Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Panda Express]

https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/1059423294301110272

Hmm... it seems like the Puerto Ricans are muy furioso

[Gass3268]

I read on twitter, some polling stations in parts of Florida panhandle are open today, is that true ?

Untrue. Early voting is over.

You're wrong. They extended early voting in certain Panhandle counties due to the hurricane and the delay in being able to send in absentee ballots.

Ah, ok. My mistake. What counties?

Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and Jackson

[Oryxslayer]

I read on twitter, some polling stations in parts of Florida panhandle are open today, is that true ?

Untrue. Early voting is over.

You're wrong. They extended early voting in certain Panhandle counties due to the hurricane and the delay in being able to send in absentee ballots.

Ah, ok. My mistake. What counties?

Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and Jackson

Which means what EV we get today will probably be an uninformative wash since half the voters there are Dixiecrats.

[libertpaulian]

I read on twitter, some polling stations in parts of Florida panhandle are open today, is that true ?

Untrue. Early voting is over.

You're wrong. They extended early voting in certain Panhandle counties due to the hurricane and the delay in being able to send in absentee ballots.

Ah, ok. My mistake. What counties?

Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and Jackson

Gadsden is heavily AA, which is good for Gillum.

[Tintrlvr]

I read on twitter, some polling stations in parts of Florida panhandle are open today, is that true ?

Untrue. Early voting is over.

You're wrong. They extended early voting in certain Panhandle counties due to the hurricane and the delay in being able to send in absentee ballots.

Ah, ok. My mistake. What counties?

Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf and Jackson

Which means what EV we get today will probably be an uninformative wash since half the voters there are Dixiecrats.

Most early votes counted for today statewide will be newly returned absentees. I doubt there are more than 5,000 votes total cast in person in those counties today but today will be a big day for late absentees (which have skewed strongly Democratic while earlier absentees were Republican - a typical pattern).

[Adam Griffin]

Any chance the GOP narrows the Dem's EV lead by a meaningful amount via extended voting in these Panhandle counties? I know some of them still have artificially high Dem registrations, but I don't think that's the case in places like Bay.

[Gass3268]

Any chance the GOP narrows the Dem's EV lead by a meaningful amount via extended voting in these Panhandle counties? I know some of them still have artificially high Dem registrations, but I don't think that's the case in places like Bay.

Bay and Gulf are Republican. Calhoun, Franklin and Jackson are DINO counties. Gadsden is a real Dem county.

[Calthrina950]

Colorado Update vs this point in time in 2014 (in parenthesis)

Democrats 423,791 (446,448)
Republicans  424,010 (558,966)
Independent  364,716 (359,496)

TOTAL  1,227,135 (1,379,562)

Rethugs had a 114,000 vote lead at this point in time in 2014, compared to a mere 301 vote lead now. Overall turnout is rather disappointing though.

I have no idea why you have a blue avatar when you clearly despise the Republican Party. But at any rate, I wonder what these results foretell for tomorrow.

[Nyvin]

It should be noted the vast majority of people in those counties live in Bay, which is very Republican.

[Panda Express]

Colorado Update vs this point in time in 2014 (in parenthesis)

Democrats 423,791 (446,448)
Republicans  424,010 (558,966)
Independent  364,716 (359,496)

TOTAL  1,227,135 (1,379,562)

Rethugs had a 114,000 vote lead at this point in time in 2014, compared to a mere 301 vote lead now. Overall turnout is rather disappointing though.

I have no idea why you have a blue avatar when you clearly despise the Republican Party. But at any rate, I wonder what these results foretell for tomorrow.

Because blue looks cooler than red. Everyone always went for the blue raspberry Otter Pop over the cherry one.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It's really odd to me why people continue to act like Beto can't win. Sure, is it likely? Probably not. But it's not impossible. I don't get why people here are instantly writing it off. Bad analyzation.

The argument for Cruz winning: Numbers.

The argument for Beto winning: Hopey-changey stuff.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1059491153882636293

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Still won't make a difference in the end. Cruz will win.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059447370386206720

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059446261017952257

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059447370386206720

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059446261017952257

You know the WOW counties will show up along with Dane County, but it's great to see Milwaukee up there above the state average. Maybe Mandela Barnes on the ticket is helping drive some turnout in the black northside of the city. Also it's great to see Menominee County up there, usually they drop off during midterms.

[Tintrlvr]

Any chance the GOP narrows the Dem's EV lead by a meaningful amount via extended voting in these Panhandle counties? I know some of them still have artificially high Dem registrations, but I don't think that's the case in places like Bay.

There will be too few votes cast there to matter. E.g., yesterday Bay cast around 3,000 votes, and it’s by far the biggest one. Also note that at least Bay is trying to get everyone to vote early because they’ll only have six (out of the usual 44) precincts open on Election Day due to the hurricane, so this is really cannibalization.

Finally, as I noted before, late absentees will swamp the remaining panhandle counties in today’s report.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059447370386206720

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059446261017952257

You know the WOW counties will show up along with Dane County, but it's great to see Milwaukee up there above the state average. Maybe Mandela Barnes on the ticket is helping drive some turnout in the black northside of the city. Also it's great to see Menominee County up there, usually they drop off during midterms.

It's looking good! Menominee is maxing out; MKE is meeting the average, and Dane is off the charts.

[Calthrina950]

Colorado Update vs this point in time in 2014 (in parenthesis)

Democrats 423,791 (446,448)
Republicans  424,010 (558,966)
Independent  364,716 (359,496)

TOTAL  1,227,135 (1,379,562)

Rethugs had a 114,000 vote lead at this point in time in 2014, compared to a mere 301 vote lead now. Overall turnout is rather disappointing though.

