncontested

Safe D

25 (Joint Base Andrews)
Clinton 94
Trump 4

Currie (D) 92
Boone (R) 6

Clinton's best district in the state. Safe D

26 (Southwestern Prince George's)
Clinton 92
Trump 6

Muse (D) 90
Howells (R) 10

Safe D

27 ("Prince Calvert")
Clinton 57
Trump 39

Miller (D) 62
Peed (R) 37

Senate President Thomas "Mike" Miller's district, containing southern Prince George's County and most of Calvert County. While Republicans would love to target him, his district is safely Democratic, and he is a strong incumbent, having outperformed Clinton's 2016 performance even in the Republican wave year of 2014. Safe D

28 (Charles County)
Clinton 64
Trump 32

Middleton (D) 64
Donnelly (R) 33

Charles County has gone from slightly Democratic-leaning to a Democratic stronghold over the past decade. Safe D

29 (St. Mary's County)
Clinton 37
Trump 57

Dyson (D) 43
Waugh (R) 56

One of the seats Republicans picked up in 2014. St. Mary's County held onto its Democratic roots for a long time at the state and local levels, but 2014 was just too much. Democrats don't appear to be seriously contesting this seat this year, even though the incumbent Republican was defeated in the primary by a conservative challenger. Safe R

Update (11/1): There appears to be slight movement towards the Democrat here due to anger over Hogan supporting the primary challenger. I still think the Republican wins, but moving it to Likely R.

30 (Southeastern Anne Arundel)
Clinton 52
Trump 43

Astle (D) 51
Quinn (R) 49

Heading back up north, this perennial battleground district contains the State Capital of Annapolis and the more rural southern portion of Anne Arundel County. The incumbent retired to run for Mayor of Annapolis, but lost the primary, and did not jump back into the race. Both sides have good candidates, and this will probably be a close race, but the environment will probably save Democrats this seat, even if Hogan wins here by double-digits. Leans D

31 (Northeastern Anne Arundel)
Clinton 37
Trump 58

Simonaire (R) 72
Harman (D) 28

The most Republican part of Anne Arundel County, containing Pasadena and white working-class areas just south of Baltimore. Safe R

32 (Northwestern Anne Arundel)
Clinton 59
Trump 36

DeGrange (D) 59
Barber (R) 41

The most Democratic part of Anne Arundel County. A lot of residents here work at the NSA Headquarters at Fort Meade, which is in this district. Safe D

33 (Central Anne Arundel)
Clinton 46.86
Trump 47.37

Reilly (R) Uncontested

This district had the closest result in the state in 2016, even though it was uncontested in 2014. Democrats have a strong challenger this time in a former Navy Pilot, owing to the district's large veteran population. Still, this is not going to be an easy race for Democrats, with the incumbent being the Senate Minority Whip, and Hogan's popularity in Anne Arundel County. Tossup

The D candidate appears to have fell flat a bit. Moving this to Leans R.

[PragmaticPopulist]

34 (Southern Harford)
Clinton 46
Trump 49

Dulany-James (D) 43
Cassily (R) 57

This district, containing heavily Republican Bel Air, heavily Democratic Aberdeen, and mildly Democratic Havre de Grace, is the only competitive part of Harford County. The Republican incumbent is a freshman, so he's not super-entrenched, but the Democratic nominee, a former State Delegate, is back for a rematch, which may or may not be a good thing for Democrats. I would have expected Dulany-James to lose by more given Hogan's landslide here, so she might be stronger than her loss in 2014 might indicate. That said, Trump still won here by 3, and Harfard County is a pretty well-educated county, meaning that those voters are more likely to turn out, and probably lean Republican given the district's lean. Leans R

35 (Northeast Maryland)
Clinton 27
Trump 68

Kelly (D) 27
Norman (R) 74

Northwestern Harford and Northern Cecil County. The incumbent died in office earlier this year, but the Republican tradition here is too strong for the district to be competitive at any level. Safe R

36 (Northern Shore)
Clinton 34
Trump 62

Tilghman (D) 33
Hershey (R) 67

Heading south to the eastern shore now. Believe it or not, this area was competitive back in the late 90s, but that's ancient history. Safe R

37 (Southwest Shore)
Clinton 43
Trump 53

Robinson (D) 34
Eckardt (R) 66

Historical fact: this district is the birthplace of Harriet Tubman and Frederick Douglas.

On paper, the right kind of Democrat could win this district. It contains 3 of the most populated cities on the Eastern Shore: Salisbury, Easton, and Cambridge. But the Democratic candidate is under-funded, and doesn't have the strongest roots to the district; she lived in New York and Massachusetts for 20 years before moving to Maryland. I guess it's worth watching the margin here, as she does seem to have a strong platform, and Talbot County appears to be trending Democratic, but the Democrats could have made a better effort here. Safe R

38 (Southeast Shore)
Clinton 38
Trump 59

Mathias (D) 52
McDermott (R) 48

Jim Mathias is truly the last of his kind in the Maryland legislature. A former State Delegate and Mayor of Ocean City, he won this district as an open seat in 2010, in spite of the Republican wave. He faced an even more hostile environment in 2014, when Hogan was dominating here. His strength is mostly attributed to his talent for retail politics and personal brand he has built over the years. That said, he is a fairly reliable Democratic vote in the state senate, and is facing a somewhat stronger opponent this time around in an incumbent state delegate. This is gonna be another tight race, but Mathias appears to be in fairly good shape to win another term. Leans D

