Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Dr. Arch]

Dane County looks absolutely wonderful. If Democrats get Dallet margins from Dane, Republicans are done.

[Ebsy]

Yeah if I am a Democrat I like the Wisconsin numbers. Walker got 35k votes out of Washington County in 2014. Any votes he loses there are going to be difficult to make up elsewhere, especially when it looks like he is going to do much worse in the North and West.

[Xing]

To respond to bilaps, I've acknowledged that the numbers aren't looking as rosy for Democrats as they did on Saturday, I'm just saying that while Rosen isn't looking like she'll win by 10, I'd still rather be her than Heller. Anyone who thought that breakdown by party ID alone would suggest a Democratic wave was engaging in some pretty wishful thinking. If there is a blue tsunami (big if) it's probably because Independents are breaking heavily for Democrats and there's some crossover voting. I wouldn't bet on that, but that was always going to be necessary for a 60+ seat tsunami for the Democrats.

Anyway, more Clark absentees are in, Democrats gained about 100 more, and are now just shy of a 3.5K lead statewide. Hopefully we'll get a Clark turnout update in about an hour or so.

[KingSweden]

Yeah if I am a Democrat I like the Wisconsin numbers. Walker got 35k votes out of Washington County in 2014. Any votes he loses there are going to be difficult to make up elsewhere, especially when it looks like he is going to do much worse in the North and West.

Eh. It’s early yet. Just thought it was interesting it was running behind Waukesha that much

[GeorgiaModerate]

Right, the EV is certainly not at the point where Rosen is guaranteed to win, but from the hysterical reactions of some of the posters here you would think Heller already had it in the bag. And yes, the early reactions were also hysterical. I guess that's the one common thread here.

To me, it seems perfectly reasonable to by hysterical if Rosen is not guaranteed to win. Rosen should be guaranteed to win by all rights. It is not about Heller having it in the bag. It is about Rosen not having it in the bag, which is really pathetic. Don't succumb to the soft bigotry of low expectations.

Eh, fair enough I guess. I guess if you were hoping for/expecting a massive wave something like this would put a damper on it, but I never expected it to be a tsunami. And to me Rosen still looks on track to win, albeit by a smaller margin than I would've predicted a week ago.

Plus, we still have a lot of time left before this EV data is final.

A wave isn't winning by large margins...a wave is when all the close states break your way. NV and AZ were never going to be large margin wins...but in a wave they will both break to the DEMS.

AZ was never going to be a large win? Atlas told me otherwise in the summer, lol.

I believe most people, with the exception of a few wildly overoptimistic Democrats, said that Sinema would win by a large margin if Ward or (especially) Arpaio was her opponent, but that it would be much closer against McSally.

[ON Progressive]

To respond to bilaps, I've acknowledged that the numbers aren't looking as rosy for Democrats as they did on Saturday, I'm just saying that while Rosen isn't looking like she'll win by 10, I'd still rather be her than Heller. Anyone who thought that breakdown by party ID alone would suggest a Democratic wave was engaging in some pretty wishful thinking. If there is a blue tsunami (big if) it's probably because Independents are breaking heavily for Democrats and there's some crossover voting. I wouldn't bet on that, but that was always going to be necessary for a 60+ seat tsunami for the Democrats.

Anyway, more Clark absentees are in, Democrats gained about 100 more, and are now just shy of a 3.5K lead statewide. Hopefully we'll get a Clark turnout update in about an hour or so.

It is 3 PM in Nevada (Anybody know why they use PT when MT seems more reasonable geographically?), so we might get one soon.

[KingSweden]

To respond to bilaps, I've acknowledged that the numbers aren't looking as rosy for Democrats as they did on Saturday, I'm just saying that while Rosen isn't looking like she'll win by 10, I'd still rather be her than Heller. Anyone who thought that breakdown by party ID alone would suggest a Democratic wave was engaging in some pretty wishful thinking. If there is a blue tsunami (big if) it's probably because Independents are breaking heavily for Democrats and there's some crossover voting. I wouldn't bet on that, but that was always going to be necessary for a 60+ seat tsunami for the Democrats.

Anyway, more Clark absentees are in, Democrats gained about 100 more, and are now just shy of a 3.5K lead statewide. Hopefully we'll get a Clark turnout update in about an hour or so.

It is 3 PM in Nevada (Anybody know why they use PT when MT seems more reasonable geographically?), so we might get one soon.

Presumably because both Vegas and Reno are very near to California (granted I’ve alwayd found that odd too)

[Gass3268]

I can't find the North Carolina chart I saw a couple hours ago. It was really good. I'll try to keep looking in a couple hours.

Found it, will post it when I get home.

[GeorgiaModerate]

To respond to bilaps, I've acknowledged that the numbers aren't looking as rosy for Democrats as they did on Saturday, I'm just saying that while Rosen isn't looking like she'll win by 10, I'd still rather be her than Heller. Anyone who thought that breakdown by party ID alone would suggest a Democratic wave was engaging in some pretty wishful thinking. If there is a blue tsunami (big if) it's probably because Independents are breaking heavily for Democrats and there's some crossover voting. I wouldn't bet on that, but that was always going to be necessary for a 60+ seat tsunami for the Democrats.

