So what exactly happens if the Democrats take back the House?
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  So what exactly happens if the Democrats take back the House?
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Author Topic: So what exactly happens if the Democrats take back the House?  (Read 1150 times)
Cyrusman
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« on: September 14, 2018, 11:33:38 PM »

A lot of people are hyping up this mid terms to be bigger and more important than any other mid term. Why is that? Let’s say the Democrats take back the House, what exactly happens?

The reason I’m asking this is because it’s not uncommon by any means for the president who’s in office to have a the opposite party control the house. If anything right now having a republican house, president, and senate is rare.
Reagon had a Democratic House
Bill Clinton had a republican house
George w Bush had a Democratic House for the last couple years
Barack Obama had a republican controlled house for 6 years

So let’s Trump has to work with a democratic controlled house. What happens? What’s different than other presidents?
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Greedo punched first
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« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2018, 11:51:16 PM »

Trump would be subject to congressional investigations.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #2 on: September 15, 2018, 12:05:50 AM »

Gridlock. Trump election increased already skyhigh partisanship even further, and improved position of "true believers" in BOTH parties above already existing very high level. So, both parties will continue to be "even more purer", with predictable result.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2018, 12:13:34 AM »

Trump would be subject to congressional investigations.

This is the primary concern.

I think people have forgotten how much scandal there has been with Trump's administration. That is in large part because Congressional Republicans have refused to seriously conduct oversight of him. Even the Russia investigation in the House was infected and destroyed by partisanship from the day it started to when it prematurely ended. There are like 2+ dozen scandals that will generate a tsunami of subpoenas and high-profile public testimonies that is going to bring his administration to a halt. They still don't have nearly the kind of staff they need to handle that level of scrutiny and paperwork.

So yeah, this might seem kind of routine, given past presidents, but it isn't with Trump. The next 2 years (if Democrats flip the House) is going to be nothing but investigation after investigation, and that will probably keep Trump weak for 2020, if not hurt him more. Remember, a never-ending Benghazi investigation is what ended up revealing Clinton's emails, which triggered an FBI investigation and dogged her to the end. Who knows what could come of all these potential investigations into Trump's administration.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2018, 12:20:11 AM »

It would be the end of Trump's presidency because won't be able to get anything passed
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jfern
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« Reply #5 on: September 15, 2018, 12:25:55 AM »

Trump would be subject to congressional investigations.

This is the primary concern.

I think people have forgotten how much scandal there has been with Trump's administration. That is in large part because Congressional Republicans have refused to seriously conduct oversight of him. Even the Russia investigation in the House was infected and destroyed by partisanship from the day it started to when it prematurely ended. There are like 2+ dozen scandals that will generate a tsunami of subpoenas and high-profile public testimonies that is going to bring his administration to a halt. They still don't have nearly the kind of staff they need to handle that level of scrutiny and paperwork.

So yeah, this might seem kind of routine, given past presidents, but it isn't with Trump. The next 2 years (if Democrats flip the House) is going to be nothing but investigation after investigation, and that will probably keep Trump weak for 2020, if not hurt him more. Remember, a never-ending Benghazi investigation is what ended up revealing Clinton's emails, which triggered an FBI investigation and dogged her to the end. Who knows what could come of all these potential investigations into Trump's administration.

Pelosi didn't do sh**t to stand up to the Bush administration war criminals.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #6 on: September 15, 2018, 12:28:34 AM »

Pelosi didn't do sh**t to stand up to the Bush administration war criminals.

Are you actually suggesting they aren't going to investigate anything? Or just throwing that tidbit out there?

Because I think that would be the first time I saw someone imply they aren't going to investigate Trump, tbh. Democrats have been eager for this for a long time now. Don't be so jaded.
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TML
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« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2018, 12:30:23 AM »

If Trump placates Democrats to any significant extent, he may be able to get reelected.

If he continues to refuse to work with them, his chances of getting reelected will be small.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2018, 12:56:05 AM »

Trump is in trouble with ethnic minorities and women, the Dems aren't gonna lie down and let him be reflected regardless if they control the chamber, but his chances of being removed are small, as well as his chances of being reelected
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Orser67
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« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2018, 01:38:12 AM »

The important part is no legislation + congressional investigations of Trump. I actually agree that this isn't the most important midterm ever, though.

Reagon had a Democratic House
Bill Clinton had a republican house
George w Bush had a Democratic House for the last couple years
Barack Obama had a republican controlled house for 6 years

Reagan was able to pass legislation from 1981-1982 because a large number of conservative Southern Democrats favored his agenda. It was a different time.

When Democrats took the House in 2006, it wasn't really that important because the Republican program had kind of petered out after six years (which is normal).

On the other hand, Republicans taking the House in 1994 and 2010 was a huge deal and it did have important policy consequences.
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Beet
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« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2018, 02:08:32 AM »

The most important thing is that there would be some check and balance on the president. Right now the opposition is totally shut out although the president is rather polarizing. This means that even if politicians or officials don't like what Trump is doing, they're unwilling to oppose him because doing so would seem to go against the will of voters. If the Democrats took one branch of government, there would be some accountability towards his actions.