39 (Germantown)
Clinton 76
Trump 20

King (D) Uncontested

Jumping back over to central Maryland now. Safe D

40 (Central Baltimore)
Clinton 89
Trump 8

Pugh (D) Uncontested

This is Baltimore Mayor Catherine Pugh's old seat. Safe D

41 (West Baltimore)
Clinton 89
Trump 8

Gladden (D) Uncontested

Safe D

42 (Towson-Cockeysville)
Clinton 51
Trump 43

Brochin (D) 52
Robinson (R) 48

Stretching from Baltimore's Democratic-leaning northern suburbs to the conservative agricultural areas around the Pennsylvania line, this is probably the best pickup opportunity for Republicans. The Democratic incumbent is retiring, and actually endorsed Hogan over Jealous. Both sides have strong candidates, but in this sort of environment, I'm inclined to give the Democrat the slight edge. Things could turn around though, given that Republicans appear to be really focused on this district. Leans D

43 (Northern Baltimore)
Clinton 89
Trump 7

Conway (D) Uncontested

Safe D

44 (Woodlawn-Catonsville)
Clinton 84
Trump 13

Nathan-Pulliam (D) 80
Reiter (R) 20

Safe D

45 (Northeast Baltimore)
Clinton 88
Trump 9

McFadden (D) Uncontested

Safe D

46 (Inner Harbor)
Clinton 74
Trump 20

Ferguson (D) Uncontested

Safe D

47 (Landover-Langley Park)
Clinton 92
Trump 6

Ramirez (D) Uncontested

Safe D

--------------------------------

And that's everything. There could be anywhere from a net Democrat+3 to a net Republican+1.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Straight outta Anne Arundel!!

[Virginiá]

Timothy87 if you want to debate someone on their ratings, do so respectfully, instead of some "LOL UR WRONG" claptrap. You are being rude for literally no reason at all.

(posts were deleted)

[Timothy87]

Timothy87 if you want to debate someone on their ratings, do so respectfully, instead of some "LOL UR WRONG" claptrap. You are being rude for literally no reason at all.

(posts were deleted)

I didn't know there is censorship on this forum in the form of deleting comments that you don't like. Telling someone his predictions are laughable isn't disrespectful nor is it rude. Grow up.

To reiterate the poster of this thread was wrong about his "interesting fact" that the annual CPAC takes place at the Congressional Country Club in Montgomery County, MD. It in fact takes place at National Harbor in Prince George's County, but I get pointing out someone's mistake is "rude" and "disrespectful" to you Democrats

[Virginiá]

I didn't know there is censorship on this forum in the form of deleting comments that you don't like. Telling someone his predictions are laughable isn't disrespectful nor is it rude. Grow up.

Actually, it's more about civility. I take a harder line against users who burst in someone's analysis thread just to inject some internet comments section-level tripe. Post a rebuttal. Tell him what districts you think he has wrong. Don't just spit on it like some random internet jerk. Have some awareness of how you say things to people.

[Doimper]

Awesome thread, thanks for taking the time to put this together.

I feel like there's some upset potential in 29 (my district). The local political establishment is _pissed_ that Hogan shivved the incumbent Senator, who had pretty broad support and a good relationship with Pax - and the "independent Democrat" candidate, Thomas Brewer, seems to have a fair amount of grassroots support and a base in St. Mary's College. Probably won't be enough, but we'll see.

Hogan acolytes are hyping the fact that they need "only" five seats to break the supermajority (was this what Timothy87's posts were about?), but that's clearly not going to happen.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Awesome thread, thanks for taking the time to put this together.

I feel like there's some upset potential in 29 (my district). The local political establishment is _pissed_ that Hogan shivved the incumbent Senator, who had pretty broad support and a good relationship with Pax - and the "independent Democrat" candidate, Thomas Brewer, seems to have a fair amount of grassroots support and a base in St. Mary's College. Probably won't be enough, but we'll see.

Hogan acolytes are hyping the fact that they need "only" five seats to break the supermajority (was this what Timothy87's posts were about?), but that's clearly not going to happen.

I've been hearing more about that race in recent days, and I learned that DDHQ recently moved that race from Likely R to Leans R. I'll move it to Likely R, just to be safe. I don't know too much about the politics of St. Mary's County other than it held onto its Democratic roots at the state level for a long time.

District 29: Safe R -> Likely R

Timothy87 if you want to debate someone on their ratings, do so respectfully, instead of some "LOL UR WRONG" claptrap. You are being rude for literally no reason at all.

(posts were deleted)

I didn't know there is censorship on this forum in the form of deleting comments that you don't like. Telling someone his predictions are laughable isn't disrespectful nor is it rude. Grow up.

To reiterate the poster of this thread was wrong about his "interesting fact" that the annual CPAC takes place at the Congressional Country Club in Montgomery County, MD. It in fact takes place at National Harbor in Prince George's County, but I get pointing out someone's mistake is "rude" and "disrespectful" to you Democrats

It was an honest mistake. I didn't see the post, so I can't comment on if it was rude or not.

