Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[Seattle]

The WA big 5 as of 10/23 (except for Snohomish, which reports in the morning the previous day's totals):
                  Ballots:   Turnout:
King:           52,776   4.09%
Pierce:         27,133   5.52%
Snohomish:  17,140   3.68% (9/22)
Spokane:     32,297   10.09% (wowza!)
Clark:          17,898   6.36%

[KingSweden]

The WA big 5 as of 10/23 (except for Snohomish, which reports in the morning the previous day's totals):
                  Ballots:   Turnout:
King:           52,776   4.09%
Pierce:         27,133   5.52%
Snohomish:  17,140   3.68% (9/22)
Spokane:     32,297   10.09% (wowza!)
Clark:          17,898   6.36%

....

That Spokane number is INSANE

[Dr. Arch]

Hopefully we get more of these so that the GOP knows to stay home

https://twitter.com/DrTurleyTalks/status/1054858033359151107

"Nightmare scenario" lol. Well, if Democrats end up losing in 2018, it will be a "nightmare scenario" for this country, not just Democrats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The WA big 5 as of 10/23 (except for Snohomish, which reports in the morning the previous day's totals):
                  Ballots:   Turnout:
King:           52,776   4.09%
Pierce:         27,133   5.52%
Snohomish:  17,140   3.68% (9/22)
Spokane:     32,297   10.09% (wowza!)
Clark:          17,898   6.36%

....

That Spokane number is INSANE

I'd love to be the fly on the wall at CMR's campaign HQ

[Hindsight was 2020]

Why no Florida #’s for today?

[KingSweden]

The WA big 5 as of 10/23 (except for Snohomish, which reports in the morning the previous day's totals):
                  Ballots:   Turnout:
King:           52,776   4.09%
Pierce:         27,133   5.52%
Snohomish:  17,140   3.68% (9/22)
Spokane:     32,297   10.09% (wowza!)
Clark:          17,898   6.36%

....

That Spokane number is INSANE

I'd love to be the fly on the wall at CMR's campaign HQ

I still think CMR wins but there are legislative races in Spokane that are very gettable

[TheRocketRaccoon]

First weekend - Democrats are turning out in droves!
First week - Not looking good for Democrats!
Second weekend - Huge surge for Democrats!
Second week - Republicans are making a comeback!
Third weekend - Democrats have probably won.

Hahahahahaha

Hit the nail right on the head.

I don’t remember Ralston being concerned about Hillary in the slightest during EV in Nevada

2010 patterns =/= 2012 patterns =/= 2014 patterns =/= 2016 patterns in NV. It is really hard to tell what is going on now.

[RI]

The WA big 5 as of 10/23 (except for Snohomish, which reports in the morning the previous day's totals):
                  Ballots:   Turnout:
King:           52,776   4.09%
Pierce:         27,133   5.52%
Snohomish:  17,140   3.68% (9/22)
Spokane:     32,297   10.09% (wowza!)
Clark:          17,898   6.36%

....

That Spokane number is INSANE

LD 4 (Spokane Valley and east) has the highest return rate, although LD 3 (Spokane proper) is not far behind. The rural areas to the north and south of the county are lagging behind.

[KingSweden]

The WA big 5 as of 10/23 (except for Snohomish, which reports in the morning the previous day's totals):
                  Ballots:   Turnout:
King:           52,776   4.09%
Pierce:         27,133   5.52%
Snohomish:  17,140   3.68% (9/22)
Spokane:     32,297   10.09% (wowza!)
Clark:          17,898   6.36%

....

That Spokane number is INSANE

LD 4 (Spokane Valley and east) has the highest return rate, although LD 3 (Spokane proper) is not far behind. The rural areas to the north and south of the county are lagging behind.

Probably not a surprise - the two most polarized areas.

[Beet]

In Clark County, the Dem returns are about 27% over Rep returns so far, whereas in 2016 they were 53% over Rep returns. This indicates good news for Republicans in Nevada. But again, keep calling me a troll for summarizing the data.

[Gass3268]

In Clark County, the Dem returns are about 27% over Rep returns so far, whereas in 2016 they were 53% over Rep returns. This indicates good news for Republicans in Nevada. But again, keep calling me a troll for summarizing the data.

Wow! Dominating compared to the last midterms!

[Beet]

In Clark County, the Dem returns are about 27% over Rep returns so far, whereas in 2016 they were 53% over Rep returns. This indicates good news for Republicans in Nevada. But again, keep calling me a troll for summarizing the data.

Wow! Dominating compared to the last midterms!

You mean the one where Sandoval won by 47%? Sure, Wacky Jacky will outperform Bob Goodman.

[Gass3268]

In Clark County, the Dem returns are about 27% over Rep returns so far, whereas in 2016 they were 53% over Rep returns. This indicates good news for Republicans in Nevada. But again, keep calling me a troll for summarizing the data.

Wow! Dominating compared to the last midterms!

You mean the one where Sandoval won by 47%? Sure, Wacky Jacky will outperform Bob Goodman.

In his blog, Ralston posted "—Comparisons to 2016 are not apt, people. It’s 2014 or maybe 2010, as you can see in my initial post."

