Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Confused Democrat]

Democrats are going to have a pretty good day today in Florida, looks like super high turnout in the counties that are open.

Yeah it looks pretty crazy, but Reps will have the advantage on ED according to Schale (not sure why). Hopefully Democrats can keep it close on the 6th.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Democrats are going to have a pretty good day today in Florida, looks like super high turnout in the counties that are open.

Yeah it looks pretty crazy, but Reps will have the advantage on ED according to Schale (not sure why). Hopefully Democrats can keep it close on the 6th.

Democrats tend to early vote while Republicans are more traditional and wait until actual Election Day to vote.

[ON Progressive]

Democrats are going to have a pretty good day today in Florida, looks like super high turnout in the counties that are open.

Yeah it looks pretty crazy, but Reps will have the advantage on ED according to Schale (not sure why). Hopefully Democrats can keep it close on the 6th.

Democrats tend to early vote while Republicans are more traditional and wait until actual Election Day to vote.

I have to question that CW with the special elections we've been seeing in Florida this cycle though. Democrats actually did better on e-day than in the early vote in most of the specials..

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Democrats are going to have a pretty good day today in Florida, looks like super high turnout in the counties that are open.

Yeah it looks pretty crazy, but Reps will have the advantage on ED according to Schale (not sure why). Hopefully Democrats can keep it close on the 6th.

Democrats tend to early vote while Republicans are more traditional and wait until actual Election Day to vote.

I have to question that CW with the special elections we've been seeing in Florida this cycle though. Democrats actually did better on e-day than in the early vote in most of the specials..

Yeah, this year has been different, I wonder if that pattern will hold this year.

[Mehmentum]

Democrats are going to have a pretty good day today in Florida, looks like super high turnout in the counties that are open.

Yeah it looks pretty crazy, but Reps will have the advantage on ED according to Schale (not sure why). Hopefully Democrats can keep it close on the 6th.

Democrats tend to early vote while Republicans are more traditional and wait until actual Election Day to vote.

I have to question that CW with the special elections we've been seeing in Florida this cycle though. Democrats actually did better on e-day than in the early vote in most of the specials..

In addition, there is evidence that Republicans are cannibalizing their voters (the targetsmart data from Florida suggests that its true for the early vote in the state).  So I wouldn't be surprised if election day is better than history would suggest for the Democrats.

[ON Progressive]

Democrats are going to have a pretty good day today in Florida, looks like super high turnout in the counties that are open.

Yeah it looks pretty crazy, but Reps will have the advantage on ED according to Schale (not sure why). Hopefully Democrats can keep it close on the 6th.

Democrats tend to early vote while Republicans are more traditional and wait until actual Election Day to vote.

I have to question that CW with the special elections we've been seeing in Florida this cycle though. Democrats actually did better on e-day than in the early vote in most of the specials..

Yeah, this year has been different, I wonder if that pattern will hold this year.

According to MCIMaps, Dems also won e-day in Florida in 2012

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/doug_hanks/status/1059233286122299398

Massive lines in heavily black North Miami.

[junior chįmp]

Democrats are going to have a pretty good day today in Florida, looks like super high turnout in the counties that are open.

Souls to the polls was a success in Pinellas. Dems at almost 2k vote lead by 7PM after being down since the start of early voting

[Gass3268]

Democrats are going to have a pretty good day today in Florida, looks like super high turnout in the counties that are open.

Yeah it looks pretty crazy, but Reps will have the advantage on ED according to Schale (not sure why). Hopefully Democrats can keep it close on the 6th.

Democrats tend to early vote while Republicans are more traditional and wait until actual Election Day to vote.

I have to question that CW with the special elections we've been seeing in Florida this cycle though. Democrats actually did better on e-day than in the early vote in most of the specials..

Yeah, this year has been different, I wonder if that pattern will hold this year.

According to MCIMaps, Dems also won e-day in Florida in 2012

Same with the specials since 2016, then again most of those have been in the Cuban areas around Miami.

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/doug_hanks/status/1059233286122299398

American election officials are either record breaking in pure incompetence or record breaking in pure maliciousness. Or both!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Man Pizza To the Polls have been a great thing this year

[Gass3268]

Do we know what counties where open today in Florida? I know not all of them were.

[Ebsy]

Do we know what counties where open today in Florida? I know not all of them where.

Someone above in the thread had most if not all of the major ones listed.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Do we know what counties where open today in Florida? I know not all of them where.

Bradford, Broward, Charlotte, Duval, Hillsborough, Miami-Dade, Leon, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pinellas, Polk, Seminole, St. Lucie, Suwannee and Volusia

as well as Panhandle counties of Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson., Liberty and Washington.