[Timothy87]

Awesome thread, thanks for taking the time to put this together.

I feel like there's some upset potential in 29 (my district). The local political establishment is _pissed_ that Hogan shivved the incumbent Senator, who had pretty broad support and a good relationship with Pax - and the "independent Democrat" candidate, Thomas Brewer, seems to have a fair amount of grassroots support and a base in St. Mary's College. Probably won't be enough, but we'll see.

Hogan acolytes are hyping the fact that they need "only" five seats to break the supermajority (was this what Timothy87's posts were about?), but that's clearly not going to happen.

I've been hearing more about that race in recent days, and I learned that DDHQ recently moved that race from Likely R to Leans R. I'll move it to Likely R, just to be safe. I don't know too much about the politics of St. Mary's County other than it held onto its Democratic roots at the state level for a long time.

District 29: Safe R -> Likely R

Timothy87 if you want to debate someone on their ratings, do so respectfully, instead of some "LOL UR WRONG" claptrap. You are being rude for literally no reason at all.

(posts were deleted)

I didn't know there is censorship on this forum in the form of deleting comments that you don't like. Telling someone his predictions are laughable isn't disrespectful nor is it rude. Grow up.

To reiterate the poster of this thread was wrong about his "interesting fact" that the annual CPAC takes place at the Congressional Country Club in Montgomery County, MD. It in fact takes place at National Harbor in Prince George's County, but I get pointing out someone's mistake is "rude" and "disrespectful" to you Democrats

It was an honest mistake. I didn't see the post, so I can't comment on if it was rude or not.

My exact words were "LOL your ratings are laughable", because they did in fact make me laugh out loud, quite literally. I appreciated the levity.  I will elaborate on my disagreements with your rankings.

The context: Hard to predict what the statewide margin will be between Hogan and Jealous but this much is certain: outside of Montgomery, Prince George's and Baltimore City (where there are zero competitive legislative races anyway) Hogan will utterly destroy Jealous. Your analysis could be plausible only if a weak, Trumpian Republican were running against an incumbent Democrat or in an open race. That is not the case. Maryland republicans are energized, love Hogan and most importantly, they GET. OUT. AND. VOTE.

District 3: Lean Dem. Given that Young narrowly won in 2014, and that this portion of Frederick County has picked up even more Democrats since, this is easily the toughest of the five seats Republicans are targeting. I think with Hogan leading the way Giangrande has a change, but I could see Young winning by 1-5%

District 6: Solid Hogan country in my father's hometown. Dems will pick up nothing here but the margins could be closer than you'd think due to the "old" Dem nature of Dundalk.

Districts 8 and 9: These ratings I find to be very imaginative. You rated 8 as "solid Dem" and 9 as a "toss up" despite the fact that Gail Bates performed better in her seat 4 years ago than Klausmeier did in hers. 66% versus 62%. With strong Republicans Hogan and Kittleman running in Howard, I don't see Bates in danger whatsoever. The fact that Clinton won this district means nothing. Maryland votes quite differently at the federal versus state level, but also if not for the disgust with Trump by more affluent, educated Republicans, she would not have carried this seat. (Howard County was where Szeliga outperformed Trump the most, losing by 26 instead of 34.

To further drive this point home, in 2014 Gail Bates won 33k votes despite only 24k republicans voting. Her Dem opponent Frederic won only 17k votes, underperforming the 19.6k democrats who voted. She clearly has broad appeal.

With regards to district 8, Klausmeier is in so much danger, she's mailing campaign fliers bragging about her working with Hogan (as is Jim Mathias). She drew the strongest challenger possible, my friend Del. Christian Miele, who as a first time candidate drew the most votes in the HoD races in 2014. Hogan will romp in this district.

My opinion is District 8 is a toss up. District 9 is likely to safe R.

District 27. Hard to argue that Miller is the favorite. This power loving dinosaur has been president of the Senate since I was born. Calvert County has enormous GOP turnout in the primary despite there being no competitive races, which leads me to believe those voters are fired up and Hogan will romp in this area. I could see this being Miller's closest race in decades.

District 29: I think the concerns that the party grassroots "anger" at Hogan over the primary are a bit overblown since party grassroots are the ones who vote in primaries, and voted out Waugh. No county swung harder to Hogan than Saint Mary's. Safe R

District 30: Toss up/Lean R. Longtime Dem Sen. John Astle nearly lost four years ago. With a strong name like former Del. Ron George, an open seat, and Hogan romping in Anne Arundel County, this one looks good for a pick up.

District 33: Toss up!?! Seriously!? Again to be intellectually honest, how can you rate a seat so strongly Republican that no democrat even filed to run here in 2010 and 2014 a "toss up" yet districts 30 and 38 aren't toss ups? Safe R.

District 34: My home district. While Harford county Democrats are concentrated in the corridor stretching from Edgewood to Havre de Grace, the presence of Bel Air and Abingdon make this a safe seat for Cassilly. Aberdeen is modestly Democratic but hardly "solidly Dem." Trump did well there, and Hogan won all the major precincts in Aberdeen four years ago as well as in Havre de Grace. Former Del. Mary-Dulaney James is a stale name at this point. Solid R.

