Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Ebsy]

At the end of week 1 in 2010, Republicans had a 2k vote lead in Washoe, which expanded to a 3k vote lead through week 2. Considering that Reno is Heller's base, that's gotta be more troubling than even the Clark County numbers.

[Xing]

While rural turnout could surge again on Monday (I'm guessing it'll be higher, but probably not as high as it was last week), I think Heller/Laxalt need one of two things to happen:

1) A rural surge on Election Day
2) Win Independents by double digits

While 1 could happen, the trendline so far in the EV isn't good for them, and suggests that it's possible that Republicans have cannibalized a lot of their rural vote. 2 seems very unlikely, given the kind of year it is. If Democrats can keep turnout high in Clark, and keep the margin at about 9-10% or higher while at least keeping Washoe very close, I think Heller and Laxalt will need both 1 and 2 to happen in order to win. For reference, 1 and 2 did happen for Trump/Heck and it still wasn't enough.

[MT Treasurer]

This was always a Lean/Likely D race. Still the Senate seat most likely to flip.

[Ebsy]

Democrats need 3k votes a day out of Clark over the next 5 days to get to 40k. Considering that turnout typically ramps up over week two, it seems 45k is a serious possibility.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The important thing to look for now, in all the states where EV is a big thing (NV, GA, TX, FL, etc), is whether early voting turnout accelerates in the last week before the election. This has generally been the case in the past, but since turnout has already been so high, there is some question as to whether it can really go higher than it already has been going, or whether most people who wanted to vote early have already done so.

It seems like the weekend voting has been good for Dems as it typically is, across multiple states. The question then is whether the patterns of more Dem-favorable voting extends into the coming week as the end of early voting and then election day nears, or whether it reverts to being similar to the previous weekdays. If it reverts, then that should be better for the GOP. If turnout now accelerates and we start getting more of the new sorts of voters who started showing up on the weekend showing up on the remaining weekdays, then that is good for the Dems.

There have been some signs, at least in some states like NV, that Rs may be cannibalizing their voters a bit - turning out people who would vote anyway a bit earlier, whereas Dems seem to be doing relatively better, in general, among lower turnout-propensity voters. This seems to be the most important thing to watch over the next few days - if there is indeed an acceleration in voting in this final week, does the acceleration come from lower propensity voters? And if so, do those lower propensity voters have demographic patterns/party registration suggesting they will vote Dem? Or is it more split (as it has generally been a bit more in most states in the previous weekdays).

[Xing]

Democrats need 3k votes a day out of Clark over the next 5 days to get to 40k. Considering that turnout typically ramps up over week two, it seems 45k is a serious possibility.

I'd argue that the more important number is their statewide lead. It's a little shy of 11.5K, so they're in a much better position to hit 15K by the end of the week than it looked like they would last week. If Democrats can avoid losing much if any ground on Monday and Tuesday, which are usually relatively better days for Republicans in the second week, I'd say they have a good chance of hitting that number.

[Ebsy]

Also: Clark (71%) and Washoe (20%) are currently 91% of the early vote. The other way to think of this is that the rurals are 9%. In context, they made up 12% of total votes cast in 2016 and 15% in the total early vote 2010. Haven't as of yet looked at this more closely, but if I am Dean Heller I would not be a fan.

[colincb]

40K Clark firewall seems more likely than a 35K one at this point. Almost half the early votes will come in the next 5 days.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

While 1 could happen, the trendline so far in the EV isn't good for them, and suggests that it's possible that Republicans have cannibalized a lot of their rural vote.

The Rs do seem to be cannibalizing somewhat in NV in particular.

In the TargetSmart data, Rs have a lead of 55,812 to 50,099 among "Super Voters."

D's have leads with Frequent Voters, Infrequent Voters, and New Voters.

The R Super Voters were going to vote anyway, it was just a question of whether they would vote early or on election day. So Dems are probably in a more solid position in NV than you would think from just looking at Party Registration #s alone.

[eric82oslo]

Top 10 early voting states so far compared to 2014 totals:

1. Tennessee: 151.9% (Taylor Swift effect?)
2. Texas: 136.1% (Beto effect?)
3. Indiana: 127.9%
4. Nevada: 114.4%
5. Georgia: 108.8%
6. Minnesota: 106%
7. Delaware: 103.2%
8. North Carolina: 94.9%
9. New Mexico: 93.5%
10. Montana & Louisiana: 87.6%

35th and last: Oregon at 23.9%

Only 35 states have numbers/percentages so far. I guess most of the other states (including Arizona) don't have early voting or it hasn't started yet.