Anyway, more Clark absentees are in, Democrats gained about 100 more, and are now just shy of a 3.5K lead statewide. Hopefully we'll get a Clark turnout update in about an hour or so.

It is 3 PM in Nevada (Anybody know why they use PT when MT seems more reasonable geographically?), so we might get one soon.

Presumably because both Vegas and Reno are very near to California (granted I’ve alwayd found that odd too)

The Pacific time zone is appropriate for Nevada.  Each time zone should be 15 degrees of longitude wide (360 degrees/24 hours).  With GMT centered around 0 degrees longitude, Pacific Time (the 8th time zone west of it) should be centered around 120 W, ideally from 112.5 W to 127.5 W (of course the zone boundaries are adjusted for geographic regions).  Reno is almost exactly on 120 W, and Vegas is at 115.

[Crumpets]

Just got my ballot!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1055500285337092097

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Just got my ballot!

What are you waiting for? Fill it out and send it in!

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1055500285337092097

I just checked the Texas Tribune early voting tracker. They have day 3 results in and El Paso County is already beyond 2014 early voting turnout. I expected El Pasoans (is that what you call them?) to be excited about Beto, but passing the whole 2014 early vote total on day 3 is pretty nuts.
https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2018/general-election-early-voting/

[GP270watch]

 I just got my Florida VBM ballot today.

[Adam Griffin]

While everyone was freaking out about the "Dems in disarray" in Nevada because they're not leading by enough, Democrats gained a couple hundred votes thanks to absentees in Clark. Statewide lead is 3.4K. We'll see if they get to 15K statewide, but the way Independents have been voting this year, I'm not sure they'll need to.

Maybe I'm the idiot and am missing something incredibly obvious here, but as you said, I don't see why Dems need a ridiculously gaudy vote margin otherwise the Unbeatable Titan is inevitable. They ended up needing it in 2016, but that was because independents broke heavily for Trump. The idea that they'd need it again seems to be predicated upon the assumption that they will also break heavily for Heller, which...is certainly not a safe one.

You're not - eight pages later and people are still freaking out about NV.

Trump won independents by 13 points. NV Dems this cycle can easily win indies by 15-20. Democrats could have a measly 2-point party ID advantage in the total vote and still pull a 7-10 point win with a 20-point lead among indies.

[Xing]

Apparently, turnout in Clark is down slightly (cue the "Dems in disarrary" crowd), being at 15K at 3 PM. Should probably still crack 20K, but we're probably looking at 20-22K, rather than 24-25K.

[Gass3268]

North Carolina:

[Devout Centrist]

While everyone was freaking out about the "Dems in disarray" in Nevada because they're not leading by enough, Democrats gained a couple hundred votes thanks to absentees in Clark. Statewide lead is 3.4K. We'll see if they get to 15K statewide, but the way Independents have been voting this year, I'm not sure they'll need to.

Maybe I'm the idiot and am missing something incredibly obvious here, but as you said, I don't see why Dems need a ridiculously gaudy vote margin otherwise the Unbeatable Titan is inevitable. They ended up needing it in 2016, but that was because independents broke heavily for Trump. The idea that they'd need it again seems to be predicated upon the assumption that they will also break heavily for Heller, which...is certainly not a safe one.

You're not - eight pages later and people are still freaking out about NV.

Trump won independents by 13 points. NV Dems this cycle can easily win indies by 15-20. Democrats could have a measly 2-point party ID advantage in the total vote and still pull a 7-10 point win with a 20-point lead among indies.

Holy sh[inks]t, thank you Adam for saying exactly what needed to be said! Crying out loud, Trump won independents by 6 nationally back in 2016...you think there's gonna be a repeat of that this year??

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I think it's a bit understated how a Dem lead in Indies could change things, considering they are like 17% of the electorate right now.

HOWEVER, I wanna know what the hell is going on in NV and why Dem areas are just doing okay but rurals are surging. Where is the Harry Reid machine?! Where is the Dems absentee ballot campaign?!

[KingSweden]

North Carolina:

Not sure how best to interpret this data considering how many Demosaurs there are in the South

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Is there a way I can put this entire thread on ignore?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is there a way I can put this entire thread on ignore?

Don't read it?

[Ebsy]

Is there a way I can put this entire thread on ignore?

Don't read it?

Log out of atlas and never log back in.

[Nyvin]

North Carolina:

Not sure how best to interpret this data considering how many Demosaurs there are in the South

If Dems win anything in NC it'll just be icing on the cake anyway.

[Xing]

Some rurals have reported, and Republicans gained about 1.1K counting absentees, but that’s a little less than previous days, since turnout is lower than previous days (like in Clark.) If Washoe is tied and Clark is about a 10-point win for Democrats, we’re probably looking at another draw. We’ll see.