How will Gillum poll in Volusia County?

[Sumner 1868]

?

[Donerail]

DeSantis 49%, Gillum 47%

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

DeSantis 48-50
Gillum 46-48

[Fuzzy Bear]

I believe Gillum will narrowly carry Volusia County. 

Obama carried it twice and it has a significant black vote.

[libertpaulian]

If Gillum wins Volusia, both he and Nelson have won.

[Senator-elect Spark]

DeSantis 49%
Gillum 47%

[Rookie Yinzer]

Gillum 49%
Clown 49%

[mencken]

This is in DeSantis's home district. He won it by 13 in 2014 (when Scott won by 4) and 2016 (when Trump won by 13) and by 3 in 2012 (when Romney won by 1). DeSantis probably wins it by high single digits.

[Donerail]

This is in DeSantis's home district. He won it by 13 in 2014 (when Scott won by 4) and 2016 (when Trump won by 13) and by 3 in 2012 (when Romney won by 1). DeSantis probably wins it by high single digits.

Yes, though it's important to note that Volusia proper has never been part of DeSantis's base -- he is a resident of St. John's, which is mostly Jax suburbs, while Volusia is Orlando-aligned. When he won the seat in 2012, he underperformed in Volusia, as part of a broader north-south divide in the primary results -- DeSantis and school board member Bev Slough split votes in the larger north, while former Rep. Fred Costello and Craig Miller split Volusia.

As for his overperformance, Democrats have not really seriously contested the seat.

[PragmaticPopulist]

My guess is that he gets something like 43-46%. I think DeSantis will get a slight regional boost, but Volusia has moved pretty far to the right. Provided, I do think 2016 was a bit of an anomaly, and that Republicans would usually win the county by that much.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

As someone from Volusia county, this county is trending R, we're also 86% white. I don't see Gillum winning here unless black turnout is high and he does pretty well with the white vote.