Who’s going to be the Pat Toomey of 2018?

[MT Treasurer]

An overrated incumbent who leads in polls taken a year before the election and who we’re told is going to easily outperform their state's/district's lean/the environment and beat their absurdly weak opponent only to win narrowly on election day because of the national environment?

You can also do this for Blunt, Johnson, Ayotte, et al. if you want.

[Politician]

Toomey=McCaskill
Ayotte=Heitkamp (Atlas believes they're some unbeatable juggernaut only for them to narrowly lose on election day)
Johnson=Donnelly (Atlas writes this senator off only for them to win comfortably)
Burr=Nelson (Starts to run away with the race in October and wins by high single digits)
Rubio=Manchin (A seemingly vulnerable senator who wins by a lot against a weak opponent named Patrick)
McCain=Menendez (Seemingly vulnerable from day one, but wins by double digits in the end)
Portman=Brown (Seemingly favored to lose against a "strong opponent" but said opponent is extremely weak (or in Brown's case drops out) causing them to win a landslide)

[Xing]

I think Nelson fits the bill perfectly. Most people (including myself, embarrassingly) didn't think he'd be in danger in a neutral year, let alone a great year for Democrats. It seems like him winning by 1.5% is a pretty strong possibility. The only difference is that is seems like Nelson sunk in the polling average sooner than Toomey did. I think that parallels like this rarely ever work 100%, but if I had to pick:

Toomey = Nelson

Johnson = McCaskill (Minus the polling inaccuracies, of course. Feelings drive this race, and the incumbent is written off as dead way too soon.)

Burr = Tester (Similar to the Toomey/Nelson comparison, overrated incumbent considered safe early on, then the race gets more competitive as time goes on. The incumbent wins mostly due to a favorable environment.)

Ayotte = Heitkamp (Close race that bucks the national trend)

McCain = Manchin (Considered vulnerable early on, but the race becomes less competitive in the fall)

Portman = Brown (While the margin won't be the same this year, early polls showed the incumbent losing, causing Atlas to freak out, only for the incumbent to win easily)

Heck = Heller (I realize that I didn't reverse the parties here, but oh well. Republican odds are massively overrated throughout the cycle and Atlas eats it up, only for polls to (GASP) underestimate Democrats in Nevada)

Rubio = Sinema (Overrated empty suit defeats other overrated empty suit in a good year for their party)

[Ye We Can]

An overrated incumbent who leads in polls taken a year before the election and who we’re told is going to easily outperform their state's/district's lean/the environment and beat their absurdly weak opponent only to win narrowly on election day because of the national environment?

You can also do this for Blunt, Johnson, Ayotte, et al. if you want.

Like everybody on atlas thought Toomey was gonna crash and burn before the actual election

[Skye]

An overrated incumbent who leads in polls taken a year before the election and who we’re told is going to easily outperform their state's/district's lean/the environment and beat their absurdly weak opponent only to win narrowly on election day because of the national environment?

You can also do this for Blunt, Johnson, Ayotte, et al. if you want.

Like everybody on atlas thought Toomey was gonna crash and burn before the actual election

Yeah, like, it was pretty clear around mid-2016 that Toomey was very vulnerable and Trump's nomination only made his numbers even weaker.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

An overrated incumbent who leads in polls taken a year before the election and who we’re told is going to easily outperform their state's/district's lean/the environment and beat their absurdly weak opponent only to win narrowly on election day because of the national environment?

You can also do this for Blunt, Johnson, Ayotte, et al. if you want.

Like everybody on atlas thought Toomey was gonna crash and burn before the actual election

Yeah, like, it was pretty clear around mid-2016 that Toomey was very vulnerable and Trump's nomination only made his numbers even weaker.

Clinton was a flawed candidate and PA hasn't elected a statewide female, any Democratic nominee could have beaten Trump in PA aside from Hillary

[Xing]

An overrated incumbent who leads in polls taken a year before the election and who we’re told is going to easily outperform their state's/district's lean/the environment and beat their absurdly weak opponent only to win narrowly on election day because of the national environment?

You can also do this for Blunt, Johnson, Ayotte, et al. if you want.

Like everybody on atlas thought Toomey was gonna crash and burn before the actual election

Starting in August 2016, sure, but throughout 2015, people thought Toomey wasn't even vulnerable because he was leading by high single digits/low double digits. Many people thought Ohio was far more likely to flip than Pennsylvania.