Numbers from electproject.org

[Brittain33]

Top 10 early voting states so far compared to 2014 totals:

1. Tennessee: 151.9% (Taylor Swift effect?)

I think it's the effect of actually having a competitive election for the first time since 2006.

[Gustaf]

Yeah, I was gonna say the top list seems to have a lot to do with having competitive statewide races now and not in 2014.

[Gass3268]

One thing to note is Ralston said that Republicans best days in Clark County come on the Monday and Tuesday of week two. Will be interesting to watch.

[Arkansas Yankee]

The Tampa Bay Times says the Blue Wave is mostly a mirage in Florida:

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/26/more-than-2-million-votes-cast-gop-keeps-its-advantage/

[Gass3268]

Great weekend for Democrats in Florida. They have cut down the Republican advantage to 2.2%. It was 6.4% at this time in 2014.

Republicans: 1,151,593 (42.3)
Democrats: 1,092,547 (40.1)
NPA/Minor: 482,252 (17.7)
Republican edge is 59,046 (+2.2%)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Tampa Bay Times says the Blue Wave is mostly a mirage in Florida:

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/10/26/more-than-2-million-votes-cast-gop-keeps-its-advantage/

All these newspapers are going to have cartons of egg on their face come Election Day for trying to use early voting to predict results. Have they not learned from the past 25 elections?

[DataGuy]

Great weekend for Democrats in Florida. They have cut down the Republican advantage to 2.2%. It was 6.4% at this time in 2014.

Republicans: 1,151,593 (42.3)
Democrats: 1,092,547 (40.1)
NPA/Minor: 482,252 (17.7)
Republican edge is 59,046 (+2.2%)

But aren't Democrats supposed to do better on weekends anyway? If they couldn't eliminate the GOP lead over their best days, how likely is it that they'll ever catch up in the early vote?

[Gass3268]

Great weekend for Democrats in Florida. They have cut down the Republican advantage to 2.2%. It was 6.4% at this time in 2014.

Republicans: 1,151,593 (42.3)
Democrats: 1,092,547 (40.1)
NPA/Minor: 482,252 (17.7)
Republican edge is 59,046 (+2.2%)

But aren't Democrats supposed to do better on weekends anyway? If they couldn't eliminate the GOP lead over their best days, how likely is it that they'll ever catch up in the early vote?

Most polling that has given the Democrats a mid-single digit lead has the electorate at +3 Republican. Democrats are leading in polling because they are dominating with that NPA group, as they are heavily young and Puerto Rican. If Democrats can keep that number around 3 or below, I feel good. Also there are a lot more VBM ballots still unreturned by Democrats, than Republicans. Yes those still have to be sent in, and that's an if, but there is a lot more sitting out there.

[GP270watch]

NPA being young or Latino democrats is only in a few places(I-4 counties). There are also many Republican voters in Florida who don't want to identify with the party.

[Devout Centrist]

You folks realize that the incumbent governor only won by a point in 2014, right?

[GP270watch]

You folks realize that the incumbent governor only won by a point in 2014, right?

Every recent election has been close in Florida. Obama who had a superior GOTV campaign won by 2.81% in 2008 and by only .88% in 2012.

Scott won governor in 2010 by 1.2% and in 2014 by 1%. This is a very close state. What people don't understand is that a lot of the population growth here has actually been white and conservative because of retirees and the suburban housing boom. And that they are reliable voters for the GOP who turn out.

 It seems that many people feel confident that Democrats will win with independants, great. But Democrats should do a better job of turning out their base and groups that will be reliable Democratic voters, instead of hoping they convince swing voters.

[SCNCmod]

How are Early Votes looking for Donnally in Indiana? ... judging from polls, this race seems to come down to what % of the vote the Libertarian gets (if over 5% things start looking better for Donnally).

[Pandaguineapig]

How are Early Votes looking for Donnally in Indiana?

Turnout is high everywhere so it's probably a wash, but absentees look awesome for the GOP

[SCNCmod]

How are Early Votes looking for Donnally in Indiana?

Turnout is high everywhere so it's probably a wash, but absentees look awesome for the GOP

Is there any way to tell if the Libertarian candidate is taking many votes away from Braun?