The odds of a Democratic Senate by Halloween?
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  The odds of a Democratic Senate by Halloween?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: in relationship to today.
#1
The odds will increase		  
#2
about the same		  
#3
The odds will decrease		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 72

Author Topic: The odds of a Democratic Senate by Halloween?  (Read 1067 times)
°Leprechaun
tmcusa2
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« on: September 16, 2018, 11:33:16 AM »
22 day poll, so you can wait, or vote and then change your vote later.

The odds seem low today, but they have increased over time, so they may change by 10-31
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2018, 11:36:52 AM »
I honestly have no clue, but Imma take a shot in the dark and guess slightly more because I think there may be an october surprise or two that will help us out a bit.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2018, 11:49:12 AM »
I'm going to say they'll decrease, insofar as most people's odds (and for example the odds in 538's model) depend strongly on the idea that TX-SEN is actually competitive and that Beto has some sort of reasonable chance to win it.

It's likely that reality will set in sooner or later. Although, it must be said, the thing about delusion - especially mass delusion - is it has a way of persisting against all rational argument and evidence.
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2018, 11:59:14 AM »
are you expecting party-switchers before the election?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2018, 03:01:33 PM »
TN, TX, MS, ND, IN and MO swing
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Brittain33
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2018, 03:54:22 PM »
Quote from: shua on September 16, 2018, 11:59:14 AM
are you expecting party-switchers before the election?

I expect polling trends will change how we look at some races by then.

For example, MT could become more competitive, and TN could become less competitive.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2018, 06:27:23 PM »
President Trump is doing nothing to help Republicans to hold onto the Senate/
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aaroncd107
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2018, 06:43:38 PM »
I think Republicans will be 55/45 or 60/40 favorites, as ND moves toward Rs ever so slightly, and TX, NV, AZ trend D. Generic ballot will be D+10-11, Kavanaugh will be seated, and the release of the pee tape on the aniversary of the AH tape will have no effect on anything at all.
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jfern
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« Reply #8 on: September 16, 2018, 07:24:34 PM »
Quote from: shua on September 16, 2018, 11:59:14 AM
are you expecting party-switchers before the election?

What the OP asked and what the OP meant to ask are probably 2 different things here.
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Orser67
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« Reply #9 on: September 16, 2018, 11:16:25 PM »
I think that Democrats will start polling better in FL. I also think it's somewhat more likely than not that Trump's approval ratings drop in the next two months after some of the Mueller stuff of the last couple days. So I voted better odds.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2018, 03:35:36 PM »
Win TN,AZ,NV and lose ND, IN or MT and you will have a Democratic senate plus a MS run-off
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2018, 03:57:56 PM »
They will increase, quite dramatically in fact.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2018, 04:22:59 PM »
Decrease significantly.

FL goes Tilt R
TN, ND, IN all become likely R
TX becomes Safe R

Everything else is the same.
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