[libertpaulian]

I think Nelson fits the bill perfectly. Most people (including myself, embarrassingly) didn't think he'd be in danger in a neutral year, let alone a great year for Democrats. It seems like him winning by 1.5% is a pretty strong possibility. The only difference is that is seems like Nelson sunk in the polling average sooner than Toomey did. I think that parallels like this rarely ever work 100%, but if I had to pick:

Toomey = Nelson

Johnson = McCaskill (Minus the polling inaccuracies, of course. Feelings drive this race, and the incumbent is written off as dead way too soon.)

Burr = Tester (Similar to the Toomey/Nelson comparison, overrated incumbent considered safe early on, then the race gets more competitive as time goes on. The incumbent wins mostly due to a favorable environment.)

Ayotte = Heitkamp (Close race that bucks the national trend)

McCain = Manchin (Considered vulnerable early on, but the race becomes less competitive in the fall)

Portman = Brown (While the margin won't be the same this year, early polls showed the incumbent losing, causing Atlas to freak out, only for the incumbent to win easily)

Heck = Heller (I realize that I didn't reverse the parties here, but oh well. Republican odds are massively overrated throughout the cycle and Atlas eats it up, only for polls to (GASP) underestimate Democrats in Nevada)

Rubio = Sinema (Overrated empty suit defeats other overrated empty suit in a good year for their party)

Where does Donnelly fit?

[NewYorkExpress]

Ted Cruz?

He really shouldn't be in danger by any stretch of the imagination, even in a D wave, but Beto O'Rourke is giving him the race of a lifetime.

If he doesn't lose here, and doesn't run for President in 2024, I don't see how he wins reelection then.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

An overrated incumbent who leads in polls taken a year before the election and who we’re told is going to easily outperform their state's/district's lean/the environment and beat their absurdly weak opponent only to win narrowly on election day because of the national environment?

You can also do this for Blunt, Johnson, Ayotte, et al. if you want.

Like everybody on atlas thought Toomey was gonna crash and burn before the actual election

Yeah, like, it was pretty clear around mid-2016 that Toomey was very vulnerable and Trump's nomination only made his numbers even weaker.

Clinton was a flawed candidate and PA hasn't elected a statewide female, any Democratic nominee could have beaten Trump in PA aside from Hillary

I know Democrats are trying to retrospectively erase Kathleen Kane, but nope.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well for Senate or Governor or President, neither has OH or FL

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Toomey=McCaskill
Ayotte=Heitkamp (Atlas believes they're some unbeatable juggernaut only for them to narrowly lose on election day)
Johnson=Donnelly (Atlas writes this senator off only for them to win comfortably)
Burr=Nelson(Starts to run away with the race in October and wins by high single digits)
Rubio=Manchin (A seemingly vulnerable senator who wins by a lot against a weak opponent named Patrick)
McCain=Menendez (Seemingly vulnerable from day one, but wins by double digits in the end)
Portman=Brown (Seemingly favored to lose against a "strong opponent" but said opponent is extremely weak (or in Brown's case drops out) causing them to win a landslide)

Nelson fits this bill perfectly

also lol, and LMAO.

[Xing]

I think Nelson fits the bill perfectly. Most people (including myself, embarrassingly) didn't think he'd be in danger in a neutral year, let alone a great year for Democrats. It seems like him winning by 1.5% is a pretty strong possibility. The only difference is that is seems like Nelson sunk in the polling average sooner than Toomey did. I think that parallels like this rarely ever work 100%, but if I had to pick:

Toomey = Nelson

Johnson = McCaskill (Minus the polling inaccuracies, of course. Feelings drive this race, and the incumbent is written off as dead way too soon.)

Burr = Tester (Similar to the Toomey/Nelson comparison, overrated incumbent considered safe early on, then the race gets more competitive as time goes on. The incumbent wins mostly due to a favorable environment.)

Ayotte = Heitkamp (Close race that bucks the national trend)

McCain = Manchin (Considered vulnerable early on, but the race becomes less competitive in the fall)

Portman = Brown (While the margin won't be the same this year, early polls showed the incumbent losing, causing Atlas to freak out, only for the incumbent to win easily)

Heck = Heller (I realize that I didn't reverse the parties here, but oh well. Republican odds are massively overrated throughout the cycle and Atlas eats it up, only for polls to (GASP) underestimate Democrats in Nevada)

Rubio = Sinema (Overrated empty suit defeats other overrated empty suit in a good year for their party)

Where does Donnelly fit?

I couldn't really find a good parallel. Probably somewhere between Ayotte and Johnson.

[Bidenworth2020]

I wouldnt say its fair to say the environment carried toomey. after all, he and trumps wnning maps were totally different (especially in margins.)