It would also have some effect on Trump. I believe he's open to some more Democratic-leaning ideas, in the 2000s he was open to single payer health care, and the head of Newsmax even suggested it at one point. He also wants a infrastructure bill which dovetails more with Democratic priorities. But he's afraid to move too far to the center for fear of alienating the House Republicans, whose support he needs. So he has to hew towards Republican orthodoxy even though he's not really an orthodox Republican. A Democratic House would free him up a little bit, to cut deals with the Democrats if he wants, similar to Bill Clinton 1996.
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jfern
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« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2018, 03:06:06 AM »

Pelosi didn't do sh**t to stand up to the Bush administration war criminals.

Are you actually suggesting they aren't going to investigate anything? Or just throwing that tidbit out there?

Because I think that would be the first time I saw someone imply they aren't going to investigate Trump, tbh. Democrats have been eager for this for a long time now. Don't be so jaded.

Well, I hope they have substantive investigations, and not this idiotic Russia sh**t. They've already beaten the Republicans' Benghazi there. Investigate him for corruption, or treatment of undocumented children, or handling Hurricane Maria, or his handling of ObamaCare, but not idiotic sh**t.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2018, 04:09:16 AM »

Pelosi didn't do sh**t to stand up to the Bush administration war criminals.

Are you actually suggesting they aren't going to investigate anything? Or just throwing that tidbit out there?

Because I think that would be the first time I saw someone imply they aren't going to investigate Trump, tbh. Democrats have been eager for this for a long time now. Don't be so jaded.

Well, I hope they have substantive investigations, and not this idiotic Russia sh**t. They've already beaten the Republicans' Benghazi there. Investigate him for corruption, or treatment of undocumented children, or handling Hurricane Maria, or his handling of ObamaCare, but not idiotic sh**t.
At this point it has to be Russia. There’s been too much hype to not investigate it. Other things can be investigated of course, but Russia is the big one.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2018, 04:14:58 AM »

Pelosi didn't do sh**t to stand up to the Bush administration war criminals.

Are you actually suggesting they aren't going to investigate anything? Or just throwing that tidbit out there?

Because I think that would be the first time I saw someone imply they aren't going to investigate Trump, tbh. Democrats have been eager for this for a long time now. Don't be so jaded.

Well, I hope they have substantive investigations, and not this idiotic Russia sh**t. They've already beaten the Republicans' Benghazi there. Investigate him for corruption, or treatment of undocumented children, or handling Hurricane Maria, or his handling of ObamaCare, but not idiotic sh**t.
At this point it has to be Russia. There’s been too much hype to not investigate it. Other things can be investigated of course, but Russia is the big one.

Yeah, and this becomes boring. One can think, that we are not only the main "villains" on Earth, but the only one too....))))
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2018, 04:56:50 AM »

Pelosi didn't do sh**t to stand up to the Bush administration war criminals.

Are you actually suggesting they aren't going to investigate anything? Or just throwing that tidbit out there?

Because I think that would be the first time I saw someone imply they aren't going to investigate Trump, tbh. Democrats have been eager for this for a long time now. Don't be so jaded.

Well, I hope they have substantive investigations, and not this idiotic Russia sh**t. They've already beaten the Republicans' Benghazi there. Investigate him for corruption, or treatment of undocumented children, or handling Hurricane Maria, or his handling of ObamaCare, but not idiotic sh**t.

Poor jfern is still living in denial. Sad!

There's nothing idiotic about a foreign adversary hijacking our elections and undermining our democracy. I don't expect you to care about that though since your sole intention of dismissing anything Russia related is because you don't want to accept that she lost for any other reason other than neoliberal warmongering something something corporatist blah blah blah.

Yeah, if we want to look at attacks to our elections, we should rather be investigating Debbie Wasserman Schultz and the DNC, right? They're clearly bigger threats than Russia ever will be! Putin said he didn't do it so let's move on! True "progressive" jfern mimicking crazy man in the White House's poop tweets.
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jfern
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« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2018, 05:31:10 AM »

Pelosi didn't do sh**t to stand up to the Bush administration war criminals.

Are you actually suggesting they aren't going to investigate anything? Or just throwing that tidbit out there?

Because I think that would be the first time I saw someone imply they aren't going to investigate Trump, tbh. Democrats have been eager for this for a long time now. Don't be so jaded.

Well, I hope they have substantive investigations, and not this idiotic Russia sh**t. They've already beaten the Republicans' Benghazi there. Investigate him for corruption, or treatment of undocumented children, or handling Hurricane Maria, or his handling of ObamaCare, but not idiotic sh**t.

Poor jfern is still living in denial. Sad!

There's nothing idiotic about a foreign adversary hijacking our elections and undermining our democracy. I don't expect you to care about that though since your sole intention of dismissing anything Russia related is because you don't want to accept that she lost for any other reason other than neoliberal warmongering something something corporatist blah blah blah.

