Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1055322364718641152

Democrats add another 2300 votes to their #ClarkFirewall.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1055322364718641152

Democrats add another 2300 votes to their #ClarkFirewall.

Not bad, this will probably bring the overall vote total to a draw or slight Democratic lead for the day. But hopefully Democrats can get over 10% in Clark by the end, since that's just about what they need to feel confident about winning.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/sorceror43/status/1055322364718641152

Democrats add another 2300 votes to their #ClarkFirewall.

There we go

[junior chįmp]

Amasing....this midterm is maybe on its way to having the highest voter turnout since 1914

https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1055300137168367617

[Antonio the Sixth]

Any news on how the rurals are turning out in Nevada?

[Annatar]

The way I see it in Nevada so far is that the Dems are doing better in Washoe then 2016, GOP doing better in Clark County and the rurals seem to be basically the same. Overall since Clark is bigger then Washoe, the balance favours the GOP but still it looks like it will be a tight election. Numbers look better for GOP vs 2016, but better for Dems vs 2014.

If compared to 2016, after week 1, Dem lead was 27,100 votes, so far after 5 days, Dem lead is 5,200 with some rural counties still to report for day 5, will only make a difference of a few hundred votes. Currently Dems are on track to get a 7,000 vote lead by end of week 1, down about 20,000 from 2016 levels.

In week 2 of 2016, Dems added another 18,400 onto their lead for a total early vote plus absentee lead of around 45,000, Clinton won the state by 27,000.

I would say at this point if Dem lead statewide is under 15,000 once early voting is completed, GOP will feel good, if it is 15,000 - 20,000, Dems will feel good, if its over 20,000, considering turnout in 2018 is probably going to be down 25% from 2016 levels, Dems will feel very good, as 20,000 lead with 25% lower turnout is more like having a 26,700 vote lead in 2016.

[Adam Griffin]

Democrats have been consistently winning 60-75% of independents in high-turnout special elections all across this country for the past 2 years. I'm not sure why everybody is obsessing over simple D-R turnout figures; it is not going to paint a full picture. I'm glad we don't have them in my state.

[wbrocks67]

Democrats have been consistently winning 60-75% of independents in high-turnout special elections all across this country for the past 2 years. I'm not sure why everybody is obsessing over simple D-R turnout figures; it is not going to paint a full picture. I'm glad we don't have them in my state.

Yeah, I know Ralston is an expert, but he seems to be focusing too close on the D-R gap. When he reports 45-35 in Clark, that means *20%* of Indies voted. That is a HUGE chunk, and they are going to make or break either side (I would assume Dems because that's what the polling has told us over the past 2 years)

[wbrocks67]

The way I see it in Nevada so far is that the Dems are doing better in Washoe then 2016, GOP doing better in Clark County and the rurals seem to be basically the same. Overall since Clark is bigger then Washoe, the balance favours the GOP but still it looks like it will be a tight election. Numbers look better for GOP vs 2016, but better for Dems vs 2014.

If compared to 2016, after week 1, Dem lead was 27,100 votes, so far after 5 days, Dem lead is 5,200 with some rural counties still to report for day 5, will only make a difference of a few hundred votes. Currently Dems are on track to get a 7,000 vote lead by end of week 1, down about 20,000 from 2016 levels.

In week 2 of 2016, Dems added another 18,400 onto their lead for a total early vote plus absentee lead of around 45,000, Clinton won the state by 27,000.

I would say at this point if Dem lead statewide is under 15,000 once early voting is completed, GOP will feel good, if it is 15,000 - 20,000, Dems will feel good, if its over 20,000, considering turnout in 2018 is probably going to be down 25% from 2016 levels, Dems will feel very good, as 20,000 lead with 25% lower turnout is more like having a 26,700 vote lead in 2016.

If Dems are doing better in Washoe, slightly worse in Clark, and the rurals are about the same, how was it so much bigger in 2016 (20k?). Are we just talking about proportions here though because the overall total was also bigger in 2016? (so thats why 27k seems so much bigger)

[bilaps]

So the latest update from FL shows still 56k vbm lead for republicans but democrats early vote edge has actualy gotten smaller.

168,548
165,601

In total with early vote (where not all counties are reporting but the biggest are) and VBM around 1,7 million people have already voted.

[wbrocks67]

So the latest update from FL shows still 56k vbm lead for republicans but democrats early vote edge has actualy gotten smaller.

168,548
165,601

In total with early vote (where not all counties are reporting but the biggest are) and VBM around 1,7 million people have already voted.

It would be really fantastic if Dems would freaking return their ballots.

[Annatar]

If Dems are doing better in Washoe, slightly worse in Clark, and the rurals are about the same, how was it so much bigger in 2016 (20k?). Are we just talking about proportions here though because the overall total was also bigger in 2016? (so thats why 27k seems so much bigger)

Issue is Clark is 68% of total vote vs Washoe which is 19% so under performance in Clark hurts more.

