Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yes, now they're in, so it's 3243 lead for Dems now statewide.

Holy f**king sh*t this is a disaster.

Chill. They're still ahead and treading water. If they end up behind statewide, then maybe it'll be time to worry.

ED vote is typically Republican in NV. Ralston said Democrats need to build up a 15K lead in early voting to be ahead. They're nowhere near on track to.

Except voting behavior is erratic and doesn't follow a trend or a mode over the course of a week, as each day is characteristically different, and every week is also characteristically different as election day nears. Take a breather and think, my friend.

Oh come on. We have seen a clear pattern throughout these days, even if there are minor fluctuations from day to day. You know I'm not a concern troll, but at some point you have to take a serious look at the data.

That is a serious look at the data. Read my response again.

No, "that" is just rationalizing a negative data point as "whatever, things change". Sure things can change, but extrapolating from NV early voting has been pretty spot on for the past 4 election cycles, so extrapolating from these bad results that Democrats are not doing great seems reasonable.

Of course Rosen and Sisolak aren't doomed or anything, but this doesn't justify the level of confidence some posters are having about this race.

[ajc0918]

Democrats are starting to push for folks with absentee ballots to get theirs in:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1055529074355916800

I'm use to seeing huge FL numbers. Is a lead of 3500 good?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This thread is EVERYTHING that is wrong with atlas. We spent weeks before early voting opened warning each other how stupid it is to make predictions off of EV and yet that’s exactly what we’re doing here. Shut the computer off and read a book.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This thread is EVERYTHING that is wrong with atlas. We spent weeks before early voting opened warning each other how stupid it is to make predictions off of EV and yet that’s exactly what we’re doing here. Shut the computer off and read a book.

I agree with you about every other State (and as you can see I'm not commenting on the TX or FL or GA numbers), but Nevada is the exception that proves the rule.

[Virginiá]

@Antonio Whatever the data says right now, I still think it's worth saying that there is no point getting worked up about this. Just let early voting run its course and then go over the data as a whole. I can only really speak for myself, but I remember getting excited about early voting in 2016, and it was disappointing in the end (albeit not necessarily proportionately disappointing across the country).

We're quite possibly looking at the highest turnout midterm in ~100 years. That adds a level of uncertainty to the predictions game, imo. There is also evidence from the high-turnout special elections we had that not all Republicans can be expected to vote the same way (they might, but there is at least some reason to believe in higher-than-normal splits). So, when in doubt, I try to take the GCB into account as well. The fact that it is constantly hovering around D+7 - 10 and has been for over 1.5 years should count for something. And if that is close to the final result, it would be hard to see how that doesn't affect Nevada somehow.

[2016]

Florida:

Republicans:  748,091 (42.7%)
Democrats:  694,923 (39.7%)
NPA/Minor: 308,461 (17.6%)
Totals: 1,751,451

As of this morning, Republicans lead by 53,168 (+3.03%, was 8.8% in 2014).

Yesterday, we were at 1,448.251, with the GOP holding an edge of 52,850 votes (+3.65%).

The day was pretty much a push.  Republicans narrowly one the in-person early voting, while Democrats won the VBM return.

Steve Schale blog

Schale is probably the only guy I can really trust. He nailed FL in 2008 & 2012 for Obama so to speak. In his Post yesterday he said FL will be close with Candidates having a 48/47 Floor Vote.

He also guaranteed a 4 point Clinton win because of muh HISPANIC SURGE™, so take what he says through a certain lense

He then admitted he was wrong and missed the Trump surge in the outer Tampa area and that there was no way to forecast what was going to happen on election day.

Also I've noticed that the partisan breakdown (R+3) is pretty close to what a lot of the polling samples are. This makes sense as NDA's (Puerto Ricans and young people) lean fairly strong to Democrats in Florida.