I have no idea why you have a blue avatar when you clearly despise the Republican Party. But at any rate, I wonder what these results foretell for tomorrow.

Because blue looks cooler than red. Everyone always went for the blue raspberry Otter Pop over the cherry one.

I see. I'm still interested in hearing any perspectives on how the elections in Colorado will go tomorrow.

[Zaybay]

Colorado Update vs this point in time in 2014 (in parenthesis)

Democrats 423,791 (446,448)
Republicans  424,010 (558,966)
Independent  364,716 (359,496)

TOTAL  1,227,135 (1,379,562)

Rethugs had a 114,000 vote lead at this point in time in 2014, compared to a mere 301 vote lead now. Overall turnout is rather disappointing though.

I have no idea why you have a blue avatar when you clearly despise the Republican Party. But at any rate, I wonder what these results foretell for tomorrow.

Because blue looks cooler than red. Everyone always went for the blue raspberry Otter Pop over the cherry one.

I see. I'm still interested in hearing any perspectives on how the elections in Colorado will go tomorrow.

Not an expert, but I would say it will go as such.
Early vote will be a practical tie.
Election Day vote will go big league to the Ds.
Coffman loses, while CO-3 is close, but in the end stays with the Rs.
Polis is elected governor.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1059510961587990532

Final Nevada numbers.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059447370386206720

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059446261017952257

You know the WOW counties will show up along with Dane County, but it's great to see Milwaukee up there above the state average. Maybe Mandela Barnes on the ticket is helping drive some turnout in the black northside of the city. Also it's great to see Menominee County up there, usually they drop off during midterms.

It's looking good! Menominee is maxing out; MKE is meeting the average, and Dane is off the charts.

Dane is literally a point away from the average, while Waukesha and Ozaukee outpace Milwaukee. What are you talking about? Great numbers for Walker.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059447370386206720

https://twitter.com/AndySuchorski/status/1059446261017952257

You know the WOW counties will show up along with Dane County, but it's great to see Milwaukee up there above the state average. Maybe Mandela Barnes on the ticket is helping drive some turnout in the black northside of the city. Also it's great to see Menominee County up there, usually they drop off during midterms.

It's looking good! Menominee is maxing out; MKE is meeting the average, and Dane is off the charts.

Dane is literally a point away from the average, while Waukesha and Ozaukee outpace Milwaukee. What are you talking about? Great numbers for Walker.

The fact that Milwaukee is in the same range as Waukesha for a midterm election is incredible. The WOW counties and Dane County always show up, Milwaukee does not. If that holds tomorrow, it's a big deal.

[BundouYMB]

Colorado Update vs this point in time in 2014 (in parenthesis)

Democrats 423,791 (446,448)
Republicans  424,010 (558,966)
Independent  364,716 (359,496)

TOTAL  1,227,135 (1,379,562)

Rethugs had a 114,000 vote lead at this point in time in 2014, compared to a mere 301 vote lead now. Overall turnout is rather disappointing though.

I have no idea why you have a blue avatar when you clearly despise the Republican Party. But at any rate, I wonder what these results foretell for tomorrow.

Because blue looks cooler than red. Everyone always went for the blue raspberry Otter Pop over the cherry one.

I see. I'm still interested in hearing any perspectives on how the elections in Colorado will go tomorrow.

Not an expert, but I would say it will go as such.
Early vote will be a practical tie.
Election Day vote will go big league to the Ds.
Coffman loses, while CO-3 is close, but in the end stays with the Rs.
Polis is elected governor.

This is so ignorant.

1). Colorado is entirely vote-by-mail. The vast majority of the ballots are in. What "election day"?

2). This is the first time in modern history that Democrats have returned more ballots than Republicans. Democrats dominate among CO indies, and will absolutely destroy Republicans based on the ballots that have been returned so far. There is absolutely 0 chance that the votes returned so far will be "practically a tie."

[Ebsy]

The fact that Milwaukee is in the same range as Waukesha for a midterm election is incredible. The WOW counties and Dane County always show up, Milwaukee does not. If that holds tomorrow, it's a big deal.

To play the Devil's Advocate, Milwaukee did have relatively garbage turnout in 2016, so this isn't quite as fantastic as it looks. Still, on balance, encouraging numbers for Dems in Wisconsin.

[Tintrlvr]

Colorado Update vs this point in time in 2014 (in parenthesis)

Democrats 423,791 (446,448)
Republicans  424,010 (558,966)
Independent  364,716 (359,496)

TOTAL  1,227,135 (1,379,562)

Rethugs had a 114,000 vote lead at this point in time in 2014, compared to a mere 301 vote lead now. Overall turnout is rather disappointing though.

I have no idea why you have a blue avatar when you clearly despise the Republican Party. But at any rate, I wonder what these results foretell for tomorrow.

Because blue looks cooler than red. Everyone always went for the blue raspberry Otter Pop over the cherry one.

I see. I'm still interested in hearing any perspectives on how the elections in Colorado will go tomorrow.

Not an expert, but I would say it will go as such.
Early vote will be a practical tie.
Election Day vote will go big league to the Ds.
Coffman loses, while CO-3 is close, but in the end stays with the Rs.
Polis is elected governor.

This is so ignorant.

1). Colorado is entirely vote-by-mail. The vast majority of the ballots are in. What "election day"?

2). This is the first time in modern history that Democrats have returned more ballots than Republicans. Democrats dominate among CO indies, and will absolutely destroy Republicans based on the ballots that have been returned so far. There is absolutely 0 chance that the votes returned so far will be "practically a tie."

He's right in the sense that ballots turned in today and on Election Day will be strongly D, as late mail-in ballots always are pretty much everywhere.

There is also an option to turn in your ballot in person, though few people do so.