Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Virginiá]

The best answer at this point is summed up by the fact Trump is both massively unpopular but has the highest approval rating in the Republican Party since Reagan

Trump's approval rating among Republicans isn't that much higher than Obama's. Looking at Gallup polling, it's usually about 5-7 points higher than Obama's was among Democrats during a midterm year. The gap is even lower or non-existent in 2010. These were both years with either relatively normal midterm or historically low turnout.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/presidential-approval-ratings-donald-trump.aspx
https://news.gallup.com/poll/116479/barack-obama-presidential-job-approval.aspx

What makes you so sure that it's ''for Trump'' as opposed to ''against the left''?

Because midterms are referendums on the president and America is obsessed with presidential politics like none other (this goes beyond any one president). It is why there is a "White House curse" to begin with.

Just like his predecessors, for the time being, it all has something to do with him.

[Mehmentum]

Rural turnout looks to have dropped considerably today. As a result, Democrats gained to their statewide lead. While Carson City it yet to report (and a few rural counties still haven't reported from Thursday), so Republican may gain a couple hundred more votes when everything is in, Democrats are up about 4.7K statewide, and 18K in Clark.

Nice.  Might this mean that Republicans have in fact been cannibalizing their voters, and are now out of low hanging fruit?  I'd want to wait for Monday to know say for sure.

[KingSweden]

Lyon County had an especially notable turnout collapse of all the rurals, Douglas a big one but not that big, and Nye was up slightly.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I would like to know exactly what is causing this huge turnout. I can guess pretty easily what it is with Democrats (duh), but what about Republicans? What exactly is driving them to show up in force for a man like Trump? What series of events caused that? Because this doesn't seem normal for an unpopular president's party.

Racial threat/group threat? Rs know that they are demographically shrinking, this causes fear which motivates them to attempt to "defend themselves."

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Kalla and Broockman also oversaw nine new field studies examining the effects of canvassing on altering voters' preferences come election day. None of the canvassing campaigns were substantively effective.

Canvassing is not that effective at persuasion, but it has a greater effect increasing turnout (within reason).

[wbrocks67]

I recall some Virginia insider in the know was predicting a Northam landslide in the early morning based on turnout, then by the afternoon was saying things were neck in neck. I never trust what these people say. Just find out when the votes are counted.

OMG. I remember that. He did come back around in the late afternoon saying he thought a win was still very likely, but his tone changed dramatically in literally a matter of hours that day. It was an emotional rollercoaster lol

[wbrocks67]

Its over for the GOP. There's nothing they can do to turn back the tide. Frankly, its been over for awhile now and all this frittering over early vote numbers and polling noise and Kavanaugh Bump nonsense is dumb. This whole election is nothing but a referendum on Trump and thats it.

I would like to know exactly what is causing this huge turnout. I can guess pretty easily what it is with Democrats (duh), but what about Republicans? What exactly is driving them to show up in force for a man like Trump? What series of events caused that? Because this doesn't seem normal for an unpopular president's party. Not that I think it will blunt the wave or anything - Democrats are hugely enthused and indies seem set to break savagely against the GOP, but still. I'd have expected Republican turnout to backslide a smidgen at least. I haven't kept up with all the data, but it seems in some places that isn't the case (ftr I think the GOP is currently running behind their 2014 numbers in FL, at least according to a graph I just saw earlier).

All I know is that if we have the highest turnout for a midterm in 50 - 100 years, it is definitely worth analyzing the crap out of.

This is a good point. You'd expect Dems to turn out because they're out of power. And even when the president had a ~45% approval overall, his party still didn't turn out that great (look at Obama in 2010), so with Trump's approval at 41-43% right now, it's odd that the GOP would be so willing to come out. It's also possible that people are just more engaged this cycle than a usual midterm since its so hyped up, and that Trump has been out there way more than a normal president is. His base is smaller than it was, but it's possible that a lot of his base is still coming out and a regular GOPers are still engaged.

But yeah, I'd still be surprised if GOP had even a *regular* turn out this year, since history tell us that is pretty much never the case for the party of power.

[GP270watch]

 I think Trump has definitely solidified the Republican base. The question is how are Indies going to swing and how many women who didn't vote are going to vote now because they are so turned off by Trump's behavior.
 But there is also a troubling trend for Democrats, that the GOP is seen as the only choice for white voters by an increasing number of white people. If the GOP can manage to get even a few percentage points more of the white vote, it wipes out any demographic shift. Especially when many Latinos don't bother to vote.

[Confused Democrat]

I think Trump has definitely solidified the Republican base. The question is how are Indies going to swing and how many women who didn't vote are going to vote now because they are so turned off by Trump's behavior.
 But there is also a troubling trend for Democrats, that the GOP is seen as the only choice for white voters by an increasing number of white people. If the GOP can manage to get even a few percentage points more of the white vote, it wipes out any demographic shift. Especially when many Latinos don't bother to vote.