Then you haven't followed the Polls as of late my friend. SurveyUSA used a Partisan Model of D + 5 and CNN used D + 3. The only Pollster who has a R + 3 was Gravis so Nelson ahead beween 2-4 is probably about right.

These erratic D + .... Samples really ticked me off cuz that's never happened in a MidTerm in FL.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Of course Rosen and Sisolak aren't doomed or anything, but this doesn't justify the level of confidence some posters are having about this race.

Please tell me NV Dems are not going to blow this. I should be able to be supremely confident about NV. This is not 2010 or 2014, the national environment is good and demographics have continued to shift Dem more quickly in NV than anywhere else. I don't want to have to worry about NV, and shouldn't have to. WTF is wrong with them if this is even a question?

[Antonio the Sixth]

@Antonio Whatever the data says right now, I still think it's worth saying that there is no point getting worked up about this. Just let early voting run its course and then go over the data as a whole. I can only really speak for myself, but I remember getting excited about early voting in 2016, and it was disappointing in the end (albeit not necessarily proportionately disappointing across the country).

Again, what you are saying is absolutely true for every single State except Nevada.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of course Rosen and Sisolak aren't doomed or anything, but this doesn't justify the level of confidence some posters are having about this race.

Please tell me NV Dems are not going to blow this. I should be able to be supremely confident about NV. This is not 2010 or 2014, the national environment is good and demographics have continued to shift Dem more quickly in NV than anywhere else. I don't want to have to worry about NV, and shouldn't have to. WTF is wrong with them if this is even a question?

This is exactly what I'm wondering right now.

[MT Treasurer]

We all know that reading too much into early voting can be a recipe for disaster, but I agree that there’s far more uncertainty this year than in previous midterm elections, especially due to the high turnout.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

-snip-

Not to be that one guy, but it was raining pretty hard across most of the State yesterday, we got 2 inches in Tarrant!

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

-snip-

Not to be that one guy, but it was raining pretty hard across most of the State yesterday, we got 2 inches in Tarrant!

Ah, ok. Thanks. I am not in TX now so I didn't know that (I did actually look up "weather yesterday Dallas" on google, but it didn't say it had rained). So the rain may well explain it, in particular why turnout seemed to drop more in the DFW area.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

-snip-

Not to be that one guy, but it was raining pretty hard across most of the State yesterday, we got 2 inches in Tarrant!

Ah, ok. Thanks. I am not in TX now so I didn't know that (I did actually look up "weather yesterday Dallas" on google, but it didn't say it had rained). So the rain may well explain it, in particular why turnout seemed to drop more in the DFW area.

http://access.tarrantcounty.com/en/elections/Upcoming-Election-Information/Live_Turn_Out_Widget.html Tarrant seems to be recovering today

[2016]

We all know that reading too much into early voting can be a recipe for disaster, but I agree that there’s far more uncertainty this year than in previous midterm elections, especially due to the high turnout.

If I were Garcia/Sinema in AZ I would be worried. By the Time the weekend comes Republicans may very well have a 100K Advantage in Registration. Good Luck overcoming that. The Bottom Line is this: AZ is a Republican State. Heck, there is a reason Democrats haven't won a Senate Seat since 1988 and haven't won a Race for Governor since 2006.

[IceSpear]

Of course Rosen and Sisolak aren't doomed or anything, but this doesn't justify the level of confidence some posters are having about this race.

Please tell me NV Dems are not going to blow this. I should be able to be supremely confident about NV. This is not 2010 or 2014, the national environment is good and demographics have continued to shift Dem more quickly in NV than anywhere else. I don't want to have to worry about NV, and shouldn't have to. WTF is wrong with them if this is even a question?

I mean, as of now there's little reason to think Heller will win unless you think he's going to clean up among independents. And if Dean Heller of all people is cleaning up among independents, I doubt Dems will be having a rosy night overall.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

-snip-

Not to be that one guy, but it was raining pretty hard across most of the State yesterday, we got 2 inches in Tarrant!

