What am I missing here? False optimism

[MillennialModerate]

Someone want to enlighten me here. The media seems to be all over the idea that the tide is shifting and that the wave is getting bigger and that the Senate is very much in play now. But am I missing something or are the Senate polls actually trending in the GOP direction?

NV and AZ seemed destined for Likely Dems when polls have them tilt GOP, Tennessee was looking primed for a Dem upset and now is shifting back to a brainless*  GOP vote, North Dakota is going more red by the day, In Indiana appeared as if Joe D would hold firm and now it’s Tilt GOP....Florida should be a Dem hold all things considered but once again the GOP is holding their ground in that race as well. The only race that seems to be shifting toward the Dems is in Texas and that’s fools gold as we know, another case of too little too late in the lone star state.

I think Democrats, Indepndents and Reasonable Republicans (aka NT’s) are going to be terribly disappointed in the the results in the Senate. I think you’re going to see Dems Win the popular vote quite comfortably, win the house by a little bit (5-10 seats) but lose 2-3 seats in the Senate.

[BundouYMB]

It's September. When you look at the last few midterm waves (2014, 2010, 2006...) races that were on a knife's edge in September almost all went to the party having the "wave". The polls got worse for the President's party in all three of those elections between September and election day. Yes, that doesn't necessarily mean it will happen this year, but it's what happened in the last couple midterms and if it happens again then Democrats will take the Senate.

And here's something else to consider: even if we discount that, there's a lot of other reasons to think things could get worse for Republicans before election day. For example, I remember reading an article breaking down how the damage from the trade war would really start showing up in... October. There's also the possibility of the Russian investigation getting worse for Trump before November.

I can think of a lot of reasons why things might be even worse for Republicans by election day. On the other hand, I can't think of even one reason why things might get better for them.

Edit: to tl;dr my point, if the election was today I would agree with you, but it's not. And there are an awful lot of ticking time bombs under the Republicans right now.

[libertpaulian]

It's September. When you look at the last few midterm waves (2014, 2010, 2006...) races that were on a knife's edge in September almost all went to the party having the "wave". The polls got worse for the President's party in all three of those elections between September and election day. Yes, that doesn't necessarily mean it will happen this year, but it's what happened in the last couple midterms and if it happens again then Democrats will take the Senate.

And here's something else to consider: even if we discount that, there's a lot of other reasons to think things could get worse for Republicans before election day. For example, I remember reading an article breaking down how the damage from the trade war would really start showing up in... October. There's also the possibility of the Russian investigation getting worse for Trump before November.

I can think of a lot of reasons why things might be even worse for Republicans by election day. On the other hand, I can't think of even one reason why things might get better for them.

Edit: to tl;dr my point, if the election was today I would agree with you, but it's not. And there are an awful lot of ticking time bombs under the Republicans right now.

Don't forget Kavanaugh.

[Senator Incitatus]

It's September. When you look at the last few midterm waves (2014, 2010, 2006...) races that were on a knife's edge in September almost all went to the party having the "wave". The polls got worse for the President's party in all three of those elections between September and election day. Yes, that doesn't necessarily mean it will happen this year, but it's what happened in the last couple midterms and if it happens again then Democrats will take the Senate.

And here's something else to consider: even if we discount that, there's a lot of other reasons to think things could get worse for Republicans before election day. For example, I remember reading an article breaking down how the damage from the trade war would really start showing up in... October. There's also the possibility of the Russian investigation getting worse for Trump before November.

I can think of a lot of reasons why things might be even worse for Republicans by election day. On the other hand, I can't think of even one reason why things might get better for them.

Edit: to tl;dr my point, if the election was today I would agree with you, but it's not. And there are an awful lot of ticking time bombs under the Republicans right now.

Don't forget Kavanaugh.

Really not certain the Court as an issue is going to hurt Republican candidates politically, except probably Hugin and maybe Cruz. Consider the possibilities:

• 1. The seat is filled by election day, effectively neutering the Supreme Court as an issue at the ballot box. This probably further fuels a Democratic turnout advantage. But this option also seems increasingly unlikely by the hour.
• 2. The seat is still not filled and Kavanaugh is still the nominee. Red state Democrats will have to persuade at least some voters who prefer a conservative Court that the allegations are credible and serious enough to block his nomination.
• 3. The seat is still not filled and Kavanaugh is no longer the nominee. Now, not only do the red state Democrats have to persuade those same voters, but they have to do so on strictly ideological lines. The conservatives are energized to get the new nominee confirmed, and red state Senate Democrats will have to publicly take tough positions on the nomination.

I think option 1 is the most preferable for Senate Democrats and given these allegations, it no longer seems like a real likelihood.

[Xing]

Since when are the Nevada polls "tilt GOP"? Exactly two polls in the entire cycle have shown Heller ahead, both by 1%. The most recent poll showing him up 1 was in July, and the firm which conducted that poll (Suffolk) now shows Rosen ahead by 1. Polls have shown between Heller +1 and Rosen +6, with the most recent polls showing a slight lead for Rosen. And in case you've missed my lecture series on the "accuracy" of Nevada polling, a brief SparkNotes description is available for your viewing pleasure below.

As for Arizona, some of us knew (shoutout to IceSpear, among others) that polling would tighten once McSally locked up the nomination. And if we just look at the most recent polls, we see McSally +3, McSally +1, Sinema +3, and Sinema +4. Not sure how you get "tilt GOP" from those numbers either.

Florida, if anything, has moved in favor of the Democrats, as Scott was leading in several polls before Labor Day, and now polls show the race pretty much tied. As for North Dakota and Indiana, well, we have very few polls to go by, and the fact that we got one Donnelly +6 poll and then a Braun +2 poll doesn't mean that the race trended 8 points to the right in a week, it means that we need more polls.

Overall, it's hard to argue Democrats are headed in a bad direction when they've surged to a near double digit lead in the GCB, Trump's approval ratings have been sinking, and the news hasn't been the best for Republicans lately. It's possible that it could be a disappointing night for Democrats, but the polls really aren't suggesting that right now.

[Virginiá]

AZ and TN polls released today may go a bit contrary to what you are saying

-

Edit: Just a reminder:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-2018-senate-elections-are-looking-bad-for-both-parties/

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Regardless of how bad the Senate map seems, or the state of the polls, it would actually be really unusual for Democrats to lose a bunch of seats (2 - 3 can be considered "a bunch") in this kind of election, or to even fail to gain any, given the leanings of AZ/NV.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Polls after Labor Day are more accurate than Summer polls that tend to be more Democratic friendly.  Also, polls tend to fluxuate up and down, depending on the stormy, just like the McCain funeral and the Kavanaugh story, we are getting to the tail end of things, and polls will get tighter

[TarHeelDem]

-Dems are surging in the GCB, knocking on the double digit mark.
-Trump is struggling to hit 40% approval and it's possible he could slip further before election day.
-The opposition senator stat Virginia shared is significant and terribly underreported. GOP will be very lucky if they're able to pick off even one Dem incumbent. (See libertpaulian's point about "knife's edge races" going vastly one way or the other in midterm wave elections.)
-Dems are ahead in Tennessee and only about 2.5% behind in Texas, with the wind in Beto's sails and certainly not Cruz's.