We’ll see if they turnout on Nov 6. Latinos are notoriously hard to poll.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1056221460350459905

[DataGuy]

Most of the Week 1 is in from Nevada, so it's a little easier now to compare it to the Week 1 vote from 2016. Everyone claims that, unlike other state, the Nevada early vote really is predictive. Here's what it looks like in aggregate right now compared to 2016:

Week 1, 2018

Democratic: 42.22% - 112,517
Republican: 38.84% - 103,496
Other: 18.94% - 50,472

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5950

Week 1, 2016

Democratic: 44.50% - 151,020
Republican: 35.84% - 121,651
Other: 66,728

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

The gap between registered Republicans and Democrats is actually smaller this year, which might seem counterintuitive. This race will clearly come down to independents. And before everyone automatically assumes they'll break for Rosen, it's worth noting that every recent poll has shown Heller leading among that group.

I still say it's a textbook tossup.

[UncleSam]

Most of the Week 1 is in from Nevada, so it's a little easier now to compare it to the Week 1 vote from 2016. Everyone claims that, unlike other state, the Nevada early vote really is predictive. Here's what it looks like in aggregate right now compared to 2016:

Week 1, 2018

Democratic: 42.22% - 112,517
Republican: 38.84% - 103,496
Other: 18.94% - 50,472

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5950

Week 1, 2016

Democratic: 44.50% - 151,020
Republican: 35.84% - 121,651
Other: 66,728

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

The gap between registered Republicans and Democrats is actually smaller this year, which might seem counterintuitive. This race will clearly come down to independents. And before everyone automatically assumes they'll break for Rosen, it's worth noting that every recent poll has shown Heller leading among that group.

I still say it's a textbook tossup.

You forgot to add in absentee ballots.

Anyway the %s look better for Rs as compared to 2016 but remember that Rs outperformed expectations on Election Day massively in 2016 + won Indys by a surprising margin. Neither of those is likely to happen this year, so Rs HAVE to do better with the early + absentee vote to have a chance - thus far they are doing that, so tossup seems reasonable for the statewide races.

[Xing]

Most of the Week 1 is in from Nevada, so it's a little easier now to compare it to the Week 1 vote from 2016. Everyone claims that, unlike other state, the Nevada early vote really is predictive. Here's what it looks like in aggregate right now compared to 2016:

Week 1, 2018

Democratic: 42.22% - 112,517
Republican: 38.84% - 103,496
Other: 18.94% - 50,472

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5950

Week 1, 2016

Democratic: 44.50% - 151,020
Republican: 35.84% - 121,651
Other: 66,728

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

The gap between registered Republicans and Democrats is actually smaller this year, which might seem counterintuitive. This race will clearly come down to independents. And before everyone automatically assumes they'll break for Rosen, it's worth noting that every recent poll has shown Heller leading among that group.

I still say it's a textbook tossup.

Ralston has cautioned against comparing turnout this year to 2016 (apples to oranges), since it's a midterm. In 2016, Democrats did better in the first week, but it's usually the opposite in midterms.

[RI]

TargetSmart's latest updates in AZ, IN, MT, and OH were all slight improvements for the GOP. FL was completely neutral. NJ and RI favored the Dems.

[DataGuy]

Most of the Week 1 is in from Nevada, so it's a little easier now to compare it to the Week 1 vote from 2016. Everyone claims that, unlike other state, the Nevada early vote really is predictive. Here's what it looks like in aggregate right now compared to 2016:

Week 1, 2018

Democratic: 42.22% - 112,517
Republican: 38.84% - 103,496
Other: 18.94% - 50,472

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5950

Week 1, 2016

Democratic: 44.50% - 151,020
Republican: 35.84% - 121,651
Other: 66,728

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

The gap between registered Republicans and Democrats is actually smaller this year, which might seem counterintuitive. This race will clearly come down to independents. And before everyone automatically assumes they'll break for Rosen, it's worth noting that every recent poll has shown Heller leading among that group.

I still say it's a textbook tossup.

You forgot to add in absentee ballots.

Anyway the %s look better for Rs as compared to 2016 but remember that Rs outperformed expectations on Election Day massively in 2016 + won Indys by a surprising margin. Neither of those is likely to happen this year, so Rs HAVE to do better with the early + absentee vote to have a chance - thus far they are doing that, so tossup seems reasonable for the statewide races.

