If you could see the final results for any Congressional race

[emcee0]

If you could look into a crystal ball and find out the final results of one House and one Senate race what key race would you want to look at?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

WV Senate and Ohio 1st.

[aaroncd107]

For Senate i’d look at Texas. The Republicans are not winning the Senate unless they have Texas, and it is too close for anyone to be comfortable.

For House, i’d probably say Nebraska or Maine 2nd district.

[BBD]

WV-03 and FL-SEN.

[Xing]

I'd pick races that were more indicative of the national environment, rather than ones that have special circumstances which could allow them to buck the trend.

Senate: AZ-SEN
House: NY-19

[I’m not Stu]

Senate: AZ-SEN
House: CA-8

[Pericles]

Looking at 538's Senate forecast, it's a close race for the tipping-point Senate race. GOP chances seem overrated in Florida and Nevada IMO, and Texas is a weird race, so I'll go with North Dakota. If Heitkamp wins it's a good sign that Democrats are holding their seats and have a path to a majority, if she loses then Republicans likely will have the majority again. The margin will be worth looking at too.

For House, it's a tough choice. If Republicans win TX-23, maybe it's just poor Hispanic turnout, if they win in a suburban district they may be doing worse in WWC districts and vice-versa. Still gut choice went CA-48, 538 and The Crosstab both say it could be a tipping point and it is close in the NYT poll. I made sure to pick one with an incumbent to account for incumbency effect since a limitation of special elections as an indicator is that they are open seats.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

TX-32, MO-SEN

[politicallefty]

I was a bit undecided between ND-Sen and MO-Sen, but I'd probably go with ND-Sen. I think if we win there, we have a very strong chance of winning a majority in the Senate.

With the House, I think it's only a question of how big the Democratic Majority will be. Will it be a wave of around a 30 seat gain or a tsunami of something like 45+? I want to cheat and pick two. I'd say CA-45 and IL-12. They both seem to be relatively inoffensive for their districts. CA-45 was a pretty good Romney district, but shifted hard to Clinton (CA-48 might be more Republican, but Rohrabacher has more issues himself). If it falls, you're probably counting on one hand how many Clinton-Republican districts remain after the election. As for IL-12, if it falls I think it signals a lot of Trump voters are staying home, which is especially bad for Republicans in an Obama-Trump district such as that. If both go Democratic, I think it's a lot closer to tsunami than wave.

[mencken]

CA-48

[Brittain33]

ND and CA-45 (I think this is Mimi Walters’s district)

[Politician]

ND-SEN and KY-06.

[libertpaulian]

IN-SEN and CA-48.

[😥]

FL-Sen and WV-03

[politicallefty]

ND and CA-45 (I think this is Mimi Walters’s district)

Yeah, that's right. Basically, my picks if I hadn't hedged/cheated on the House pick.

[Brittain33]

ND and CA-45 (I think this is Mimi Walters’s district)

Yeah, that's right. Basically, my picks if I hadn't hedged/cheated on the House pick.

The thing with ND is that if Heitkamp wins, it isn't necessarily indicative of *anything* in any other state, but so much rides on whether Dems keep that seat or not that I want to know. Missouri is probably better as a bellwether that applies to other states.

[politicallefty]

ND and CA-45 (I think this is Mimi Walters’s district)

Yeah, that's right. Basically, my picks if I hadn't hedged/cheated on the House pick.

The thing with ND is that if Heitkamp wins, it isn't necessarily indicative of *anything* in any other state, but so much rides on whether Dems keep that seat or not that I want to know. Missouri is probably better as a bellwether that applies to other states.

I kind of agree with you, but I think it's a test of a strong Democratic incumbent running in a very Republican state. Basically, we're not winning the Senate without North Dakota. But I know what you mean when it comes to Heitkamp personally. Retail politics matters in a state like North Dakota. I feel like a state like ND is harder to poll, so I'm more nervous about it. I'm nervous about McCaskill too, but she's not running too bad in the numbers. I think the national environment could carry her regardless.

[President Johnson]

Texas-23, because it may be an indicator how Beto performed. Hope Gina Ortiz Jones wins by a fair margin. She seems to be a great candidate.

[Nyvin]

TX-Sen

[Rhenna]

TN-Sen, IL-12

[MT Treasurer]

IN-SEN or MT-SEN
IA-01

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

TN Senate
ME-2

[Kodak]

TN-SEN and either CA-50 or NY-27.

[TarHeelDem]

TN-Sen, which I expect to be the state that locks down the majority for the Democrats.

[mcmikk]

ND-SEN and I don't care about individual House races as much.