District 38: Toss-up/Leans R. Sen. Jim Mathias is in so much danger that he's touting his relationship with Hogan to save his re-election in campaign mailers. Hogan will destroy Jealous in the lower shore, and likely take out Mathias with strong candidate Del. Mary Beth Carozza. I don't read too much into early voting but Dem turnout is lagging the most in this part of the state.

District 42: Leans R. Tim Robinson nearly beat the very popular Sen. Jim Brochin four years ago. Brochin has long had crossover support due to not being a party line Democrat, and he endorsed Hogan. With this seat open Del. Chris West should have no trouble winning.

Overall, I expect republicans to pick up at worst two, at best five seats. The five seat pick up that Hogan and state republicans desire will be difficult, but it is not implausible. We'll find out in six days.

As for the House of Delegates, due to the extreme and insidious Democrat gerrymandering, Republicans are nearly maxed out there. The only realistic pic up opportunities for republicans are the third seat in district 8, district 31A, the second seat in district 34A and maybe an outside chance at district 27B. The weakest republican seats are districts 3B, 9B and 34A but with Hogan on the top of the ticket I doubt Democrats can make gains.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Awesome thread, thanks for taking the time to put this together.

I feel like there's some upset potential in 29 (my district). The local political establishment is _pissed_ that Hogan shivved the incumbent Senator, who had pretty broad support and a good relationship with Pax - and the "independent Democrat" candidate, Thomas Brewer, seems to have a fair amount of grassroots support and a base in St. Mary's College. Probably won't be enough, but we'll see.

Hogan acolytes are hyping the fact that they need "only" five seats to break the supermajority (was this what Timothy87's posts were about?), but that's clearly not going to happen.

I've been hearing more about that race in recent days, and I learned that DDHQ recently moved that race from Likely R to Leans R. I'll move it to Likely R, just to be safe. I don't know too much about the politics of St. Mary's County other than it held onto its Democratic roots at the state level for a long time.

District 29: Safe R -> Likely R

Timothy87 if you want to debate someone on their ratings, do so respectfully, instead of some "LOL UR WRONG" claptrap. You are being rude for literally no reason at all.

(posts were deleted)

I didn't know there is censorship on this forum in the form of deleting comments that you don't like. Telling someone his predictions are laughable isn't disrespectful nor is it rude. Grow up.

To reiterate the poster of this thread was wrong about his "interesting fact" that the annual CPAC takes place at the Congressional Country Club in Montgomery County, MD. It in fact takes place at National Harbor in Prince George's County, but I get pointing out someone's mistake is "rude" and "disrespectful" to you Democrats

It was an honest mistake. I didn't see the post, so I can't comment on if it was rude or not.

My exact words were "LOL your ratings are laughable", because they did in fact make me laugh out loud, quite literally. I appreciated the levity.  I will elaborate on my disagreements with your rankings.

The context: Hard to predict what the statewide margin will be between Hogan and Jealous but this much is certain: outside of Montgomery, Prince George's and Baltimore City (where there are zero competitive legislative races anyway) Hogan will utterly destroy Jealous. Your analysis could be plausible only if a weak, Trumpian Republican were running against an incumbent Democrat or in an open race. That is not the case. Maryland republicans are energized, love Hogan and most importantly, they GET. OUT. AND. VOTE.

District 3: Lean Dem. Given that Young narrowly won in 2014, and that this portion of Frederick County has picked up even more Democrats since, this is easily the toughest of the five seats Republicans are targeting. I think with Hogan leading the way Giangrande has a change, but I could see Young winning by 1-5%

District 6: Solid Hogan country in my father's hometown. Dems will pick up nothing here but the margins could be closer than you'd think due to the "old" Dem nature of Dundalk.

Districts 8 and 9: These ratings I find to be very imaginative. You rated 8 as "solid Dem" and 9 as a "toss up" despite the fact that Gail Bates performed better in her seat 4 years ago than Klausmeier did in hers. 66% versus 62%. With strong Republicans Hogan and Kittleman running in Howard, I don't see Bates in danger whatsoever. The fact that Clinton won this district means nothing. Maryland votes quite differently at the federal versus state level, but also if not for the disgust with Trump by more affluent, educated Republicans, she would not have carried this seat. (Howard County was where Szeliga outperformed Trump the most, losing by 26 instead of 34.

To further drive this point home, in 2014 Gail Bates won 33k votes despite only 24k republicans voting. Her Dem opponent Frederic won only 17k votes, underperforming the 19.6k democrats who voted. She clearly has broad appeal.

With regards to district 8, Klausmeier is in so much danger, she's mailing campaign fliers bragging about her working with Hogan (as is Jim Mathias). She drew the strongest challenger possible, my friend Del. Christian Miele, who as a first time candidate drew the most votes in the HoD races in 2014. Hogan will romp in this district.

My opinion is District 8 is a toss up. District 9 is likely to safe R.

District 27. Hard to argue that Miller is the favorite. This power loving dinosaur has been president of the Senate since I was born. Calvert County has enormous GOP turnout in the primary despite there being no competitive races, which leads me to believe those voters are fired up and Hogan will romp in this area. I could see this being Miller's closest race in decades.