[Hindsight was 2020]

In Clark County, the Dem returns are about 27% over Rep returns so far, whereas in 2016 they were 53% over Rep returns. This indicates good news for Republicans in Nevada. But again, keep calling me a troll for summarizing the data.

Yeah I’ve been mr doom and gloom here today but those #’s aren’t that bad Beet

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

In Clark County, the Dem returns are about 27% over Rep returns so far, whereas in 2016 they were 53% over Rep returns. This indicates good news for Republicans in Nevada. But again, keep calling me a troll for summarizing the data.

Yeah I’ve been mr doom and gloom here today but those #’s aren’t that bad Bagel

That's Beet, and I'm Bagel, and for the record, even I think Rosen wins.

[ON Progressive]

In Clark County, the Dem returns are about 27% over Rep returns so far, whereas in 2016 they were 53% over Rep returns. This indicates good news for Republicans in Nevada. But again, keep calling me a troll for summarizing the data.

That 27% figure would actually be better than 2010, and definitely better than 2014.

[Hindsight was 2020]

In Clark County, the Dem returns are about 27% over Rep returns so far, whereas in 2016 they were 53% over Rep returns. This indicates good news for Republicans in Nevada. But again, keep calling me a troll for summarizing the data.

Yeah I’ve been mr doom and gloom here today but those #’s aren’t that bad Bagel

That's Beet, and I'm Bagel, and for the record, even I think Rosen wins.

Whoops

[NOVA Green]

Oregon Update:

We now have Two days worth of Ballots returned (Friday 10/20 and Monday 10/23).

33,342 DEM (50.4% D)- 18,514 REP (28.0%).

This was heavily driven by 4.1% of the RVs in Multnomah County having cast ballots, vs 2.4% Statewide Ballot Returns to date.

Heavily Democratic Counties such as Benton County (3.7% Ballots returned), Hood River (5.2% Ballots Returned), and Clatsop County (4.5% of Ballots returned) add a downstate flair.

Still heavily Democratic and large population Center Lane County is only at (2.3% of Ballots returned).

Heavily Republican Linn County is sitting at 2.6% returned, while overwhelmingly Republican Douglas County (Decent Sized population center is at only 0.9% returned).

Meanwhile, we have no real answers as to heavily Dem Washington County (2.1% Returned) in Federal Elections, but is obviously a place where the 'Pubs will need to crack some major Dem margins.

Flip over to Clackamas County (2.6% Returned) Southeast Portland 'Burbs and Exurbs plus Rurals.

Deschutes clocks in at 3.1% of Ballots returned in Central Oregon (Which is one of those Counties on my Dem flip list in 2020 with Trump on the Ballot).

Jackson County (Major Pop Center in CD-02) is only at 0.7%, and Josephine is only at 0.1%.

Plenty of time on the clock here, and generally voter turnout in Oregon, even in Midterms tends to be much higher than the Average, especially since VbM and AVR.

We can't read too much into these numbers yet, considering that some voters in rural areas, will put their ballots in the Mailbox and pay the extra Cents, certain larger more concentrated population centers, even downstate, might be more likely to just drop it in the local drop-box on the way home from work.

Certain Counties might have sent out ballots slightly earlier than others, etc....

Looking at the major Democratic Breadbasket Multnomah County the numbers are currently 62.7% D- 15.4% R....

Take it for what it's worth, thus far, and hopefully I'll be able to provide more detailed breakdowns by party by county, once we start to see the next wave of ballots roll in through Friday.

[Devout Centrist]

In Clark County, the Dem returns are about 27% over Rep returns so far, whereas in 2016 they were 53% over Rep returns. This indicates good news for Republicans in Nevada. But again, keep calling me a troll for summarizing the data.

Wow, Harry Reid is doomed

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Early voting still seems to be at/near/exceeding Presidential levels in heavily Hispanic TX counties. Relatively a bit higher in Cameron and Nueces (and I presume still El Paso), a bit lower in Hidalgo:

https://twitter.com/TheRomanPerez/status/1054933662054129664

https://twitter.com/TheRomanPerez/status/1054952022963863552

https://twitter.com/TheRomanPerez/status/1054931399965319168



Los Hispanos estan votando.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

That's Beet, and I'm Bagel, and for the record, even I think Rosen wins.

The NV Dems would have to be even more incompetent than the FL Dems for Rosen not to win. I assume that won't happen.

[Xing]

The WA big 5 as of 10/23 (except for Snohomish, which reports in the morning the previous day's totals):
                  Ballots:   Turnout:
King:           52,776   4.09%
Pierce:         27,133   5.52%
Snohomish:  17,140   3.68% (9/22)
Spokane:     32,297   10.09% (wowza!)
Clark:          17,898   6.36%

That Spokane number is impressive. It'll be interesting to see if it holds up, even though I'm kind of bearish on Brown's chances.

[RI]

I highly, highly doubt CMR loses.

[Xing]

Clark was a bit better for Democrats today. 25.4K voted, Democrats won by about 10% (45.2-35.3), padding their lead by 2.5K.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Clark was a bit better for Democrats today. 25.4K voted, Democrats won by about 10% (45.2-35.3), padding their lead by 2.5K.

Nice. Not great but a better result then the last two days