Yeah, if we want to look at attacks to our elections, we should rather be investigating Debbie Wasserman Schultz and the DNC, right? They're clearly bigger threats than Russia ever will be! Putin said he didn't do it so let's move on! True "progressive" jfern mimicking crazy man in the White House's poop tweets.

What the Democratic party did has been proven. I don't give a sh**t about a few Russian bots when there were way more Correct The Record bots turning the Internet into a cesspool. The Clintons bragged about influencing the 1996 Russian election while China influenced our election that year. They are the world's biggest hypocrites.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2018, 07:23:41 AM »

Per a 1924 law, the chairpersons of the House Ways and Means Committee, the Senate Finance Committee, and the Joint Committee on Taxation each have the right to request any individual's tax returns for committee review, including the President's.  If the Democrats take the House, the Ways and Means Committee will certainly request Trump's.  Considering the lengths that Trump has gone to in order to hide them, these very likely contain information that's incriminating or at least very damaging to him.
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Aurelio21
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« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2018, 07:39:37 AM »
« Edited: September 15, 2018, 12:07:49 PM by Aurelio21 »

I would not say that our beloved Duce Trump will definitely be investigated. There are 3 basic scenarios:

A) Dems win the House by less then 10 seats(223 to 212), Pubs keep the Senate / extend their lead there
B) Dems win the House by more then 10 seats, Pubs keep the Senate
C) Dems win the House by more then 20 seats, and win the Senate /Tie the senate, and S.Collins or L.Murkowski scared to Death switch to Independent before being harrassed by the P-in-Chief

A) There are several new Congressmen- and women which avowed not electing Nancy Pelosi. To be fair, Mrs. Pelosi is maybe the only person which could keep the bunch of fleas better known as the Democratic caucus together.
The ensueing chaos has only one benefactor. Mattis and Sessions will immediately be fired on 11/8 , or does anybody believe in the lip services of Cornyn et al? Trump only cares about his base, as long as he delivers (Tax-Breaks mainly for himself and his buddies, appointing judges which have no problem with texan educational textbooks omitting Evolution theory, Thomas Jefferson and Hillary Clinton for the evangelicals, trade war show fights for WWC) and he will be fine.
Fox News will successfully feast on painting the Democrats as "Chaoutic Commie Socialists" by featuring Ocasio-Cortez. The perfect scapegoat for raising the re-election chances for Trump. This may deliver a precedence: Simply ignoring investigations of congress cancels out the oversight by Congress.

Chances of Re-Election raise to 80 %.

B) Nancy Pelosi will be re-elected. She and her justice committee chairman will avoid instigating Impeachment, at least for now. Some investigations will be instigated. Trump keeps ignoring reality, as the senate will go overtime as clearly time runs out on Jan 7th 2020 and literally appoint anything to tenure positions.  Mattis and Sessions still will be fired, yet the confirmation hearings won't be a pleasure. Depending on the candidate Collins and maybe Murkowski will get the "Julia Banks" treatment as long as there is a 51+ Rep majority.  

If she really is as shrewd as claimed, she would force pro-Labor pro WWC-class , pro-army veteran and pro-retiree legislation. This will not pass, yet will split off a considerable amount of WWC in the Mid-West. Still, the chances of Trump being re-elected are about 35 % as long as the economy keeps the pace thanks to the "obstructionist Democratic house" which is for all to blame including Hurricane Florence and foot fungus.

C) Trump keeps Mattis and Sessions to be kicked around as even to Trump is clear a AG Rosenstein would be even worse.  Nancy Pelosi will not need any sly manouvers. Maybe she will try passing with Chuck Shumer a 15$-minimum-wage-bill forcing Trump to veto it. In this scenario, Beto and/or Bredesen would be new Senators. This scares the remaining Rep senators up for Re-Election to Death, as except for Wyoming and South Dakota all their jobs are at stake, and a President Pence does not sound bad at all. Fox News agrees, and invites Stormy Daniels making impeachment inevitable. But do not underestimate the emotional intelligence of Trump as his newly appointed judges may not disappoint him and declare Impeachment unconstitutional.
 Re-Election Chances at 10 %, the 10 % include the chance of republican dominated legislatures chosing the electors themselves instead of a statewide popular election. Or re-instituting compulsory genetic identity tests with grandfather clauses for whites. ;-)
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Virginiá
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« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2018, 11:31:40 AM »

Well, I hope they have substantive investigations, and not this idiotic Russia sh**t. They've already beaten the Republicans' Benghazi there. Investigate him for corruption, or treatment of undocumented children, or handling Hurricane Maria, or his handling of ObamaCare, but not idiotic sh**t.

This is everything Democrats have been trying to investigate since Trump took office:

https://www.axios.com/2018-midterm-elections-republicans-preparation-investigations-180abf7b-0de8-4670-ae8a-2e6da123c584.html

Which obviously doesn't include the next 2 year's worth of scandals. Russia will probably be the headliner, at least for a while. But I kind of expect that all those non-Russia scandals on the list will do more damage in the long run.
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