District 29: I think the concerns that the party grassroots "anger" at Hogan over the primary are a bit overblown since party grassroots are the ones who vote in primaries, and voted out Waugh. No county swung harder to Hogan than Saint Mary's. Safe R

District 30: Toss up/Lean R. Longtime Dem Sen. John Astle nearly lost four years ago. With a strong name like former Del. Ron George, an open seat, and Hogan romping in Anne Arundel County, this one looks good for a pick up.

District 33: Toss up!?! Seriously!? Again to be intellectually honest, how can you rate a seat so strongly Republican that no democrat even filed to run here in 2010 and 2014 a "toss up" yet districts 30 and 38 aren't toss ups? Safe R.

District 34: My home district. While Harford county Democrats are concentrated in the corridor stretching from Edgewood to Havre de Grace, the presence of Bel Air and Abingdon make this a safe seat for Cassilly. Aberdeen is modestly Democratic but hardly "solidly Dem." Trump did well there, and Hogan won all the major precincts in Aberdeen four years ago as well as in Havre de Grace. Former Del. Mary-Dulaney James is a stale name at this point. Solid R.

District 38: Toss-up/Leans R. Sen. Jim Mathias is in so much danger that he's touting his relationship with Hogan to save his re-election in campaign mailers. Hogan will destroy Jealous in the lower shore, and likely take out Mathias with strong candidate Del. Mary Beth Carozza. I don't read too much into early voting but Dem turnout is lagging the most in this part of the state.

District 42: Leans R. Tim Robinson nearly beat the very popular Sen. Jim Brochin four years ago. Brochin has long had crossover support due to not being a party line Democrat, and he endorsed Hogan. With this seat open Del. Chris West should have no trouble winning.

Overall, I expect republicans to pick up at worst two, at best five seats. The five seat pick up that Hogan and state republicans desire will be difficult, but it is not implausible. We'll find out in six days.

As for the House of Delegates, due to the extreme and insidious Democrat gerrymandering, Republicans are nearly maxed out there. The only realistic pic up opportunities for republicans are the third seat in district 8, district 31A, the second seat in district 34A and maybe an outside chance at district 27B. The weakest republican seats are districts 3B, 9B and 34A but with Hogan on the top of the ticket I doubt Democrats can make gains.

I'm not discounting the fact that Hogan will probably win by high single or even low double-digits, but remember that that's because Hogan is getting ~38% of Democrats to support him, and I expect most of those voters to split their tickets. Remember that Maryland still has a 2-1 Dem registration edge, and Hogan won 4 years ago because he managed to differentiate himself with the more conservative elements of his party.

I admit, some of my ratings might have been a been bullish on Democrats. I now think Rs are clearly favored in Districts 6, 33, and 34, and maybe District 3 is more vulnerable than I thought, DDHQ recently moved it to leans D, but I stand by my other ratings.


I don't know much about district 8, but I think the fact that this is a Dem-leaning year (aside from the governor's race, of course) and the fact that Klausmeier easily won in 2014 means that she's at least a slight favorite. Also, touting ability to work with the other party does not mean you're in deep trouble. If anything, it's a smart move in a situation where the governor of the opposing party is very popular. Not to mention that Democrats got over 60% of the primary vote there.

In district 9, Democrats didn't seriously challenge Bates in 2014. She now has a very serious challenger who's been attacking Bates for a voting record that has probably been too conservative for the district, like voting against free community college for people under a certain income bracket. I think Bates might still have a slight edge here, but I think it's gonna be her closest race ever.

Most of the population in District 27 is in midnight blue Prince George's County, and should easily outvote the Calvert part of the district. Coupled with the fact that Miller is the Senate President, and he should at least win by low double-digits.

I acknowledge that District 30 is gonna be a closely-fought battle, but I'm inclined to believe that Dems will hold this due to the fact that the incumbent R mayor of Annapolis lost by over 20%.

District 38: Mathias survived in 2014 even as Hogan romped here, and this is turning out to be a more favorable year to Democrats than 2014 was. Doesn't mean he could still lose though. I'm keeping it at tossup.

District 42 is gonna be another close race, but Democrats did get over 60% of the primary vote here. I'm inclined to think this is gonna be another district with a lot of ticket-splitting.

Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans pick up 1 seat or two. In fact, I think it might be more likely than not at this point, but you're underestimating Democratic enthusiasm, especially in Maryland, where while Hogan has done a good job at separating himself from Trump, I don't think that will largely translate to big R gains in the legislature, due to the nationalized climate.

Also, I have to agree with Virginia here. If you want to disagree with my ratings, be my guest, but keep things like "LOL UR WRONG" to yourself.

[Kleine Scheiße]

District 34: My home district. While Harford county Democrats are concentrated in the corridor stretching from Edgewood to Havre de Grace, the presence of Bel Air and Abingdon make this a safe seat for Cassilly. Aberdeen is modestly Democratic but hardly "solidly Dem." Trump did well there, and Hogan won all the major precincts in Aberdeen four years ago as well as in Havre de Grace. Former Del. Mary-Dulaney James is a stale name at this point. Solid R.

My district as well. Democratic presence in Havre de Grace is vastly overstated and where it does exist, turnout is generally dismal even in strong years. Edgewood and Aberdeen are the only genuine Democratic areas of Harford county. Lisanti, as such, is going to have a tough time hanging on to her seat.

34 is likely GOP. James' best hope is that Republican voters will stay home thinking the election has already been won -- Harford county Republicans don't tend to operate like that.

