Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[DataGuy]

Republicans are pretty much screwed on Tuesday.

I will likely make my final predictions tomorrow, unless there are some final polls on Monday.

But I'm more going by past Dem wave election trends, special election results and early-voting trends this time and ignore the polls, such as the R-leaning ones in TN and TX (which I think will be really close races).

The overwhelming majority of predictions based on the early vote fail miserably. My model, the final predictions of which I will be posting soon, will ignore the early vote. We'll see what method fares better this time around.

Other states maybe, but I feel like ignoring early in NV may be a mistake.

Even without the EV, the other data in NV suggests the race is leaning in Rosen's favor. So at this time, I don't think the EV would make that much of a difference in my prediction anyway.

[SCNCmod]

What the Story in AZ?

Dems on pace to whittle the advantage down to R+7 tomorrow which would be about the same as the 2016 EV gap

Considering Dems lost AZ in 2016... is this a worrisome early vote result for Dems?

Note that Indys broke nicely for the Rs and Trump in 2016 because of an anti-Hillary climate.

Today, Indys are breaking strongly Dem - which could overcome even a moderate R turnout advantage. See the special elections in AZ and elsewhere, where Indys broke about 2-1 for the Dems.

I keep forgetting about IND vote.  Which I do think goes more to Dems this year.  From what I could tell playing with the number a week or so ago.... If Dems get over 60% (or the low 60s)... Then in addition to NV, they should be good in FL, AZ, and probably even MO.... and would at least keep them in the game with a chance at the senate (if TX-TN- or ND pull a rabbit out of the hat).

[Devout Centrist]

Washoe dropped, 13,187 votes today...about 55k total. Dems lead looks to be 1141 right now.

[ON Progressive]

I decided to try to pry numbers out of Washoe's spreadsheet. These may not be accurate because it is a massive spreadsheet, but I think these are right.

13,948 total votes:
5754 Democrats
4676 GOP
3518 NPA/Other/etc

So Dems net 1078 out of Washoe.

[Devout Centrist]

I decided to try to pry numbers out of Washoe's spreadsheet. These may not be accurate because it is a massive spreadsheet, but I think these are right.

13,948 total votes:
5754 Democrats
4676 GOP
3518 NPA/Other/etc

So Dems net 1078 out of Washoe.

Ralston confirms:
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1058617158215753728

[Tender Branson]

Nice overview of the TN early vote:

PDF Link

Nashville + suburbs have the highest turnout and big increases in early voting numbers.

[new_patomic]

Those Washoe numbers are going to be the real killer for Heller here.

[Ebsy]

I decided to try to pry numbers out of Washoe's spreadsheet. These may not be accurate because it is a massive spreadsheet, but I think these are right.

13,948 total votes:
5754 Democrats
4676 GOP
3518 NPA/Other/etc

So Dems net 1078 out of Washoe.

I think you are right, though that includes all types of ballots, including mail ballots. The edge I got for in person ballots is 5408 D's to 4291 R's, with 3309 NPA/Other.

[Xing]

Washoe dropped, 13,187 votes today...about 55k total. Dems lead looks to be 1141 right now.

The means Democrats won Washoe overall by about 1.8K, or 1.4%.

[ON Progressive]

Getting hard to see how anyone can call NV a tossup at this point

Delusion. Sheer delusion.

[GP270watch]

Will there be a lot of nasty infighting if Heller loses, amongst Nevada GOP? Apparently a lot of the GOP there wanted to toss him and it was the national party pushing him.

[Ebsy]

Will there be a lot of nasty infighting if Heller loses, amongst Nevada GOP? Apparently a lot of the GOP there wanted to toss him and it was the national party pushing him.

lol and they think an open seat would have fared better?

[UncleSam]

Will there be a lot of nasty infighting if Heller loses, amongst Nevada GOP? Apparently a lot of the GOP there wanted to toss him and it was the national party pushing him.

Unlikely. The GOP had no one else to run anyway - if Heller loses Tarkanian sure as hell will too, and he was the only one the national party pushed out of a primary challenge. The reality is that Nevada is a lean D state in a lean (at least) D year.

Though writing obituaries (even in Nevada) is still premature - remember that the early vote in 2016 was a much larger lead for Ds than this one is statewide. That being said, with D enthusiasm as it is, it's hard to see why Ds wouldn't perform better among Indys and on election day than they did in 2016 - and they only have to perform a little better than in 2016 to win at this point.

[IceSpear]

Getting hard to see how anyone can call NV a tossup at this any point

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Getting hard to see how anyone can call NV a tossup at this any point

It is hard to see how anyone can call NJ or TX a tossup too, but that doesn't stop the Cook Political Report.

[Tender Branson]

How many states still allow people to vote early today, tomorrow and on Monday ?

[Lachi]

Still nothing from Clark. I'm beginning to wonder if they just didn't bother and will drop it in the morning.

[wbrocks67]

Still nothing from Clark. I'm beginning to wonder if they just didn't bother and will drop it in the morning.

There's people on Twitter claiming it's at 48.8k but that doesn't make much sense since Ralston posted it was at 48k while tons of people were still in line.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Still no Clark?

[GeorgiaModerate]

How many states still allow people to vote early today, tomorrow and on Monday ?

http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/early-voting-in-state-elections.aspx has a list of the first and last days by state.

[GeorgiaModerate]

An Atlanta EV location 2.5 hours after the polls closed last night:

https://twitter.com/TIAreports/status/1058532344099942402

[Dr. Arch]

An Atlanta EV location 2.5 hours after the polls closed last night:

https://twitter.com/TIAreports/status/1058532344099942402

Wowza

[Hindsight was 2020]

Still no Clark #?

[Dr. Arch]

Still no Clark #?

Nope

[Virginiá]