Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal
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Author Topic: Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal  (Read 129200 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1150 on: October 30, 2018, 12:27:09 AM »
Quote from: Fremont Speaker ON Progressive on October 30, 2018, 12:25:36 AM
That doesn’t seem too bad for what is traditionally a good GOP day.

I expected the GOP to gain slightly, so this is a terrible day for them. It was supposed to be their best.
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YE
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« Reply #1151 on: October 30, 2018, 12:28:16 AM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on October 30, 2018, 12:26:22 AM
Quote from: Ebsy on October 30, 2018, 12:16:33 AM


Bg day for the Dems.



Firewall?

Have we learned from 2016 to not use that word?
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #1152 on: October 30, 2018, 12:30:12 AM »
Quote from: YE on October 30, 2018, 12:28:16 AM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on October 30, 2018, 12:26:22 AM
Quote from: Ebsy on October 30, 2018, 12:16:33 AM


Bg day for the Dems.



Firewall?

Have we learned from 2016 to not use that word?

Is that why we use Freiwal?
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Xing
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« Reply #1153 on: October 30, 2018, 12:30:41 AM »
Looks like it'll probably be a draw today, depending on what the other rurals are and what Clark absentees look like. If this is a good day for the GOP, I'm really glad I'm not Heller or Laxalt. Today wasn't even the worst day for Democrats in Clark, so we could really see things get good for the Democrats in the second half of the week.
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YE
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« Reply #1154 on: October 30, 2018, 12:33:44 AM »
Quote from: Beautiful Begich > Wimpy Walker on October 30, 2018, 12:30:12 AM
Quote from: YE on October 30, 2018, 12:28:16 AM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on October 30, 2018, 12:26:22 AM
Quote from: Ebsy on October 30, 2018, 12:16:33 AM


Bg day for the Dems.



Firewall?

Have we learned from 2016 to not use that word?

Is that why we use Freiwal?

lol no friewal long predates 2016 and was coined by OC around 2012
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1155 on: October 30, 2018, 12:39:17 AM »
Quote from: Xing on October 30, 2018, 12:30:41 AM
Looks like it'll probably be a draw today, depending on what the other rurals are and what Clark absentees look like. If this is a good day for the GOP, I'm really glad I'm not Heller or Laxalt. Today wasn't even the worst day for Democrats in Clark, so we could really see things get good for the Democrats in the second half of the week.

Ralston is actually guessing a small statewide victory for Ds today, which I won’t complain about.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1156 on: October 30, 2018, 12:55:42 AM »
« Edited: October 30, 2018, 12:59:30 AM by Lou Barletta's Teeth »
Some people are saying that the Dem firewall could possibly be 40K by the time EV ends. A firewall of at least 35K would be needed for Rosen to be favored.
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #1157 on: October 30, 2018, 01:06:08 AM »
Quote from: Fremont Speaker ON Progressive on October 30, 2018, 12:39:17 AM
Quote from: Xing on October 30, 2018, 12:30:41 AM
Looks like it'll probably be a draw today, depending on what the other rurals are and what Clark absentees look like. If this is a good day for the GOP, I'm really glad I'm not Heller or Laxalt. Today wasn't even the worst day for Democrats in Clark, so we could really see things get good for the Democrats in the second half of the week.

Ralston is actually guessing a small statewide victory for Ds today, which I won’t complain about.