Hard to predict what the statewide margin will be between Hogan and Jealous but this much is certain: outside of Montgomery, Prince George's and Baltimore City (where there are zero competitive legislative races anyway) Hogan will utterly destroy Jealous... Maryland republicans are energized, love Hogan and most importantly, they GET. OUT. AND. VOTE.

That is far from certain. Hogan will likely win but he has few accomplishments to point to beyond rolling back things done by previous administrations. There is a strong conservative case to be made that Hogan has not done enough. Hogan is lucky that there was no conservative insurgency this year. The fact that so much of the Maryland political discourse still revolves around the O'Malley administration indicates more excitement about lower tolls and vague opposition to "liberalism" than the actual Hogan governorship. The excitement surrounding Hogan is essentially just excitement that O'Malley isn't governor anymore.

This is less an election about policy and more about personal branding; Hogan has effectively just cast himself as "not a liberal." I don't see that as being enough for Maryland republicans to get truly energized -- enough to win, sure, but even if he wins by strong margins around the state, many of those votes are reluctant. "He's alright," "he hasn't really damaged anything," "why not," "sure..."

[Bidenworth2020]

District 34: My home district. While Harford county Democrats are concentrated in the corridor stretching from Edgewood to Havre de Grace, the presence of Bel Air and Abingdon make this a safe seat for Cassilly. Aberdeen is modestly Democratic but hardly "solidly Dem." Trump did well there, and Hogan won all the major precincts in Aberdeen four years ago as well as in Havre de Grace. Former Del. Mary-Dulaney James is a stale name at this point. Solid R.

My district as well. Democratic presence in Havre de Grace is vastly overstated and where it does exist, turnout is generally dismal even in strong years. Edgewood and Aberdeen are the only genuine Democratic areas of Harford county. Lisanti, as such, is going to have a tough time hanging on to her seat.

34 is likely GOP. James' best hope is that Republican voters will stay home thinking the election has already been won -- Harford county Republicans don't tend to operate like that.

Hard to predict what the statewide margin will be between Hogan and Jealous but this much is certain: outside of Montgomery, Prince George's and Baltimore City (where there are zero competitive legislative races anyway) Hogan will utterly destroy Jealous... Maryland republicans are energized, love Hogan and most importantly, they GET. OUT. AND. VOTE.

That is far from certain. Hogan will likely win but he has few accomplishments to point to beyond rolling back things done by previous administrations. There is a strong conservative case to be made that Hogan has not done enough. Hogan is lucky that there was no conservative insurgency this year. The fact that so much of the Maryland political discourse still revolves around the O'Malley administration indicates more excitement about lower tolls and vague opposition to "liberalism" than the actual Hogan governorship. The excitement surrounding Hogan is essentially just excitement that O'Malley isn't governor anymore.

This is less an election about policy and more about personal branding; Hogan has effectively just cast himself as "not a liberal." I don't see that as being enough for Maryland republicans to get truly energized -- enough to win, sure, but even if he wins by strong margins around the state, many of those votes are reluctant. "He's alright," "he hasn't really damaged anything," "why not," "sure..."

looking at these EV numbers, Hogan is on Track to win by about 8. Hardly impressive, considering polls. And I actually plan to vote Hogan, so no "muh bias" here, lol.

[Virginiá]

Regardless of Hogan's win, Democrats are definitely below their legislative baseline in the state House after 2 bad midterms in a row. Historically-speaking, popular "managerial" Governors in hostile territory don't tend to transfer their popularity to anyone else. It isn't at all like presidential coattails.

[Timothy87]

Awesome thread, thanks for taking the time to put this together.

I feel like there's some upset potential in 29 (my district). The local political establishment is _pissed_ that Hogan shivved the incumbent Senator, who had pretty broad support and a good relationship with Pax - and the "independent Democrat" candidate, Thomas Brewer, seems to have a fair amount of grassroots support and a base in St. Mary's College. Probably won't be enough, but we'll see.

Hogan acolytes are hyping the fact that they need "only" five seats to break the supermajority (was this what Timothy87's posts were about?), but that's clearly not going to happen.

I've been hearing more about that race in recent days, and I learned that DDHQ recently moved that race from Likely R to Leans R. I'll move it to Likely R, just to be safe. I don't know too much about the politics of St. Mary's County other than it held onto its Democratic roots at the state level for a long time.

District 29: Safe R -> Likely R

Timothy87 if you want to debate someone on their ratings, do so respectfully, instead of some "LOL UR WRONG" claptrap. You are being rude for literally no reason at all.

(posts were deleted)

I didn't know there is censorship on this forum in the form of deleting comments that you don't like. Telling someone his predictions are laughable isn't disrespectful nor is it rude. Grow up.

To reiterate the poster of this thread was wrong about his "interesting fact" that the annual CPAC takes place at the Congressional Country Club in Montgomery County, MD. It in fact takes place at National Harbor in Prince George's County, but I get pointing out someone's mistake is "rude" and "disrespectful" to you Democrats

It was an honest mistake. I didn't see the post, so I can't comment on if it was rude or not.

My exact words were "LOL your ratings are laughable", because they did in fact make me laugh out loud, quite literally. I appreciated the levity.  I will elaborate on my disagreements with your rankings.