[Gass3268]

Do we know what counties where open today in Florida? I know not all of them where.

Bradford, Broward, Charlotte, Duval, Hillsborough, Miami-Dade, Leon, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pinellas, Polk, Seminole, St. Lucie, Suwannee and Volusia

as well as Panhandle counties of Bay, Calhoun, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Jackson., Liberty and Washington.

Thank you!

[junior chįmp]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1059255830950879233

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1059255830950879233

wait wat???

[Confused Democrat]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1059241208625664001

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1059242419307331584

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1059241208625664001

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1059242419307331584

It's HAPPENING!

[junior chįmp]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1059241208625664001

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1059242419307331584

It's HAPPENING!

astroNUT!

[Confused Democrat]

Republicans won the early vote in FL in 2014, so this is a dramatic improvement.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I don’t like that the reps have a larger ED to work with

[NOVA Green]

OREGON- 11/2/18 PM UPDATE: (Based upon County Data not yet uploaded to OR-SoS server)

Oregon Secretary of State doesn't update results over the Weekend, and obviously these "lazy public sector workers living off their posh wages and benefits have much better things to do, than provide updates to the Citizens of Oregon on the last election weekend" (Right--- we have a right to know these matters in order to prevent interference in the elections of Ecotopia you see)...

So, anyways aside from the joke above, we do have some numbers that I mined off of County websites regarding Total Vote numbers by many counties received through EOD 11/2/18....

The data that I do have does not break down upon partisan affiliation, but does at least create additional data point(s), and might provide a greater idea of what overall turnout modelling might look like in Oregon once all the votes are received and counted.

OK--- Let's start with a Map of Registered Voters by County in Oregon as of Oct 31st, 2018 as a % of TOTAL COUNTY VOTE SHARE...



So basically the Counties in Gray are virtually irrelevant to the outcomes of Statewide elections....

Although collectively they account for 6.1% of the RV Vote Share in Oregon as of October 2018, these are generally strongly Republican Counties, where the main question in general would be the extent of the PUB margins and Turnout, rather than the *IF* flip scene.

Generally most of these counties would only really be relevant politically in an OR-CD-'02 election, or an extremely close OR-GOV election or State Ballot initiative....

So... if anyone has been following my OR NOV '18 GE Turnout posts to Date, I have been extremely focused on Jackson and Deschutes County within OR CD-02 (As well as OR-GOV elections).

Jackson and Deschutes Counties alone collectively represent 10.5% of Registered Voters in Oregon, where thus far we have seen extremely high Turnout Gaps in favor of the DEMs... (Not to even get into the type of Upper-Middle Class Educated Anglo voters that have migrated to these parts of Oregon in recent years).

Now, currently 43% of RVs in OR reside in the Three Core Counties of Metro Portland (Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas)....

Marion (7.3% RV in OR) and Lane (9.4% RV in OR) stand out, as do the 10% of RVs in Mid-Valley (Yamhill, Polk, Benton, Linn)...

Now, we need to look at the current RV vs EV Vote Share by County in Oregon, to see which Counties have a significantly higher or lower % of Total Votes Returned to Date Vs TOTAL REG Voters...



So, here we see that actual RV vs EV Turnout is significantly lower in many of the most Democratic Counties within Oregon....

Washington County is HUGE, considering it represents 13.0% of RV and only 10.6% of Oregon RV ballots returned to date. It is also one of the most Democratic Counties in Oregon, so DEMS obviously need a massive pickup once all the ballots are counted Tuesday Night...

Multnomah County is also HUGE, considering that even a minus 0.3% RV/EV Vote share translates to potentially a +10k-20k drop off in DEM votes if these patterns hold come election day.

Marion County: This where we might be seeing a potential decrease in Latino Turnout, especially RV vs EV numbers.... Still plenty of young voters vote late in Oregon so a 7.3% RV vs 6.7% EV isn't necessarily indicative of anything.

Now, we do have a few additional numbers from County Websites in Oregon as of EOD Friday....

+66k New Ballots added from the following Counties....

These numbers are obviously favorable towards the Democrats, considering where the votes are coming from, meaning raw DEM numbers in MultCo and Lane County will significantly jack up DEM statewide margins, regardless...



Now let's look at the total % of ballots returned by County, using the Friday PM % numbers (RV/EV) vs the Friday AM numbers (RV/EV).



NoVA GREEN--- OFF

[OneJ]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1059255830950879233

 

[Calthrina950]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/1059255830950879233

 

Still won't make a difference in the end. Cruz will win.