Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Brittain33]

Ralston's 1pm PT update on his models:

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This doesn't factor in election day voting which has historically been heavily Republican ( though some of that may be cannibalized in the cow counties)

Yes. He’s explicitly talking about *now*.

[Seattle]

The WA big 5 as of 10/23 (except for Snohomish, which reports in the morning the previous day's totals):
                  Ballots:Turnout:
King:           52,776   4.09%
Pierce:         27,133   5.52%
Snohomish:  17,140   3.68% (9/22)
Spokane:     32,297   10.09% (wowza!)
Clark:          17,898   6.36%

10/24 update (again, except for Snohomish, which is a day behind:

                      Ballots:        Turnout:
King:             132,349   10.26%
Pierce:            43,015   8.75%
Snohomish:     27,891   5.99%
Spokane:        46,333   14.47%  (less, wowza, but still high)
Clark:             28,081   9.97%
Thurston:        20,956   11.60%
Kitsap:            21,218   12.70%
Yakima:          13,514   11.65%
Whatcom:       17,423   12.23%

State:             420,999      9.76%
(Doesn't include 10/24 Snohomish data and who knows how accurate the smaller counties are)

I'll have today's after 6PM or so.
10/25:
King:              165,330   12.82%
Pierce:            57,190   11.63%
Snohomish:     53,062   11.37%
Spokane:        58,238   18.19%
Clark:             38,189   13.56%
Thurston:        26,471   14.64%
Kitsap:            26,962   16.14%
Yakima:          20,003   17.23%
Whatcom:       22,004   15.45%

State:             584,331   13.5%

[KingSweden]

Man what is going on in Spokane?

[Gass3268]

Steve Schale is very excited:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1055979708129648645

[Pandaguineapig]

Steve Schale is very excited:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1055979708129648645

Take everything through the lense of him predicting soild Clinton and Crist wins.

[2016]

AZ Data Company "Data Orbital" who released a Poll last week showing Democrat Sinema up 5 admits their Poll was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

[Pandaguineapig]

AZ Data Company "Data Orbital" who released a Poll last week showing Democrat Sinema up 5 admits their Poll was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Don't understand why they didn't just poll using the sample they used for the governor race, it would be a lot cheaper and more efficient

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://twitter.com/JudgeClayJ/status/1055981524078735360

Dallas County beat 2016 again today, Tarrant had 39K vote, just 2K short of 2016.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538's latest podcast discusses predictive value of the early vote.  TL;DR: it's not worth much, and you should ignore everyone who talks about it except maybe Ralston and possibly some of the Florida people.

[2016]

Steve Schale is very excited:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1055979708129648645

LOL, Schale bragging about Orange County like it was still a "Swing County". It was from 2000-2006. Since then it has become Democratic County.

[KingSweden]

538's latest podcast discusses predictive value of the early vote.  TL;DR: it's not worth much, and you should ignore everyone who talks about it except maybe Ralston and possibly some of the Florida people.

But then joe will we hot take

[2016]

AZ Data Company "Data Orbital" who released a Poll last week showing Democrat Sinema up 5 admits their Poll was off...

http://chamberbusinessnews.com/2018/10/26/where-is-the-blue-wave/

Don't understand why they didn't just poll using the sample they used for the governor race, it would be a lot cheaper and more efficient

Bottom Line: The moment they released that Poll I thought it was off. I'm not surprised Republicans coming home in AZ. Obviously Indies will decide that Race.

[MT Treasurer]

538's latest podcast discusses predictive value of the early vote.  TL;DR: it's not worth much, and you should ignore everyone who talks about it except maybe Ralston and possibly some of the Florida people.

Too late for that.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Steve Schale is very excited:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1055979708129648645

Take everything through the lense of him predicting soild Clinton and Crist wins.

Blue Avs are really going hard at the “muh 2016” argument lately.

[Pandaguineapig]

Steve Schale is very excited:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1055979708129648645

Take everything through the lense of him predicting soild Clinton and Crist wins.

Blue Avs are really going hard at the “muh 2016” argument lately.

Just pointing out the idea of a "super pundit" is really stupid. He really doesn't have any more of idea of how the state will turn out than he did on 14 or 16

[Gass3268]

Clark looks to be over 25,000 today.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1055983648397127681

[GP270watch]

Schale is a Democrat and is trying to hype that vote. He isn’t objective enough.

Ralston is pretty good at making predictions and breaking down the political realities of his state.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Schale is a Democrat and is trying to hype that vote. He isn’t objective enough.

Ralston is pretty good at making predictions and breaking down the political realities of his state.

It really doesn’t make anything that Schale said untrue.

Besides, Orange County trending Democrat has been accepted by both side of the spectrum

[Holmes]

I recall some Virginia insider in the know was predicting a Northam landslide in the early morning based on turnout, then by the afternoon was saying things were neck in neck. I never trust what these people say. Just find out when the votes are counted.

[Gass3268]

Schale is a Democrat and is trying to hype that vote. He isn’t objective enough.

Ralston is pretty good at making predictions and breaking down the political realities of his state.

Schale has been cautious since the beginning of the voting.

[Xing]

Clark looks to be over 25,000 today.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1055983648397127681

The margin will be key, since that could be anywhere from adding 2K to possibly even 4K (if turnout pushes 30K) to the "firewall." Hopefully we'll hear about Washoe soon as well.

[ON Progressive]

Democrats win the Washoe early vote (again) by 45 votes.

However, mail-in/absentees cut into that and then some yet again. The GOP ultimately take the combined Washoe in-person/mail by a 3038-2949 margin, with 1460 NPA.

That means a roughly 40.7-39.6 GOP day. Not great, but I'm pretty sure it is better than yesterday and it's still close in Washoe.

[Oryxslayer]

I recall some Virginia insider in the know was predicting a Northam landslide in the early morning based on turnout, then by the afternoon was saying things were neck in neck. I never trust what these people say. Just find out when the votes are counted.

I tend to hold the same opinion, but Ralston is the exception that proves the rule. I don't think he has got a call wrong in recent history, and he is trying to project a swing state with a history of horrible polling. If there is ever a guru, its him.

[Xing]

Democrats win the Washoe early vote (again) by 45 votes.

However, mail-in/absentees cut into that and then some yet again. The GOP ultimately take the combined Washoe in-person/mail by a 3038-2949 margin, with 1460 NPA.

That means a roughly 40.7-39.6 GOP day. Not great, but I'm pretty sure it is better than yesterday and it's still close in Washoe.

Much better than yesterday, since they lost the combined vote in Washoe by 500-600.

[Ebsy]

Democrats should retake the lead in Washoe over the weekend, which is very encouraging.