The context: Hard to predict what the statewide margin will be between Hogan and Jealous but this much is certain: outside of Montgomery, Prince George's and Baltimore City (where there are zero competitive legislative races anyway) Hogan will utterly destroy Jealous. Your analysis could be plausible only if a weak, Trumpian Republican were running against an incumbent Democrat or in an open race. That is not the case. Maryland republicans are energized, love Hogan and most importantly, they GET. OUT. AND. VOTE.

District 3: Lean Dem. Given that Young narrowly won in 2014, and that this portion of Frederick County has picked up even more Democrats since, this is easily the toughest of the five seats Republicans are targeting. I think with Hogan leading the way Giangrande has a change, but I could see Young winning by 1-5%

District 6: Solid Hogan country in my father's hometown. Dems will pick up nothing here but the margins could be closer than you'd think due to the "old" Dem nature of Dundalk.

Districts 8 and 9: These ratings I find to be very imaginative. You rated 8 as "solid Dem" and 9 as a "toss up" despite the fact that Gail Bates performed better in her seat 4 years ago than Klausmeier did in hers. 66% versus 62%. With strong Republicans Hogan and Kittleman running in Howard, I don't see Bates in danger whatsoever. The fact that Clinton won this district means nothing. Maryland votes quite differently at the federal versus state level, but also if not for the disgust with Trump by more affluent, educated Republicans, she would not have carried this seat. (Howard County was where Szeliga outperformed Trump the most, losing by 26 instead of 34.

To further drive this point home, in 2014 Gail Bates won 33k votes despite only 24k republicans voting. Her Dem opponent Frederic won only 17k votes, underperforming the 19.6k democrats who voted. She clearly has broad appeal.

With regards to district 8, Klausmeier is in so much danger, she's mailing campaign fliers bragging about her working with Hogan (as is Jim Mathias). She drew the strongest challenger possible, my friend Del. Christian Miele, who as a first time candidate drew the most votes in the HoD races in 2014. Hogan will romp in this district.

My opinion is District 8 is a toss up. District 9 is likely to safe R.

District 27. Hard to argue that Miller is the favorite. This power loving dinosaur has been president of the Senate since I was born. Calvert County has enormous GOP turnout in the primary despite there being no competitive races, which leads me to believe those voters are fired up and Hogan will romp in this area. I could see this being Miller's closest race in decades.

District 29: I think the concerns that the party grassroots "anger" at Hogan over the primary are a bit overblown since party grassroots are the ones who vote in primaries, and voted out Waugh. No county swung harder to Hogan than Saint Mary's. Safe R

District 30: Toss up/Lean R. Longtime Dem Sen. John Astle nearly lost four years ago. With a strong name like former Del. Ron George, an open seat, and Hogan romping in Anne Arundel County, this one looks good for a pick up.

District 33: Toss up!?! Seriously!? Again to be intellectually honest, how can you rate a seat so strongly Republican that no democrat even filed to run here in 2010 and 2014 a "toss up" yet districts 30 and 38 aren't toss ups? Safe R.

District 34: My home district. While Harford county Democrats are concentrated in the corridor stretching from Edgewood to Havre de Grace, the presence of Bel Air and Abingdon make this a safe seat for Cassilly. Aberdeen is modestly Democratic but hardly "solidly Dem." Trump did well there, and Hogan won all the major precincts in Aberdeen four years ago as well as in Havre de Grace. Former Del. Mary-Dulaney James is a stale name at this point. Solid R.

District 38: Toss-up/Leans R. Sen. Jim Mathias is in so much danger that he's touting his relationship with Hogan to save his re-election in campaign mailers. Hogan will destroy Jealous in the lower shore, and likely take out Mathias with strong candidate Del. Mary Beth Carozza. I don't read too much into early voting but Dem turnout is lagging the most in this part of the state.

District 42: Leans R. Tim Robinson nearly beat the very popular Sen. Jim Brochin four years ago. Brochin has long had crossover support due to not being a party line Democrat, and he endorsed Hogan. With this seat open Del. Chris West should have no trouble winning.

Overall, I expect republicans to pick up at worst two, at best five seats. The five seat pick up that Hogan and state republicans desire will be difficult, but it is not implausible. We'll find out in six days.

As for the House of Delegates, due to the extreme and insidious Democrat gerrymandering, Republicans are nearly maxed out there. The only realistic pic up opportunities for republicans are the third seat in district 8, district 31A, the second seat in district 34A and maybe an outside chance at district 27B. The weakest republican seats are districts 3B, 9B and 34A but with Hogan on the top of the ticket I doubt Democrats can make gains.

I'm not discounting the fact that Hogan will probably win by high single or even low double-digits, but remember that that's because Hogan is getting ~38% of Democrats to support him, and I expect most of those voters to split their tickets. Remember that Maryland still has a 2-1 Dem registration edge, and Hogan won 4 years ago because he managed to differentiate himself with the more conservative elements of his party.

I admit, some of my ratings might have been a been bullish on Democrats. I now think Rs are clearly favored in Districts 6, 33, and 34, and maybe District 3 is more vulnerable than I thought, DDHQ recently moved it to leans D, but I stand by my other ratings.