Ah, ok. Thanks. I am not in TX now so I didn't know that (I did actually look up "weather yesterday Dallas" on google, but it didn't say it had rained). So the rain may well explain it, in particular why turnout seemed to drop more in the DFW area.

http://access.tarrantcounty.com/en/elections/Upcoming-Election-Information/Live_Turn_Out_Widget.html Tarrant seems to be recovering today

A little bit now in mid-day/early afternoon, but it was lower again in the morning.

[Person Man]

@Antonio Whatever the data says right now, I still think it's worth saying that there is no point getting worked up about this. Just let early voting run its course and then go over the data as a whole. I can only really speak for myself, but I remember getting excited about early voting in 2016, and it was disappointing in the end (albeit not necessarily proportionately disappointing across the country).

We're quite possibly looking at the highest turnout midterm in ~100 years. That adds a level of uncertainty to the predictions game, imo. There is also evidence from the high-turnout special elections we had that not all Republicans can be expected to vote the same way (they might, but there is at least some reason to believe in higher-than-normal splits). So, when in doubt, I try to take the GCB into account as well. The fact that it is constantly hovering around D+7 - 10 and has been for over 1.5 years should count for something. And if that is close to the final result, it would be hard to see how that doesn't affect Nevada somehow.

If we blow it this time, we just need to burn the whole thing down and start over.

[MT Treasurer]

The Bottom Line is this: AZ is a Republican State. Heck, there is a reason Democrats haven't won a Senate Seat since 1988 and haven't won a Race for Governor since 2006.

Such electoral truisms are true until... well, they aren’t. Remember PA/WI/ME-02/etc. being "fool's gold" for Republicans in 2016? Yeah. I’m not denying that McSally or Heller could win, but if they do, it will be because Republicans are having a much better than expected night, not because AZ is impossible for a Democrat to win or fool's gold or whatever.

[Former Kentuckian]

Wouldn't it be nice if we could look at the early voting data and not freak out trying to read tea leaves or argue? That would be nice.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wouldn't it be nice if we could look at the early voting data and not freak out trying to read tea leaves or argue? That would be nice.

It would be nice, but it wouldn't be Atlas.

[KingSweden]

Wouldn't it be nice if we could look at the early voting data and not freak out trying to read tea leaves or argue? That would be nice.

It would be nice, but it wouldn't be Atlas.

[Xing]

While everyone was freaking out about the "Dems in disarray" in Nevada because they're not leading by enough, Democrats gained a couple hundred votes thanks to absentees in Clark. Statewide lead is 3.4K. We'll see if they get to 15K statewide, but the way Independents have been voting this year, I'm not sure they'll need to.

[Former Kentuckian]

Wouldn't it be nice if we could look at the early voting data and not freak out trying to read tea leaves or argue? That would be nice.

It would be nice, but it wouldn't be Atlas.

😹😹😹 I think I need to take a break from reading Atlas until election night.

[KingSweden]

Wouldn't it be nice if we could look at the early voting data and not freak out trying to read tea leaves or argue? That would be nice.

It would be nice, but it wouldn't be Atlas.

😹😹😹 I think I need to take a break from reading Atlas until election night.

DKE is starting to get similar though it’s a *tad* better

[IceSpear]

While everyone was freaking out about the "Dems in disarray" in Nevada because they're not leading by enough, Democrats gained a couple hundred votes thanks to absentees in Clark. Statewide lead is 3.4K. We'll see if they get to 15K statewide, but the way Independents have been voting this year, I'm not sure they'll need to.

Maybe I'm the idiot and am missing something incredibly obvious here, but as you said, I don't see why Dems need a ridiculously gaudy vote margin otherwise the Unbeatable Titan is inevitable. They ended up needing it in 2016, but that was because independents broke heavily for Trump. The idea that they'd need it again seems to be predicated upon the assumption that they will also break heavily for Heller, which...is certainly not a safe one.