Yeah, the race is safe for Rosen at this point. Lean D ---> Safe D

Maybe a slight exaggeration there.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1158 on: October 30, 2018, 01:13:26 AM »
Hey macklemore can we go thrift shopping
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Lachi
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« Reply #1159 on: October 30, 2018, 01:23:44 AM »
Lol, if today was the GOP's good day, and they couldn't eat into the Dems advantage, they're in deep trouble later on in the week...
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1160 on: October 30, 2018, 01:39:47 AM »
Quote from: Lincoln Senator Lok on October 30, 2018, 01:23:44 AM
Lol, if today was the GOP's good day, and they couldn't eat into the Dems advantage, they're in deep trouble later on in the week...
GOP definitely did not get the numbers they needed today. Looking increasingly likely that we will have a fairly confident idea of who is going to win by Friday.
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colincb
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« Reply #1161 on: October 30, 2018, 04:38:57 AM »
Quote from: KingSweden on October 29, 2018, 10:49:28 PM
Quote from: Ebsy on October 29, 2018, 10:34:54 PM
Turnout appears to be down or flat in the couple rurals that have reported in Nevada thus far.

Do you have the link to the week 2 NV SOS chart?

Week 2:
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5976

NV SOS with links to current and historical results:
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/elections/voters/election-turnout-statistics

.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1162 on: October 30, 2018, 07:21:42 AM »
Democrats have about a 27,802 lead in Clark. They have averaged a 2,780 lead per day (not counting yesterday's absentees). If Democrats get their average for the last 4 days, they can get their lead up to 38,923. Generally there is a late surge for Democrats at the end of the week, so 40,000 is not out of the question.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1163 on: October 30, 2018, 08:25:08 AM »
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Panda Express
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« Reply #1164 on: October 30, 2018, 08:27:46 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 30, 2018, 08:25:08 AM


Yeah, if there is one state I am NOT getting my hopes up based on early voting, it's Florida. I still have trauma from 2016.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1165 on: October 30, 2018, 08:31:00 AM »
Quote from: Vox Populi on October 30, 2018, 08:27:46 AM
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 30, 2018, 08:25:08 AM


Yeah, if there is one state I am NOT getting my hopes up based on early voting, it's Florida. I still have trauma from 2016.

Yeah, unlike other states with a big early vote, in Florida there will still be a substantial election day vote that will determine the election.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1166 on: October 30, 2018, 09:24:25 AM »
Ralston now thinks that 40,000 Clark County firewall is possible, 35,000 is almost certain.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #1167 on: October 30, 2018, 10:47:36 AM »
Wow, are people in this thread still worrying about Democrats losing Nevada?

Roll Eyes
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #1168 on: October 30, 2018, 10:50:09 AM »
Quote from: Fmr. Pres. Griff on October 30, 2018, 10:47:36 AM
Wow, are people in this thread still worrying about Democrats losing Nevada?

Roll Eyes

At this point, it seems pretty obvious that we’ll win Nevada. The only people who think otherwise are either pundits trying to push a horse race narrative or GOP hacks.
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GP270watch
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« Reply #1169 on: October 30, 2018, 10:53:34 AM »
Quote from: Fmr. Pres. Griff on October 30, 2018, 10:47:36 AM
Wow, are people in this thread still worrying about Democrats losing Nevada?

Roll Eyes

 Nevada looks great. Democrats need to worry about the GOTV in Florida and stop banking on Indies bailing them out or the national mood carrying them to victory.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1170 on: October 30, 2018, 11:03:36 AM »
Probably Clark County absentees:
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #1171 on: October 30, 2018, 11:14:30 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 30, 2018, 11:03:36 AM
Probably Clark County absentees:



Yup. Clark firewall at 28.5k. Statewide lead will be ~12.5k after the remaining rurals are counted, which would mean Dems expanded their statewide lead by about 1200 on Monday. Looks awful for the GOP if this is what a “good day” for them looks like.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1172 on: October 30, 2018, 11:18:04 AM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on October 30, 2018, 11:03:36 AM
Probably Clark County absentees:



A 40K firewall is looking likelier.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1173 on: October 30, 2018, 11:32:44 AM »
Republicans are cannibalizing their support in North Carolina too:



Source
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1174 on: October 30, 2018, 11:40:55 AM »
Quote from: Fmr. Pres. Griff on October 30, 2018, 10:47:36 AM
Wow, are people in this thread still worrying about Democrats losing Nevada?

Roll Eyes
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