I don't know much about district 8, but I think the fact that this is a Dem-leaning year (aside from the governor's race, of course) and the fact that Klausmeier easily won in 2014 means that she's at least a slight favorite. Also, touting ability to work with the other party does not mean you're in deep trouble. If anything, it's a smart move in a situation where the governor of the opposing party is very popular. Not to mention that Democrats got over 60% of the primary vote there.

In district 9, Democrats didn't seriously challenge Bates in 2014. She now has a very serious challenger who's been attacking Bates for a voting record that has probably been too conservative for the district, like voting against free community college for people under a certain income bracket. I think Bates might still have a slight edge here, but I think it's gonna be her closest race ever.

Most of the population in District 27 is in midnight blue Prince George's County, and should easily outvote the Calvert part of the district. Coupled with the fact that Miller is the Senate President, and he should at least win by low double-digits.

I acknowledge that District 30 is gonna be a closely-fought battle, but I'm inclined to believe that Dems will hold this due to the fact that the incumbent R mayor of Annapolis lost by over 20%.

District 38: Mathias survived in 2014 even as Hogan romped here, and this is turning out to be a more favorable year to Democrats than 2014 was. Doesn't mean he could still lose though. I'm keeping it at tossup.

District 42 is gonna be another close race, but Democrats did get over 60% of the primary vote here. I'm inclined to think this is gonna be another district with a lot of ticket-splitting.

Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't be surprised if Republicans pick up 1 seat or two. In fact, I think it might be more likely than not at this point, but you're underestimating Democratic enthusiasm, especially in Maryland, where while Hogan has done a good job at separating himself from Trump, I don't think that will largely translate to big R gains in the legislature, due to the nationalized climate.

Also, I have to agree with Virginia here. If you want to disagree with my ratings, be my guest, but keep things like "LOL UR WRONG" to yourself.

Gail Bates was probably not seriously contested 4 years ago. I wouldn't expect her to get 66% again, but on the flip side of that coin, Kathy Klausmeier wasn't seriously challenged either. Erik Lofstad was kind of a joke. Her 62% or whatever percent was rather inflated, and especially because Hogan is so popular there and like I said, Christian Miele was the top vote getter in the HoD races despite being a first time candidate. That's why I say its a toss up.

I'd caution against looking at primary turnout to make ANY predictions about the general. Hogan was uncontested, and Dems had a wide open gubernatorial race, and in Baltimore County a MEGA competitive county executive race. The fact that Dem turnout was so much higher back in June isn't significant.

I am fully aware of the 2:1 Democratic advantage in the state, but almost all of that advantage is in the three jurisdictions of Montgomery and Prince George's counties, and Baltimore City, which as we both agree have zero competitive elections. The competitive legislative races are all in Republican/Hogan friendly turf.

in 38, Mary Beth Carrozza represents the Ocean City portion of the district, which will likely help mitigate Mathias' popularity there.

I will correct the record for the second time. I said "Lol your ratings are laughable" not "LOL UR WRONG." Why? Because your ratings literally made me laugh due to how utterly rosy they are for Democrats. This is an open forum. I did not hurl expletives, racial slurs/ insults or defamation so don't act like I did.

Looking forward to seeing how our predictions stack up come Wednesday.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Gail Bates was probably not seriously contested 4 years ago. I wouldn't expect her to get 66% again, but on the flip side of that coin, Kathy Klausmeier wasn't seriously challenged either. Erik Lofstad was kind of a joke. Her 62% or whatever percent was rather inflated, and especially because Hogan is so popular there and like I said, Christian Miele was the top vote getter in the HoD races despite being a first time candidate. That's why I say its a toss up.

I'd caution against looking at primary turnout to make ANY predictions about the general. Hogan was uncontested, and Dems had a wide open gubernatorial race, and in Baltimore County a MEGA competitive county executive race. The fact that Dem turnout was so much higher back in June isn't significant.

I am fully aware of the 2:1 Democratic advantage in the state, but almost all of that advantage is in the three jurisdictions of Montgomery and Prince George's counties, and Baltimore City, which as we both agree have zero competitive elections. The competitive legislative races are all in Republican/Hogan friendly turf.

in 38, Mary Beth Carrozza represents the Ocean City portion of the district, which will likely help mitigate Mathias' popularity there.

I will correct the record for the second time. I said "Lol your ratings are laughable" not "LOL UR WRONG." Why? Because your ratings literally made me laugh due to how utterly rosy they are for Democrats. This is an open forum. I did not hurl expletives, racial slurs/ insults or defamation so don't act like I did.

Looking forward to seeing how our predictions stack up come Wednesday.

Then we'll see. I expect Hogan to win by a decent margin, but I think the Dem-leanig environment will be a factor. Trump is radioactive in Maryland, and that's going to drive people out to vote, and while Hogan has created his own brand separate of the national party, the other candidates are not nearly as well known.

[Timothy87]

Do the Pubs really have any chance of taking down James Mathias? Who's their candidate? Seems like 2018 just isn't the year.

There's a very strong chance Mathias will lose. Mary Beth Carozza is a stronger candidate than 4 years ago and she represents Mathias' home base of Ocean City in the House of Delegates. Trump and Hogan are exceedingly popular in that area, and it's the one part of the state where Republicans beat Dems in EV turnout. At best for Mathias its a toss up.