Central issue so far is Dems lead in Clark by 40,000 votes or 15.3% in week 1 2016, so far, with 5 days in, Dem lead in Clark is only 12,500 or 8.8% of all votes cast, and Dems did worse as vote progressed, Clinton won county by 10.7%.

Other more minor issue is GOP turnout statewide is about 60% of 2016 week 1 levels with 2 days to go, Dem turnout is 53%. Of course, if Dems can get more independents, they can make up some of the fall off in turnout.

Virtually all of the Dem under performance vs 2016 right now in Nevada is occurring in Clark. Right now, Dem-GOP spread in early vote alone is around 12% of total Clark vote, was 21% in week 1 2016.

[SCNCmod]

Democrats have been consistently winning 60-75% of independents in high-turnout special elections all across this country for the past 2 years. I'm not sure why everybody is obsessing over simple D-R turnout figures; it is not going to paint a full picture. I'm glad we don't have them in my state.

It seems like Dems getting somewhere in the low 60% of Independents will likely be the key in many/most of these Senate races.   So I hope the special election % holds true for Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Indiana.

[Brittain33]

Virtually all of the Dem under performance vs 2016 right now in Nevada is occurring in Clark. Right now, Dem-GOP spread in early vote alone is around 12% of total Clark vote, was 21% in week 1 2016.

From what I've seen of Ralston's posts, the Dem underperformance in Clark is really Republican overperformance against past weakness. It's the same thing as far as the end result but the cause is different.

[wbrocks67]

Is Clark just waiting to vote or something? I just find it odd that the GOP are the ones that are suddenly turning out in NV instead of Dems.

[bilaps]

Is Clark just waiting to vote or something? I just find it odd that the GOP are the ones that are suddenly turning out in NV instead of Dems.

As it is said in a post above yours Dems are somewhere around their registration in Clark, Republicans are the ones overperforming their registration.

[Gass3268]

Is Clark just waiting to vote or something? I just find it odd that the GOP are the ones that are suddenly turning out in NV instead of Dems.

They are adding about a 2,000 vote lead every day. If that holds up, it will add up. Also weekends and week two need to be bigger, as so Ralston says.

[Former Kentuckian]

Minnesota, Delaware, and Tennessee have surpassed their 2014 early vote numbers.

[bilaps]

Current D lead in Clark (so called firewall) is 12,5k

Current statewide lead 4400 but it will come down after absentees from Nye are distributed and when they update other rurals still missing from yesterday (most notably Nye and Lyon).

Numbers to hit according to Ralston are 35k and 15k

I'm thinking that Rs could win the day today in Washoe.

[IceSpear]

It's funny that people are making the assumption that independents are going to give Heller the same margin they gave Trump when independents pretty much everywhere have swung D since 2016, sometimes massively.

[bilaps]

It's funny that people are making the assumption that independents are going to give Heller the same margin they gave Trump when independents pretty much everywhere have swung D since 2016, sometimes massively.

Who makes this assumption?

[Seattle]

The WA big 5 as of 10/23 (except for Snohomish, which reports in the morning the previous day's totals):
                  Ballots:Turnout:
King:           52,776   4.09%
Pierce:         27,133   5.52%
Snohomish:  17,140   3.68% (9/22)
Spokane:     32,297   10.09% (wowza!)
Clark:          17,898   6.36%

10/24 update (again, except for Snohomish, which is a day behind:

                      Ballots:        Turnout:
King:             132,349   10.26%
Pierce:            43,015   8.75%
Snohomish:     27,891   5.99%
Spokane:        46,333   14.47%  (less, wowza, but still high)
Clark:             28,081   9.97%
Thurston:        20,956   11.60%
Kitsap:            21,218   12.70%
Yakima:          13,514   11.65%
Whatcom:       17,423   12.23%

State:             420,999      9.76%
(Doesn't include 10/24 Snohomish data and who knows how accurate the smaller counties are)

[Xing]

It's funny that people are making the assumption that independents are going to give Heller the same margin they gave Trump when independents pretty much everywhere have swung D since 2016, sometimes massively.

There's only the fact that Ralston himself doubts that Republicans will end up getting the same margins in the rurals as Trump did. While I was a little worried on Monday, since Clark was looking pretty bad relative to registration numbers, it's been better the past two days, and if it holds up, I'll feel pretty good about Rosen's chances.

[IceSpear]

It's funny that people are making the assumption that independents are going to give Heller the same margin they gave Trump when independents pretty much everywhere have swung D since 2016, sometimes massively.

Who makes this assumption?

There's been tons of hand wringing in this thread about how Heller has this in the bag because the Dem advantage in ballots cast isn't large enough. The only way it "isn't large enough" is if you assume independents go big for Heller.

[Gass3268]

As long as Democrats keep adding about 2,000 to their lead in Clark each day I'll be happy. Also I imagine this next weekend is going to be big.