I was just using in-person turnout because I think it's a slightly better measure of enthusiasm, but counting the mail-in ballots it looks like this:

Week 1, 2018

Democratic: 41.36% - 128,500
Republican: 39.89% - 123,951
Other: 18.75% - 58,256

Week 1, 2016

Democratic: 43.71% - 167,913
Republican: 36.65% - 140,792
Other: 19.63% - 75,408

[IceSpear]

Most of the Week 1 is in from Nevada, so it's a little easier now to compare it to the Week 1 vote from 2016. Everyone claims that, unlike other state, the Nevada early vote really is predictive. Here's what it looks like in aggregate right now compared to 2016:

Week 1, 2018

Democratic: 42.22% - 112,517
Republican: 38.84% - 103,496
Other: 18.94% - 50,472

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5950

Week 1, 2016

Democratic: 44.50% - 151,020
Republican: 35.84% - 121,651
Other: 66,728

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

The gap between registered Republicans and Democrats is actually smaller this year, which might seem counterintuitive. This race will clearly come down to independents. And before everyone automatically assumes they'll break for Rosen, it's worth noting that every recent poll has shown Heller leading among that group.

I still say it's a textbook tossup.

Actually everyone seems to be assuming indies are going big for Heller. Because if they split evenly, then Rosen wins easily.

[Xing]

Most of the Week 1 is in from Nevada, so it's a little easier now to compare it to the Week 1 vote from 2016. Everyone claims that, unlike other state, the Nevada early vote really is predictive. Here's what it looks like in aggregate right now compared to 2016:

Week 1, 2018

Democratic: 42.22% - 112,517
Republican: 38.84% - 103,496
Other: 18.94% - 50,472

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=5950

Week 1, 2016

Democratic: 44.50% - 151,020
Republican: 35.84% - 121,651
Other: 66,728

https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

The gap between registered Republicans and Democrats is actually smaller this year, which might seem counterintuitive. This race will clearly come down to independents. And before everyone automatically assumes they'll break for Rosen, it's worth noting that every recent poll has shown Heller leading among that group.

I still say it's a textbook tossup.

Actually everyone seems to be assuming indies are going big for Heller. Because if they split evenly, then Rosen wins easily.

People are also assuming that a Republicans will win the ED vote massively, which at the very least isn’t a safe assumption.

[izixs]

One of the things that I think about each election is the habit of the early vote to 'cannibalize' the election day vote. In some states the rate for each party there is steady most elections, but not in others, especially in states where the rate of early voting is changing drastically over time.

To a degree in most states, early voters tend towards reliable partisans or habitual voters who have specific reasons for not being able to wait till election day, as well as a spatter of folks encouraged to take it up as part of GOTV efforts. So one might be able to surmise that the early vote is more closely related to the 'base' of each party in terms of size and strength than it is what the end out come will be. This assertion would be less true in states with most or all mail in balloting naturally or places with high restrictions on early voting that prevent one or both parties from getting in early. So under this view, then some large section of the party bases will have already voted by election day, and a larger portion of those who vote on election day will be the fringe, indie, now, and occasional voters. In other words, the folks most up for being swayed by late breaking events and news. And who are perhaps less likely to even show up in a normal midterm year.

And so the question should not be if the bases of the partys are showing up (they obviously are) but if anyone else will along with. And if so, who. I'm half expecting election day turnout to not be as high as the early vote suggests at this point.

Not to say I don't find all the early voting reports interesting and exciting. I enjoy my election data drug as much as the rest of you. But I suppose keeping all of this in mind, this division of the who of likely voters, it keeps me from getting too excited one way or another.

[Gass3268]

Ralston thinks the Republicans are canibalizing their vote. Pretty good recent blog post. Still not all peaches for the Democrats as only 12% of the early vote so far is under 40.

[Ebsy]

Ralston thinks the Republicans are canibalizing their vote. Pretty good recent blog post. Still not all peaches for the Democrats as only 12% of the early vote so far is under 40.

Here is the data:

Here’s how much of the early vote is coming from 2014 voters (when turnout was way down) — 65 percent of Rs and 54 percent of Ds.
And that GOP absentee ballot campaign, which has changed the dynamic in the rurals also shows more inveterates and not new voters:
Fifty percent of GOP mail ballots are inveterates (voted in last three elections) while only 41 percent of the Dem absentees are.

[libertpaulian]

Dems should aim for what...30-40K in Clark today?

[wbrocks67]

Ralston thinks the Republicans are canibalizing their vote. Pretty good recent blog post. Still not all peaches for the Democrats as only 12% of the early vote so far is under 40.

I can't imagine a large portion of EV voters being <30. For any state.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

First day of early voting here in Volusia County:

3,068   Republicans
2,774       Democrats
1,344       NPA/OTHER

Total: 7,186

Mail-in ballots:
25,192          Republicans
21,338          Democrats
11,772          NPA/OTHER

Total: 58,302

[libertpaulian]

First day of early voting here in Volusia County:

3,068   Republicans
2,774       Democrats
1,344       NPA/OTHER

Total: 7,186

Mail-in ballots:
25,192          Republicans
21,338          Democrats
11,772          NPA/OTHER

Total: 58,302

Dang, for a county trending R like Volusia, that's pretty good.

[Brittain33]

Today, Dallas County beat its record for EV from the comparable Saturday in 2016. Something like 31,000.